Fuel-Grade Petroleum Coke Year in Review

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Fuel-Grade Petroleum CokeYear in Review

• McCloskeys Petcoke Conference
• July 2004
• Presented by
• J. David Gipson

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Jacobs Consultancy

• Formerly The Pace Consultants Inc. - practice
  founded in 1957
• Flexible staff of energy experts
• Refining and petrochemical
• Natural gas
• Power markets
• Since 1983, considered the authoritative and
  unique source on petroleum coke
• Petroleum Coke Quarterly (PCQ)
• www.petcokes.com
• Petroleum Coke Conference (March 2004, Charlotte,
  NC)

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(No Transcript)
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The Year in Fuel-Grade Petcoke

• Petroleum Coke Production to All-Time High
• Freight Costs Skyrocket
• All Eyes on China
• Other Developments/Issues

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U.S. Gulf Coast Petroleum Coke Production
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U.S. Gulf Coast Fuel-Grade Exports
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U.S. Gulf Coast Petcoke Exports

• European Receipts Grow with U.S. Production
• Continue Demand from Latin America

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U.S. West Coast Petroleum Coke Production
Thousand MT
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US Petcoke Production 2003Metric Tons
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U.S. West Coast Fuel-Grade Exports
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U.S. West Coast Petcoke Exports

• Drop in Exports to Europe
• Increase to Asia (non-Japan)

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Freight Contribution to USGC Petcoke Price
Delivered to the Mediterranean
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Freight Contribution to USWC Petcoke Price
Delivered to Japan
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Chinese Petcoke Production
Thousand MT
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Chinese Green Petcoke ImportsApril YTD 2004 vs.
2003
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Green Petcoke Exports to ChinaYTD April 2004 vs
2003 (MT)
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Other Developments /Issues

• Acquisition of AIMCOR by Oxbow
• Opening of TGS Deepwater Terminal
• Restart of ConocoPhillips Wood River Coker
• Continued Questions Over LAXT Future
• How long will petcoke continue to move through?
• Port Security and Petcoke
• Strong Demand for Calcinable Quality Petcoke
• Low sulfur/metals cokes not increasing

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Conclusions

• Outlook for New Cokers Strong
• Solution to increase refinery outputs
• Buyers Adapting to Volatile Freight Rates
• Strong Demand from Asia Should Continue
• Aided by high coal prices
• More Gulf Coast/Caribbean Petcoke to Far East
  Expected