Title: User Requirements/Applications
1User Requirements/Applications
- World Climate Research Programme
- Antonio J. Busalacchi
- ESSIC, University of Maryland
- Chair, JSC WCRP
2- How well is the sustained global ocean observing
system providing the data that is needed for
climate research? - What else is needed?
- What is not needed?
- Any other feedback from the perspective of the
other international research programs as users of
the observing system?
3WCRP use/need of sustained global ocean
observations
- Fundamental/basic research
- Process studies
- Parameterizations (e.g. CPTs)
- Monitoring (including assessment and attribution)
- (Re)Analysis
- Initialization of prediction
4Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)
- Studies physical mechanisms of climate
variability and predictability on seasonal,
interannual, decadal and longer time scales, and
the role of the oceans in them. - CLIVAR ocean basin panels develop pilot
research-based observing systems focusing on the
role of oceans in regional climate change and on
important processes that affect the larger
climate system. - The CLIVAR basin panels have been a key partner
for the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate
(OOPC), a joint panel of the WCRP, the Global
Climate Observing System (GCOS), and the Global
Ocean Observing System (GOOS) in developing
recommendations for the global module of the GOOS
5WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel (WOAP)
- Coordinates with the WCRP/GCOS co-sponsored
panels AOPC (Atmospheric Observation Panel for
Climate) and OOPC (Ocean Observation Panel for
Climate) and the GCOS Terrestrial Observation
Panel for Climate (TOPC) to establish high
quality and long-lived observations of the
climate. - WCRP projects and contributors have led
atmospheric re-analysis for 20 years and are now
closely involved in the development of ocean
re-analysis and in future consideration of whole
Earth system re-analysis
6Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual
Prediction (WGSIP)
- Under CLIVAR, WGSIP oversees development of
improved models, assimilation systems and
observing system requirements for seasonal
prediction. - Ocean observing systems are a critical component
for initializing S-I climate forecasts.
7Climate and Cryosphere (CliC)
- Systematically addresses physical science
questions related to sea-ice, glaciers,
permafrost, snow and other components of the
frozen water realm. - These questions are integral to predicting future
sea-level rise, water resources, changes in the
ocean thermohaline circulation due to fresh water
anomalies and the changes in the carbon cycle of
the ocean
8Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)
- Studies the hydrological cycle of the atmosphere.
- In cooperation with the WCRP Working Group on
Surface Fluxes, it produces a new generation of
land- and sea-surface flux data based on
satellite observations, field studies and
modeling. - Better understanding and representation of
ocean-atmosphere fluxes in coupled models is the
key for longer-term climate prediction.
9Working Group on Surface Fluxes (WGSF)
- Was established to review the requirements of the
different WCRP programmes for surface sea fluxes
including biogeochemical fluxes, develop
communication and co-ordination between various
related research initiatives, encourage research
and facilitate operational activities on surface
fluxes.
10Surface OceanLower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS)
- A joint project of WCRP with the International
GeosphereBiosphere Programme (IGBP), the
Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research, and the
Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global
Pollution. - It is an innovative study aiming at quantitative
understanding of the key biogeochemical-physical
interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and
atmosphere. - SOLAS, as well as CLIVAR and CliC, contributes to
the studies of the ocean carbon cycle,
cooperating with the International Ocean Carbon
Coordination Project (IOCCP).
11Working Group on Coupled Modelling
- Review and foster the development of coupled
climate models, including organisation of model
intercomparisons and utilisation of available
instrumental records and paleo-climatic data for
model validation and diagnosis of shortcomings - Promote co-ordinated experimentation with coupled
models aiming to understand natural climate
variability on decadal to centennial time scales
and its predictability, and to predict the
response of the climate system to changes in
natural and anthropogenic forcing - Promote the development of appropriate data
assimilation procedures for coupled models and
consider questions related to initialisation - Undertake other modelling activities in support
of CLIVAR and the WCRP - Liaise as appropriate with IPCC and the Global
Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling (GAIM)
element of IGBP
12Monsoon Research and Seasonal Prediction
- One third of the worlds population lives under
the direct influence of monsoons, which occur due
to the seasonal coupling of the atmosphere and
ocean. - Monsoon anomalies can mean deadly floods or
insufficient rain for sustaining crops. - WCRP monsoon initiatives are under way on all
continents. - Examples are the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel,
the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis
(AMMA), and several South and North American
projects.
13Model Appraisal and Development
- The Working Group on Ocean Model Development
addresses the specific needs and concerns of the
ocean component of climate change projections. - More than 40 intercomparison projects have been
undertaken by WCRP since its inception to develop
weather prediction, ocean and climate models from
their infancy
14Global Observations
- WCRP assists the GCOS in formulating requirements
for climate observations. - It cosponsors panels reviewing ocean (OOPC) and
atmospheric observations for climate. - By developing prototypes of observing techniques,
data assimilation methods and deploying pilot
observing systems, WCRP projects were
instrumental in setting the stage for such
successful activities as GOOS, Argo, and Global
Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE).
15International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY)
- Input from the WCRP helped to shape the science
programme of IPY, and climate research dominates
its agenda. - WCRP was instrumental in setting up the
unprecedented two-year snapshot of the polar
oceans. - For the first time, many satellites will allow
coordinated observations of the poles at multiple
wavelengths, improving our understanding of the
physics of the polar oceans.
16Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP)
- Formed by WCRP, IGBP, Diversitas and the
International Human Dimensions Programme on
Global Environmental Change (IHDP), studies the
complex Earth system. - Oceanographic projects of the IGBP include
Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone
(LOICZ, cosponsored by IHDP), SOLAS, and
Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem
Research (IMBER). - The two latter projects are also cosponsored by
the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research
(SCOR). - The joint ESSP Global Carbon Project (GCP), in
its work on the global carbon cycle, cooperates
with the IOCCP
17Climate Impacts Dependent on Ocean Observations
18Sea-level Rise
- In June 2006, the WCRP organized a major
international workshop, hosted by the IOC at
UNESCO, on sea-level rise and variability. - It achieved consensus on the estimates of the
current pace of sea-level rise and the
requirements for observing systems and modeling
to better constrain the estimates and
predictions. - More research is needed to better understand the
heat uptake and resulting expansion of the
oceans, the stability of ice sheets, the amount
of water stored on land, and to improve
altimetric measurements of the ocean.
19Role of the ocean in seasonal and decadal
forecasting and prediction of droughts and floods
- Long-term weather anomalies, heat waves and
precipitation patterns are strongly influenced by
the ocean. - WCRP-led research on seasonal and decadal
forecasting has already demonstrated its value
for assessing water abundances and shortages, and
hence the danger of droughts and floods, of
outbreaks of tropical diseases, of forest fires
and of many other hazards. - Developing countries are most vulnerable to these
seasonal climatic anomalies, and therefore stand
to gain the most from improved predictions. For
that reason, it is crucial to take full advantage
of the potential predictability associated with
the ocean in a range of seasonal and decadal
prediction applications.
20Abrupt climate change
- In many past climate records, there are clear
signs of abrupt changes in the regional or global
climate, warming or cooling of more than 5C in
only a few decades. - Some evidence suggests that these events may have
been caused by large changes in the oceanic
circulation. There may be thresholds or tipping
points in the oceanic circulation, so that
changes to the climate may not be reversible. - While the IPCC expects that the North Atlantic
thermohaline circulation will slow and not change
abruptly in the coming century, uncertainties
remain, and the effects could be potentially
catastrophic. - Further investment in research on non-linear
climate feedbacks and improvement of global
ocean, coupled climate and Earth System models is
necessary.
21Tropical cyclones, storms, surges and other
climate-related hazards
- Floods and tropical cyclones are some of the
deadliest and costliest natural hazards. - The Bhola cyclone in 1970 killed 500,000 people
in Bangladesh, and cyclone Katrina flooded the
city of New Orleans in 2005. - Tropical storms draw their energy from the heat
of the ocean surface, so that ocean models and
sea-surface flux data are required for predicting
both the strength and path of an individual
storm, and also the long-term changes in storm
number, intensity and location.
22How well is the sustained global ocean observing
system providing the data that is needed for
climate research?
- Truly great strides have been made in the past
10-15 years e.g., TAO, Argo, satellite altimetry
23What else is needed?
- Greater synergy between in situ and space-based
ocean observations - Greater dialogue (i.e., requirements) between
climate prediction and ocean observing components - Systems approach to obs/fields
- A routine ocean state estimation activity
inclusive of observational error estimates - Sustained data/information delivery plan for
access and archival of ocean research
observations - Infrastructure to ensure climate quality,
continuity, and reprocessing capabilities
24What is not needed?
- Organizational boundaries that serve as
impediments to greater synthesis, synergy, and
requirements definition for ocean observations
25Any other feedback from the perspective of the
other international research programs as users of
the observing system?
- Systems outside the WCRPs scope that benefit
from improved climate predictions - Fisheries and Marine Resources
- Coastal Area Management
- Ocean ecosystems change
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