First National Communications GUYANA Delhi Oct. 26 2002

1
First National CommunicationsGUYANADelhi Oct.
26 2002
2
Guyanas Physical Characteristics.

• Low-lying state with a vulnerable coastal strip
• - 77 km wide in the east and 26 km wide in
  the west.
• - 90 of the population resides in the
  coastal strip, the main urban centres and
  commercial activities are to be found here.
• There is a wide range of geographic types with
  coastal, hilly sandy, highland, savannah and
  forested regions 80 pristine.
• There is no evidence of current tectonic activity
  in Guyana and indications are that the Guyana
  shield (and the coastal strip, in particular)
  will not be affected by convergence of the South
  and North American plates. But may suffer
  otherwise, subsidence etc.

3
Weather

• There is a high level of rainfall variability in
  the country and the seasons and climate are
  determined mainly by this variability.
• - First Dry Season (February to April)
• - First Wet Season (April to July)
• - Second Dry Season (July to November)
• - Second Wet Season (November to January)
• The country can be divided into climatic regions
  ranging from dry (annual rainfall less than 1788
  mm) to extremely wet (annual rainfall greater
  than 4100 mm).
• The major weather system is the Inter-tropical
  Convergence Zone and the major climate system is
  the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). There
  have been 12 known ENSO episodes resulting in
  large-scale floods and droughts.

4
Green House Gas (GHG) Inventory

• Guyana is a net sink of GHG, as the data
  collected indicates, removals (26,664 Gg)
  greatly exceed emissions (1446 Gg), that is, a
  removal balance of 25, 218 Gg in the base year
  1994.
• The sector with the highest emission factor was
  identified as the Energy sector.
• CO2 is the major GHG being emitted, accounted for
  
• 96.5 or 1446 Gg of the total emissions of CO2,
  CH4 and N2O in 1994.

5
Current Weather Impacts

• Increased intensity of rainfall, now affects the
  harvest season.
• Variable unpredictable rainfall
• Increase in high tide levels regular
  overtopping of sea defences possible saline
  intrusion.

6
Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment

• AO-GCM of the Canadian Climate Centre CGCM 1
  show for a doubling of Co2
• temperature rise by 1.2C in the period 2020 to
  2040 from present. Highest increases in excess
  of 1.5C, are expected in southern Guyana in the
  Second Dry Season (August to October).
• Rainfall decrease by an average of 10 mm per
  month but the decrease in the First Wet Season
  and Second Dry Season (May to October) will be 12
  mm per month or higher.
• Evaporation, however, appears to show
  insignificant increases (less than 3 mm per
  month). Consequent water deficit will be about 8
  mm per month on average with larger deficits in
  southern Guyana.

7
Impacts and Vulnerability Contd.

• AO-GCM of the Canadian Climate Centre CGCM 1
  show for a tripling of Co2
• A temperature rise of 4.2C on average. Southern
  Guyana may experience highest increases.
• Rainfall can decrease by an average of 21 mm per
  month with higher decreases in the First Wet
  Season and Second Dry Season. Southern Guyana
  could be influenced by the highest decreases.
  Therefore, Southern Guyana may experience large
  water deficits in the First Wet Season and Second
  Dry Season while Northern Guyana is likely to be
  affected by deficits all year round with excesses
  of 22 mm per month.
• Evaporation is likely to increase by about 3.3 mm
  per month, on average in northern Guyana in
  excess of 12 mm per month.

8
Impacts and Vulnerability Contd.

• Water Resources
• - The impact of climate change on water
  resources is forecast to be significant.
• Decreasing rainfall and increasing evaporation
  can lead to lower water levels in the rivers.
• Extreme rainstorm events can allow for flood
  conditions especially during cold phase ENSO
  events.
• Demand for water is expected to increase with
  increasing temperatures and the relative value of
  water for alternative uses would likely change as
  priorities are determined on the basis of needs.

9
Impacts and Vulnerability Contd.

• energy sector.
• -Demands for interior space cooling and possibly
  decreased hydro-generating potential supply from
  some river basins can pose problems. Hydropower
  generation will be affected.
• agriculture sector.
• -analyses based only on changes in climate
  variables, show yield losses will affect sugar
  and rice. These losses may be triggered by
  increased water demands from crop transpiration
  and greater respiration losses as a consequence
  of higher temperatures. There may be changes
  also in yield quality due to a decreased diurnal
  temperature range resulting in, eg, decreased
  sucrose content.

10
Impacts and Vulnerability Contd.

• Forestry sector
• -Impacts of CO2 -induced climate change shall be
  similar to those in agriculture.
• -Forest growth will have negative response in
  the dry season but may be exacerbated with any
  increases of CO2 for commercial timber eg.
  Greenheart.

11
Sea Level Rise

• Tide gauge data in Guyana for the period 1951 to
  1979 indicate a mean relative sea level rise of
  10.2 mm yr-1 . This is about 5 times the global
  average and suggests a mechanism other than
  normal sea level rise may be operating on
  Guyanas coast.
• Sea level rise can result in salt-water intrusion
  further up in the rivers. Ground water can also
  be vulnerable.
• The global circulation models (GCMs) indicate
  average rises of 2 to 4 mm yr-1 in the first half
  of the twenty-first century and rises of 3 to 6
  mm yr-1 in the latter half. But models operating
  on Guyanas data show a likely rise of 40 cm by
  the end of the 21st century. If melt water
  contribution from land ice is included, then rise
  may be about 60 cm.

12
Mitigation Options.

• Three sectors are important, substantial external
  support needed-
• Energy sector, Agriculture sector and the Waste
  sector.
• technology transfer to make energy use more
  efficient, changing farm practices and to reduce
  emissions from waste management.
• Renewable sources of power such as hydropower,
  solar and wind should be addressed.

13
Adaptation Options.

• Prevention/Tolerating loss-
• Protect by accommodating threats raising sea
  defences, new agri. Varieties etc.
• Spreading or sharing loss-
• Distribute the burden nationwide.
• Changing use or activity-
• New practice in land use.
• Changing location-
• Go to a friendlier location.
• Restoration-
• Provide resources to restore affected areas.

14
Difficulties encountered solutions.

• Initial releases at time of commencement were
  delayed.
• Human institutional capacity ie. loss of staff,
  equipment failure, solved through the contracting
  of suitable skills Hydromet. Staff.
• Lack of emission data, solved through the use of
  default values.

15
Future plans.

• To implement major recommendations of the
  National Communications-

16
National CommunicationsMajor recommendations.

• Accelerate energy market reform.
• Improve fuel efficiency in land, sea and air
  transport.
• Implement national efficiency codes and standards
  for buildings.
• Foster local carbon sequestration programmes.
• Develop a municipal programme for climate
  protection by good practices.
• Improve education, public awareness and training
  in CC issues.
• Extend the National Land Use Plan.
• Develop appropriate emergency response
  programmes.

17
Major Recommendations Contd.

• Introduce public awareness and education on CC.
• Establish a Climate Change Unit
• Seek financial resources and support to protect
  coastal infrastructure.
• Inventorise coastal assets determine areas of
  greater threat to SLR.
• Research plant species that will tolerate the
  adverse impacts of CC.
• Boost the development of renewable energy
• Calculate the baseline emission and local
  emission factor.
• Seek funding to support the strengthening of the
  sector agencies contributions, through improved
  data collection, local emission values etc.