Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment

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Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment

• Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
• K. Rupa Kumar

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in
India Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002
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The People

• Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI)
• Dr. K. Krishna Kumar
• Mr. C.M. Mohile
• Mrs. S.K. Patwardhan
• Dr. P.K. Mishra
• Dr. G.B. Pant
• Collaborators/Consultants
• Dr. D.B. Stephenson, University of Reading
• Mr. D. Hassell, Hadley Centre
• Prof. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra University

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OUTLINE

• Objectives
• Research Tasks
• Observed climate change in India
• Coupled model projections
• HadRM2 diagnostics and scenarios
• HadRM3H installation at IITM

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Objectives

• Evaluation of Regional Climate Model simulations
  for Indian climate
• Estimation of uncertainties in model-based
  predictions
• Development of future climate scenarios for India
  during the 21st century
• Preparation of climate change scenario products
  for impact assessments

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Research Tasks

• Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for India
• Development of climate change scenarios based on
  HadRM2 experiments
• Installation of HadRM3H at IITM
• Sensitivity experiments with HadRM3H
• Climate change scenario runs with HadRM3H
• Quantification of key uncertainties

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All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall
(1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly
Rainfall Data Set)
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Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
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All-India Mean Surface Temperatures(1901-2000)
Based on a constant network of 31 stations
well-distributed over India
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Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Surface Air
Temperature
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Diurnal Asymmetry of All-India Mean Annual
Temperature Trends
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Mean Annual Cycles of Observed and
SimulatedAll-India Monthly Rainfall Surface
Air Temperature
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Models Temp Maps
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Models - RF Maps
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Models RF Contr
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Models RF CV
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Temp Series
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MonRF Series
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Climate Change over India in Transient
Simulations (1980-2039 relative to 1920-79)
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Models-MonRF var
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MonRF Change - ECHAM
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MonRF Change HadCM3
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The Hadley Centre Regional Climate
Models(HadRM2/HadRM3H)

• High-resolution limited area model driven at its
  lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from
  HadCM
• Formulation identical to HadAM
• Grid 0.44 x 0.44
• One-way nesting
• Climate change simulations performed by the
  Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region
• HadRM3H installed at IITM Climate change
  simulations and scenario development will be
  performed at IITM

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All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall
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All-India Seasonal Rainfall
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All-India mean Surface Air Temperature
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HadRM2 Simulations Seasonal Precipitation
(Control)
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HadRM2 Simulations Seasonal Surface Air
Temperature (Control)
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HadRM2 Simulations Seasonal Precipitation
(GHG-Control)
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HadRM2 Simulations Seasonal Surface Air
Temperature (GHG-Control)
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State-wise mean precipitation scenarios HadRM2
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State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change
scenarios HadRM2
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State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios HadRM2
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State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change
Scenarios HadRM2
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HadRM2 scenarios for distribution among impact
groups

• Two experiments Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and
  IS92a scenario (2041-60)
• Each experiment has 20 years data
• Monthly and Daily data on various parameters
• Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid
  spacing
• Spatial means for administrative units (other
  spatial units can be included)
• One standard CD set of monthly data with basic
  climatic elements, and specialized data CDs based
  on impact groups requirement