Analyzing Bayesian Networks with GENIE

1
Analyzing Bayesian Networks with GENIE

• Anchors
• Renu Rao
• Kaveh Saba

2
GENIE

• Genie stands for Graphical Network Interface
• Used to graphically represent probability results
• Can predict probability of an outcome and the
  results of related variables
• Advantage Enables analysis of noisy data and
  uncertain variables

3
Download and Installation
Website http//genie.sis.pitt.edu/ Click
Download Shown in red Click Register after
entering user information Select Genie 2.0 to
initiate download
4
Specifics

• Node a factor that has a pre-determined
  probability
• Identifier A valid variable name in the
  programming language
• Node name Enter what the node actually
  represents
• Entering a probability Each node has ansuccess
  and failure probability which must add to 1 and
  they can be entered by clicking Add under node
  properties.

5
Michigans Next Football Coach

• We can use GENIE to determine the probability
  that Les Miles will be next head coach at
  Michigan
• Known probabilities
• 40 Les Miles coaches Michigan next season
• If he coaches UofM, then 20 chance that LSU won
  the BCS national title
• If LSU wins national title, then 85 chance that
  OSU sucks
• We Know that OSU SUCKS, what is probability that
  Les Miles becomes coach of Wolverines next season?

6
Set Up Model with GENIE

1. Open Program
2. Set up node for Les Miles decision

Use this icon to set up Node
7
Set Up Model with GENIE

• 3. Double-click on node
• 4. Specifier Identifier and Name as

Use this icon to set up Node
8
Set Up Model with GENIE

• 5. On definition tab, specify probabilities

9
Set Up Model with GENIE

• 6. Set up Nodes for other factors

10
Set Up Model with GENIE

1. Specify Identifier, Name, and Probabilities for
   each Node

11
Set Up Model with GENIE

• 8. Example Probability LSU wins BCS

20 Chance LSU won BCS if Les Miles UofM Coach
12
Set Up Model with GENIE

• 9. Connect the Nodes

Use this icon to connect the Nodes
13
Determine Probability

• 10. Set Evidence for Last Node

We Know that OSU SUCKS!
14
Determine Probability

• 11. Double-Click on Les Miles Node, click on
  Value tab

15
Conclusions

• 21.4 chance that Les Miles coach at UofM,
  knowing that OSU sucks
• After his press conference on Saturday,
  percentage looks closer to 0
• Bring on Jeff Tedford

16

• Thank you for your time