ECONOMICS

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ECONOMICS
MICROECONOMICS
MACROECONOMICS
What Macroeconomist Study?
Why have some countries experienced rapid growth
in incomes over the past century while others
stay mired in poverty? Why do some countries have
high rates inflation while others maintain stable
price? Why do all countries experience recessions
and depressions recurrent periods of falling
income and rising unemployment and how government
policy reduce the frequency and severity of these
episodes? Macroeconomist, the study of the
economy as a whole, attempts to answer these and
many related questions
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Theory as Model Building
Models are simplified theories that show the key
relationships among economic variables
Exogenous variables
Endogenous variables
Economic model
Figure 1. The Working of an Economic Model
TUJUANMODEL MENUNJUKKAN BAGAIMANA VARIABEL
EKSOGEN MEMPENGARUHI VARIABEL ENDOGEN
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Qd f ( P, Y)
Qs f ( P, Pm)
Qs Qd
P
Supply
Market Equilibrium
Demand
Q
Figure 1.2 The Model Supply and Demand
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(a). A Shift in Demand
P
S
P2
P1
D2
D1
Q
Q1
Q2
(b) A Shift in Supply
P
S2
S1
P2
P1
D1
Q
Q2
Q1
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Using Function to Express Relationships Among
Variables
A function is a mathematical concept that show
one variable depends on a set of other variables
QD F (P, Y)
QD 60 10P 2Y
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Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a
whole - including growth in income, changes in
prices and rate of unemployment. Macroeconomist
attempt both to explain economic events and to
devise policies to improve economic performance
To understand the economy, economist use model
theories that simplify reality in order to reveal
show how exogenous variable influence endogenous
variables. The art in the science of economics is
in judging whether a model captures the important
economic relationships for the matter at hand.
Because no single model can answer all questions,
macroeconomist use different model to look at
different issues
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NATIONAL-INCOME ACCOUNTING GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT AND THE PRICE LEVEL
Chapter 2 (Macroeconomics A Modern Approach)

• Flows and Stocks Variables
• Some Frequently Used Terms
• (i). Output (Product), Income Expenditure
• (ii). Domestic and National
• (iii). Gross and Net
• (iv). Markets Price and Factor Cost
• (v). Nominal and Real

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C. Aggregate Income, Output (Product)
Expenditure
(i). The Simplest Economy Households Firms
Factors of Production
Income (Y)
Firms
Households
Consumers Expenditure
Goods Services
Figure 4. Real and Money Flows in the Simplest
Economy
Money flow Continuous lines
Real flow Dash lines
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(ii). Saving by Households
Incomes
Factors of Production
Incomes
Capital Goods
Factors of Production
HOUSEHOLDS
FIRMS C
FIRMS K
Investment Expenditure
Consumers Goods
Saving
Consumers Expenditure
Figure 5. Real Money Flows in Economy with
Saving Investment
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Incomes (Y)
Factors of Production
H
F
Goods Services
Investment
Saving
Consumers Expenditures (C)
Figure 6. Real Money Flow in an Economy with
Saving Investment Simplified
Y C I
Y C S
S I
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Y
H
F
S
I
C
Figure 7. The Money Flows in an Economy with
Saving and Investment A More Abstract
Representation
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(iii). Government Expenditure and Taxes
H
F
GOV
T
G
S
I
(iv). The Rest of the World
EX
H
R
F
GOV
T
G
S
IM
I
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Y C I G
Y C S T
Y C I G EX - IM
I G EX S T IM
(I-S) (G T) (EX IM) O
D. Measuring Aggregate Income
(i). The Expenditure Approach (ii). The Factor
Income Approach (iii). The Output Approach
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MEASURING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
GDP A MEASURE OF THE VALUE OF ALL GOODS
SERVICES NEWLY PRODUCED IN AN ECONOMY DURING A
SPECIFIED PERIOD OF TIME
WHAT? WHRE? WHEN?
GDP VS GNP
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THREE WAYS OF MEASURING GDP

1. THE PRODUCTION APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP
2. THE SPENDING APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP
3. THE INCOME APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP

• MANFAAT DIKETAHUINYA GDP
• MENGUKUR PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI
• MENGETAHUI STRUKTUR EKONOMI
• MEMBANDINGKAN PEREKONOMIAN ANTAR NEGARA

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What Determines the Demand for Goods Services?

• The four component of GDP
• Consumption (C)
• Investment (I)
• Government purchases (G)
• Net Export (NX)

Y C I G (X - M)
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Consumption
C C(Y-T)
MPC
C
0,70
Consumption function
MPC
Y- T
The Consumption Function
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TEORI-TEORI KONSUMSI

• John Maynard Keynes and the Consumption Function
• Irving Fisher and Inter temporal Choice
• Franco Modigliani and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis
• Milton Friedman and the Permanent-Income
  Hypothesis
• Robert Hall and the Random-Walk Hypothesis

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Investment
I I (r)
The nominal interest rate The real interest rate
r
I I (r)
I
The investment Function
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Government Purchases
20 of GDP
a balance budget
G T
G G
T T
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Equilibrium in the Market for Goods and
Services The Supply and Demand for the Economy
Output
Y F(K, L)
Y C I G
Y
C C(Y- T)
Y C(Y-T) I(r) G
I I(r)
Y C(Y-T) I(r) G
G G
T T
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Equilibrium in the Financial Markets The Supply
and Demand for Loanable Funds
Y C G I
S (Y-T-C) (T- G) I
Y- C(Y-T) - G I(r)
Y- C(Y-T) - G I(r)
S I(r)
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Real interest rate
Saving (S)
Equilibrium r
Desired investment, I(r)
S
Investment, Saving
Saving, Investment and the Interest Rate
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Changes in Saving The effects of Fiscal Policy
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MONETARY THEORY AND POLICY
APAKAH TEORI MONETER?
TEORI MONETER TEORI MENGENAI PASAR UANG
TEORI MENGENAI PERMINTAAN (MD) PENAWARAN UANG (MS)
INTI TEORI MONETER ANALISIS TENTANG FAKTOR2 APA
YG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN AKAN UANG (DEMAND FOR
MONEY) DAN FAKTOR2 APA YG MEMPENGARUHI PENAWARAN
UANG (SUPPLY OF MONEY)
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PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN DI PASAR UANG

• AKAN MENENTUKAN HARGA
• TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA
• TINGKAT HARGA UMUM

KEYNES KEYNESIANS
CLASSIC MONETARIST
IMPLIKASI TEROTIS KEBIJAKAN YG BERBEDA
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MENGAPA PERUBAHAN KONDISI PASAR UANG YANG
DICERMINKAN OLEH PERUBAHAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA
ATAU TINGKAT HARGA PENTING ????

• DEFINING MONEY BY ITS FUNCTIONS
• MEANS OF EXCHANGE (PAYMENT)
• MEASURE OF VALUE
• THE UNIT OF ACCOUNT
• THE STORE OF VALUE OR STORE OF WEALTH

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TEORI KUANTITAS KEYNESIANS SEPAKAT MENGENAI
THE STORE OF VALUE OR STORE OF WEALTH
KEPUTUSAN MENGENAI BERAPA BESAR UANG TUNAI YG
KITA PEGANG ATAU BERAPA BESAR SALDO POS KAS YG
KITA INGINKAN DLM NERACA KITA. MERUPAKAN
KEPUTUSAN EKONOMIS YG KITA DASARKAN ATAS
UNTUNG-RUGI. KEPUTUSAN TENTANG SALDO KAS VS
MEMBELI SURAT BERHARGA (BONDS OR STOCKS)
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DEFINISI UANG MENURUT PENCIPTANYA (1). MONEY
BASE (RESERVE MONEY OR HIGH-POWER MONEY), (2).
M1 KARTAL GIRAL) (3). M2 M1 QUASI MONEY
KESEIMBANGAN PASAR UANG TERJADI JIKA MS MD
MS MONEY SUPPLY
MS f (Y, rKRDT, rDEPO,A).B
MS f (Y, rKRDT, rDEPO,A).B (X1, X2,.Xn)
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UANG PRIMER MONETARY BASE (B)
(ALN-PLN) (TP-DP) (TB) (AL-PL) C R B
MO
FAKTOR2 YG MEMPENGARUHI UANG PRIMER
TABEL 1.1 NERACA KONSOLIDASI OTORITAS MONETER
AKTIVA PASIVA
AKTIVA LUAR NEGERI (ALN) TAGIHAN PADA PEMERINTAH (TP) TAGIHAN PADA BANK-BANK UMUM (TB) AKTIVA LAIN (AL) UANG KARTAL YG ADA DIMASYARAKAT (C) CADANGAN BANK UMUM (R) DEPOSITO PEMERINTAH (DP) PASIVA LUAR NEGERI (PLN) PASIVA LAIN (PL)
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ANGKA PENGGANDA UANG MONEY MULTIPLIER (m)
MS mB
m B/ MS
CP mc B
DD md B
M1 m1 B
QM mq B
M2 m2 B
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PENCIPTAAN KOMPONEN UANG BEREDAR OLEH SISTEM
PERBANKAN
SC TPSb TPPb mb.B
KETERANGAN
mb ANGKA PENGGANDA AKTIVA BPUG
TPSb TAGIHAN PADA SEKTOR PEMERINTAH
TPPb TAGIHAN PADA PERUSAHAAN PERORANGAN
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THE DEMAND FOR MONEY
THE QUANTITY THEORY 0F MONEY AND CAMRIDGE APROACH
MV PT
IRVING FISHER
MV PY
CAMBRIDGE APROACH
Y GDP REAL
Md 1/V.PY
V 1/k
Md k PY
PENDAPATAN NASIONAL RIIL (Y) k ADALAH KOSTAN
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THE INTEREST RATE AS A DETERMINANT OF MONEY DEMAND
KEYNES (1936) INTRODUCE S THREE MOTIVESS FOR
HOLDING MONEY

1. A TRANSSACTION MOTIVE (BUSSINES MOTIVE) Mt
2. A PRECAUTIONARY MOTIVE (Mp)
3. A SPECULATIVE MOTIVE (Ms)

Mt Mp f (Y)
Ms f (r)
K r P
P K/r
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HOW THE QUANTITY OF MONEY IS CONTROLLED?
THE QUANTITY OF MONEY A VAILABLE IN AN ECONOMY IS
CALLED THE MONEY SUPPLY (MS)
THE CONTROL OVER THE MONEY SUPPLY IS CALLED
MONETARY POLICY
IN INDONESIA MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, MONETARY
POLICY IS DELEGATED TO INDEPENDENT INSTITUTION
CALLED THE CENTRAL BANK (BI)
UU NO.23 TAHUN 1999 UU NO.3 TAHUN 2004
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INFLATION MONEY GROWTH
SEIGNIORAGE THE REVENUE FROM PRINTING MONEY
INFLATION INTEREST RATES
INTEREST RATES NOMINAL REAL
r i - p
Fisher equation
i r p
The nominal interest rate can change for two
reasons because the real interest rate changes
or because the inflation rate changes
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The Quantity Theory of Money the rate of money
growth determines the rate of inflation
The Fisher equation the real interest rate the
inflation rate together to determine the nominal
interest rate
The Quantity Theory of Money The Fisher
Equation together tell us how money growth
affects the nominal interest rate
According the Quantity theory an increase in the
rate of money growth of 1 percent cause a 1
percent increase in the rate of inflation.
According to the Fisher Equation a 1 percent
increase in the rate of inflation in turn causes
a 1 percent increase in the nominal interest rate
The One-for-One relation between the inflation
rate and the nominal interest rate is called the
Fisher Effect
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Two Real Interest Rates Ex Ante Ex Post
The ex ante real interest rate Tingkat bunga
riil yg diharapkan pemberi pinjaman peminjam
ketika kesepakatan dibuat
The ex post real interest rate Tingkat bunga
riil yg terealisasi secara nyata
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Transmissions Mechanism Monetary Policy
Operational Target
Instruments
Intermediate Target
Final Target
JANGKAR NOMINAL
Inflation Targeting
SKEMA 1. KERANGKA OPERASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER
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SISTEM OPERASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER
Quantity Approach TEORI KUANTITAS MV PT
Interest Rate or Price Approach TEORI Keynesians
INSTRUMEN-INSTRUMEN LANGSUNG TIDAK LANGSUNG

• INSTRUMEN TDK LANGSUNG
• OPERASI PASAR TERBUKA (OPT)
• GIRO WAJIB MINIMUM
• TINGKAT BUNGA DISKONTO
• INSTRUMEN PERSUASIF

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SECARA UMUM MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER
MENGGAMBARKAN BAGAIMANA KEBIJAKAN MONETER OLEH
BANK SENTRAL DPT MEMPENGARUHI AKTIVITAS EK
KEUANGAN HINGGA TERWUJUDNYA FINAL TARGET
(INFLASI)
SECARA SPESIFIK Taylor (1995) The process
through which monetary policy decision are
transmitted into changes in real GDP and inflation
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KEBIJAKAN MONETER
TUJUAN AKHIR INFLASI
?
SKEMA 2. MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER Black
Box
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JALUR-JALUR MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER

1. JALUR UANG (Money Channel)
2. JALUR SUKU BUNGA ( Interest rate Channel)
3. JALUR NILAI TUKAR ( Exchange Rate Channel)
4. JALUR HARGA ASET ( Asset Price Channel)
5. JALUR KREDIT (Credit Channel)
6. JALUR EKSPEKTASI ( Expectation Channel)

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Inflation Targeting Framework
KARATERISTIK UTAMA MODEL ITF DIJADIKANNYA TARGET
INFLASI SEBAGAI TUJUAN POKOK KEB. MONETER.
SASARAN YG HARUS DICAPAI ADALAH INFLASI YG RENDAH
STABIL (MASSON ET AL,1998)
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OPEN ECONOMY
DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA PENGELUARAN U PERIODE
TERTENTU TIDK PERLU SAMA DGN HASIL PRODUKSI
BARANG JASA
PERAN EKSPOR NETO 60 THDP PDB
DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERTUTUP, SELURUH OUTPUT DIJUAL
DI PASAR DOMESTIK PENGELUARAN DIBAGI MENJADI 3
KOMPONEN C, I G. DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA
SEBAGIAN OUTPUT DI EKSPOR DI JUAL DI PASAR
DOMESTIK, PENGELUARAN DIBAGI MENJADI 4 BAGIAN C,
I, G EX
Y C I G EX
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Y C I G EX - IM
Y C I G NX
NX Y - (C I G )
Y C G I NX
Y C G TABUNGAN NASIONAL (S)
Y T C TABUNGAN PERSEORANGAN
T G TABUNGAN PEMERINTAH
S I NX
S - I NX
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PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER
r
LM1
A
r1
LM2
B
r2
IS
Y2
Y
Y1
GAMBAR PENINGKATAN MONEY SUPPLY (MS)
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INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM1
r1
r2
IS1
IS2
Y1
Y
Y2
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK MS KONSTAN
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INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM1
r1
r2
IS1
IS2
Y1
Y
Y2
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK MS KONSTAN
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INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM2
LM1
r
IS1
IS2
Y1
Y
Y2
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK r KONSTAN
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INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM1
LM2
r1
r2
IS1
IS2
Y
Y
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK Y KONSTAN
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PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI
PASAL 7 AYAT (1) UU N0.3/2004 TENTANG BI TUJUAN
BI ADALAH MENCAPAI MEMELIHARA KESTABILAN NILAI
RUPIAH.
KESTABILAN NILAI RUPIAH BISA DILIHAT DARI SISI
INTERNAL YAITU INFLASI SISI EKSTERNAL YAITU
STABLITAS NILAI TUKAR
INFLATION TARGETING
FREE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE
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EXCHANGE RATE PASS TRHOUGH PENJUMLAHAN DIRECT
INDIRECT PASS-THROUGH EFFECT
JALUR TRANSMISI INFLASI YG BERASAL DARI FAKTOR
EKSTERNAL ADA 2, YAITU Direct Pass-Through
Effect Indirect Pass-Through Effect
Direct Pass-Through Effect JALUR TRANSMIS
DAMPAK LANGSUNG NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI
MELALUI BARANG-BARANG IMPOR (IMPORTED INFLATION)
DAMPAK MELALUI IMPOR BARANG KONSUMSI DINAMAKAN
First Direct Pass-Through Effect, SEDANGKAN
DAMPAK MELALUI IMPOR BAHAN BAKU BARANG MODAL
DINAMAKAN Second Direct Pass-Through Effect
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Indirect Pass-Through Effect TRANSMISI TIDAK
LANGSUNG PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI
ADALAH MELALUI DEMAN FULL, DIMANA KENAIKAN HARGA
LUAR NEGERI ATAU KENAIKAN MATA UANG ASING
TERHADAP RUPIAH MENGAKIBATKAN PENINGKATAN
PENGHASILAN PRODUSEN EKSPORTIR DOMESTIK SEHINGGA
PERMINTAAN MEREKA AKAN BARANG JASA DI DLM
NEGERI IKUT MENINGKAT YANG PADA AKHIRNYA
MENDORONG KENAIKAN HARGA2 DI DLM NEGERI.
DI NEGARA MAJU/INDUSTRI, DAMPAK DEPRESIASI NILAI
TUKAR TERHADAP PERMINTAAN DLM NEGERI ADALAH
POSITIF, UNTUK KASUS NEGARA BERKEMBANG TERMASUK
INDONESIA HAL INI TDK TERJADI ????
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EKSPEKTASI INFLASI DAN NILAI TUKAR
EKSPEKTASI BERKAITAN DGN POLA PERILAKU PASAR DLM
MENERIMA SUATU INFORMASI. JENIS INFORMASI YG
MEREKA TERIMA AKAN BERVARIASI (ASYMETRIC
INFORMATION) POLA PERILAKU MEREKAPUN
BERBEDA-BEDA DLM MERESPON SUATU JENIS INFORMASI
YANG SAMA, BAHKAN TERKADANG AKAN TERDAPAT
PERILAKU IRASIONAL DLM MERESPON SUATU INFORMASI.
EKSPEKTASI INI TERDAPAT DI PASAR BARANG, PASAR
UANG PASAR TENAGA KERJA, DIMANA MASING-MASING
MEMPUNYAI SALING KETERKAITAN MEMPUNYAI DAMPAK
TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN HARGA-HARGA (INFLASI).
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EKSPEKTASI MASYARAKAT TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN
HARGA-HARGA (INFLASI) DIYAKINI TERBENTUK DARI
backward looking expectation forward looking
expectation
Backward Looking Expectation MENGASUMSIKAN BAHWA
INFLASI YG TERJADI PD PERIODE SEBELUMNYA AKAN
TERJADI PD SAAT INI MASA MENDATANG
Forward Looking Expectation MENGGUNAKAN INFORMASI
MENGENAI KEJADIAN YG AKAN TERJADI PD PERIODE
MENDATANG SEBAGAI VARIABEL YG BERPENGARUH PD SAAT
INI.