Foresight in the Network Era Jos

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Foresight in the Network Era José Ramos
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Network Foresight
Most recent development - enabled by large scale,
networked ICT systems Uses online, open, web
2.0 style interactive systems Engaged in
crowdsourcing and collective intelligence (wisdom
of crowds) Employs large scale scanning systems
and interactive processes for idea generation,
visioning Similarities to Integrated
Anticipatory Gov. (RAHS) - systems are robust and
can be deployed in multiple settings
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Anticipatory Democracy
How do we open up the future to wider
participation? How do we apply learning from
network foresight to develop Anticipatory
Democracy? Capacity to address wicked problem
anticipatory collective intelligence Multiple
stakeholder dynamics for collaboration How do
we create coherence among diverse viewpoints? How
can we use diversity as a resource rather than an
obstacle
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• AD and network foresight AD provides the context
  for citizen to gov transformations
• Network for provides new possibilities
• Social innovation
• Policy dev
• Linking civil society, business and gov.

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Practical Development
Examples WFSF (networked association) and WSF
(platform) early network era examples shifted
business and academic verticalism to a more
horizontal dynamic Global Business Network
Development networked think tank (shift from
institutional think tank to more fluid form)
Futures Foundation (Australia) played linking
role across practitioners and clients
Millennium Project Global distributed think
tank, 40 nodes and 5000 contributors Tech Cast
(Georgetown Uni) Network process of forecasting
(early crowd sourcing) and consulted to gov and
corp clients Shaping Tomorrow most
successful participatory (crowd sourced) platform
for trend spotting and development WikiStrat
geo-strategic online consulting
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Finpro gathers / crowdsources data from Finish
gov employees and uses this to inform gov
industry strategy and advise to Finish companies
Sigmascan 2.0 (UK) distributed knowledge
gathering system to inform / challenge gov policy
assumptions iKnow futures project (EU)
crowdsourced foresight data analysis tools
Prediction markets - Forecasting World
Events Forecasting Ace (IARPA) IfTF
Foresight Engine - Massively Multi-player Online
Foresight Game (e.g. Catalysts for Change) Open
Foresight Project Future of Facebook
(crowdfunded project), off-shelf common network
technologies, transparent and replicate-able
Evolver global progress social network,
spores (local in person meetings), blends
distributive potential via localization /
embodiment FutureScaper (Noah Raford) large
scale participatory futures systems (IFF,
Cognitive Edge, Superflux), networked scenario
building
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Key shifts
Funding from institutional to market to peer
funding dynamics, the most recent being
crowd-funding opportunities. Audience from
academic and policy circles, to corporate demand
for strategic foresight, to a global public
citizen sphere of interest. Legitimacy from
government commissions and academic institutions,
to market literature (book publishing), to peer
publics (wiki-everything) as arbiters of truth.
Instantiation from political jurisdictions,
to corporate polycentric boundaries, to highly
localized swarms.
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Shifts 2
Replication - from state / gov. sanctioned, to
market led enterprises, to peer produced
projects. Participation from government or
academic experts, to corporate stakeholders, to
the broad public. Ownership from state
controlled information, to market property, to
global knowledge commons. Transparency from
town hall politics (pony express), to national
scandals (broadcast age), to a world of wiki
leaks (digital).
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Design Space 4 modes of analysis
Instantiation (localization and
prefiguration) Replication (franchise and
rhizome) Openness (transparency and
participation) Control (ownership and the
commons).
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Instantiation
New local network potentials, local instantiation
of a process Early net era ruptured connection
with place New localization where capacity to
network is creating physically embodied
connections Prefiguration means one persons
innovation becomes anothers in another part of
the world
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Virtual and Physical
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Replication
Franchise one org controls who can use and
replicate, set template (structure and
process) Rhizome no central control,
autonomous replication (e.g. spread of social
forums around the world) Franchise Millennium
Project, IFTF foresight engine, Shaping
Tomorrow Rhizomatic replication Open Foresight
Project (designed for replication)
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Openness
Participation Transparency
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Dimensions of participation
numbers - how many people does an open
participatory web project include, a local
community linked by a web network or tens of
thousands of people? depth - through the
process, at what part stage are participants
allowed to engage in, data sourcing, analysis,
interpretation, moderation, adjudication?
diversity - how diverse are the participants,
do they come from a variety of contexts, are a
variety values represented?
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Three types of transparency
transparency/sousveillance - organizations being
open (or opened) to individuals (e.g.
Wikileaks) panopticity/surveillance -
individuals being open to organizations / publics
(e.g. Josh Harris work)13 (Timoner,
2004) authenticity - individuals being open to
individuals about themselves and each other
(e.g. Facebook )
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Transparency of the foresight platform
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Transparency of the foresight process
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Control
Ownership - debates over intellectual property
(should it belong to someone or everyone?)
Shift from material abundance and immaterial
scarcity into era of immaterial abundance and
material scarcity (Michel Bauwens analysis)
push to develop knowledge commons (e.g. Creative
Commons, Copyleft)
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Participation and Control
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Design Space and Research and development
strategic pathways including scenario development
on the futures of AD current projects and
future prospects for building global foresight
commons collective intelligence / wisdom of
crowds foresight strategies connecting
anticipatory governance with AD and the
politicization of social futures network
foresight strategies to address sustainability
and social justice Issues replication and
re-localized, mobile and embodied forms of
foresight development publicly accessible and
transparent foresight activities
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Open Foresight
An open foresight project

• Shaping Tomorrow
• Futrchat
• IFTF
• iknowfutures

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The Design Space

• 'Foresight in public
• Transparent
• Commons based output (public foresight)
• Free or low cost social media (happily coincides
  with budget)
• Replicable

Naked

• 'Stickiness factor', being the ability to stick
  in the recipients mind and be "so memorable that
  it can create change, that it can spur someone to
  action.
• The foresight experience
• Interesting, challenging, memorable

Sticky

• Future oriented
• Informed by existing methods
• Participation in more of the analysis/prospection
  work

Foresight
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Action Learning Cycles
Worked /Didnt Work
Context
Assumptions
Purpose
Operations
Strategy
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Timing
Round Start
Round Start
Opened Site May 29th
Citizen insurgencies July 25th
Futures of Work Aug 27th
Futures of Early Education Sept 27th
Future of Asia-Pacific Cities Nov 1st
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Technology
Round Start Technology /Social Media
Round Start Technology /Social Media
Opened Site May 29th Wordpress
Citizen insurgencies July 25th Wordpress Twitter Facebook
Futures of Work Aug 27th WTF Storify BranchSkype (cancelled) GoogleDoc Diigo
Futures of Early Education Sept 27th WFTSB Polldaddy Google Hangouts YouTube
Future of Asia-Pacific Cities Nov 1st WFTSBPGHYT Hoote Suite Gmail
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Back of House
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Outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Design outcomes Design outcomes Design outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Foresight Naked Sticky
Opened Site May 29th Wordpress
Citizen insurgencies July 25th Wordpress Twitter Facebook STEEP Harman Fan Scenario Scanning Little output Sort of No!
Futures of Work Aug 27th WTF Storify BranchSkype (cancelled) GoogleDoc Diigo
Futures of Early Education Sept 27th WFTSB Polldaddy Google Hangouts YouTube
Future of Asia-Pacific Cities Nov 1st WFTSBPGHYT Hoote Suite Gmail
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Outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Design outcomes Design outcomes Design outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Foresight Naked Sticky
Opened Site May 29th Wordpress
Citizen insurgencies July 25th Wordpress Twitter Facebook STEEP Harman Fan Scenario Scanning Little output Sort of No!
Futures of Work Aug 27th WTF Storify BranchSkype (cancelled) GoogleDoc Diigo Trends Timelines Incasting Scanning Sort of Yes!
Futures of Early Education Sept 27th WFTSB Polldaddy Google Hangouts YouTube
Future of Asia-Pacific Cities Nov 1st WFTSBPGHYT Hoote Suite Gmail
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Outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Design outcomes Design outcomes Design outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Foresight Naked Sticky
Opened Site May 29th Wordpress
Citizen insurgencies July 25th Wordpress Twitter Facebook STEEP Harman Fan Scenario Scanning Little output Sort of No!
Futures of Work Aug 27th WTF Storify BranchSkype (cancelled) GoogleDoc Diigo Trends Timelines Incasting Scanning Sort of Yes!
Futures of Early Education Sept 27th WFTSB Polldaddy Google Hangouts YouTube Poll (Scanning) Image analysis Scenario Some analysis and creation More Participants?
Future of Asia-Pacific Cities Nov 1st WFTSBPGHYT Hoote Suite Gmail
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Outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Design outcomes Design outcomes Design outcomes
Round Start Technology /Social Media Informing Methods Foresight Naked Sticky
Opened Site May 29th Wordpress
Citizen insurgencies July 25th Wordpress Twitter Facebook STEEP Harman Fan Scenario Scanning Little output Sort of No!
Futures of Work Aug 27th WTF Storify BranchSkype (cancelled) GoogleDoc Diigo Trends Timelines Incasting Scanning Sort of Yes!
Futures of Early Education Sept 27th WFTSB Polldaddy Google Hangouts YouTube Poll (Scanning) Image analysis Scenario Some analysis and creation More Participants?
Future of Asia-Pacific Cities Nov 1st WFTSBPGHYT Hoote Suite Gmail Delphi/Poll Image analysis Dator Scenarios Some analysis and creation Even more Participants?
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Key Lessons
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Action Learning
Worked /Didnt Work
Context
Assumptions
Operations
Strategy
Purpose
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Foresight
Worked /Didnt Work
Context
Assumptions
Scan hits
Tackle the difficult questions
Foresight methods
Workshop quality insights
More appropriate social media?
Deeper online, participatory processes?
Moving to analysis, prospection
Purpose
Strategy
Operations
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Stickiness
Worked /Didnt Work
Context
Assumptions
People who personally care about the topic
Coherent groups
Crowd or tribe sourcing (creating)?
Timeboxing
Entertainment affects engagement
Phase and platform transitions
Initiatory process, first learn this, then learn
that! ?
Purpose
Strategy
Operations
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Naked
Worked /Didnt Work
Context
Assumptions
Not light weight process!
Replication, commons based
Management strategies
Open, transparent
Personal social media praxis
Facilitator, Participant, other?
How to host conversations
Purpose
Strategy
Operations
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Whats Next

• Taking a reflection break
• Getting it funded
• Keep learning
• Opening the doors...
• The next frontier Re-embracing the Physical!

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Foresight Epidemics
The need for a foresight epidemic to help gain
movement on some of our most pressing issues.
 There should be epidemics which cover problem,
critical and epidemiological foresight work.  
(Rowe, 2003)'
Give us feedback Join us Do your own (much
better version) Do all of the above!
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theforesightepidemic.com