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User Requirements/Applications

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Title: User Requirements/Applications


1
User Requirements/Applications
  • World Climate Research Programme
  • Antonio J. Busalacchi
  • ESSIC, University of Maryland
  • Chair, JSC WCRP

2
  • How well is the sustained global ocean observing
    system providing the data that is needed for
    climate research?
  • What else is needed?
  • What is not needed?
  • Any other feedback from the perspective of the
    other international research programs as users of
    the observing system?

3
WCRP use/need of sustained global ocean
observations
  • Fundamental/basic research
  • Process studies
  • Parameterizations (e.g. CPTs)
  • Monitoring (including assessment and attribution)
  • (Re)Analysis
  • Initialization of prediction

4
Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)
  • Studies physical mechanisms of climate
    variability and predictability on seasonal,
    interannual, decadal and longer time scales, and
    the role of the oceans in them.
  • CLIVAR ocean basin panels develop pilot
    research-based observing systems focusing on the
    role of oceans in regional climate change and on
    important processes that affect the larger
    climate system.
  • The CLIVAR basin panels have been a key partner
    for the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate
    (OOPC), a joint panel of the WCRP, the Global
    Climate Observing System (GCOS), and the Global
    Ocean Observing System (GOOS) in developing
    recommendations for the global module of the GOOS

5
WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel (WOAP)
  • Coordinates with the WCRP/GCOS co-sponsored
    panels AOPC (Atmospheric Observation Panel for
    Climate) and OOPC (Ocean Observation Panel for
    Climate) and the GCOS Terrestrial Observation
    Panel for Climate (TOPC) to establish high
    quality and long-lived observations of the
    climate.
  • WCRP projects and contributors have led
    atmospheric re-analysis for 20 years and are now
    closely involved in the development of ocean
    re-analysis and in future consideration of whole
    Earth system re-analysis

6
Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual
Prediction (WGSIP)
  • Under CLIVAR, WGSIP oversees development of
    improved models, assimilation systems and
    observing system requirements for seasonal
    prediction.
  • Ocean observing systems are a critical component
    for initializing S-I climate forecasts.

7
Climate and Cryosphere (CliC)
  • Systematically addresses physical science
    questions related to sea-ice, glaciers,
    permafrost, snow and other components of the
    frozen water realm.
  • These questions are integral to predicting future
    sea-level rise, water resources, changes in the
    ocean thermohaline circulation due to fresh water
    anomalies and the changes in the carbon cycle of
    the ocean

8
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)
  • Studies the hydrological cycle of the atmosphere.
  • In cooperation with the WCRP Working Group on
    Surface Fluxes, it produces a new generation of
    land- and sea-surface flux data based on
    satellite observations, field studies and
    modeling.
  • Better understanding and representation of
    ocean-atmosphere fluxes in coupled models is the
    key for longer-term climate prediction.

9
Working Group on Surface Fluxes (WGSF)
  • Was established to review the requirements of the
    different WCRP programmes for surface sea fluxes
    including biogeochemical fluxes, develop
    communication and co-ordination between various
    related research initiatives, encourage research
    and facilitate operational activities on surface
    fluxes.

10
Surface OceanLower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS)
  • A joint project of WCRP with the International
    GeosphereBiosphere Programme (IGBP), the
    Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research, and the
    Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global
    Pollution.
  • It is an innovative study aiming at quantitative
    understanding of the key biogeochemical-physical
    interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and
    atmosphere.
  • SOLAS, as well as CLIVAR and CliC, contributes to
    the studies of the ocean carbon cycle,
    cooperating with the International Ocean Carbon
    Coordination Project (IOCCP).

11
Working Group on Coupled Modelling
  • Review and foster the development of coupled
    climate models, including organisation of model
    intercomparisons and utilisation of available
    instrumental records and paleo-climatic data for
    model validation and diagnosis of shortcomings
  • Promote co-ordinated experimentation with coupled
    models aiming to understand natural climate
    variability on decadal to centennial time scales
    and its predictability, and to predict the
    response of the climate system to changes in
    natural and anthropogenic forcing
  • Promote the development of appropriate data
    assimilation procedures for coupled models and
    consider questions related to initialisation
  • Undertake other modelling activities in support
    of CLIVAR and the WCRP
  • Liaise as appropriate with IPCC and the Global
    Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling (GAIM)
    element of IGBP

12
Monsoon Research and Seasonal Prediction
  • One third of the worlds population lives under
    the direct influence of monsoons, which occur due
    to the seasonal coupling of the atmosphere and
    ocean.
  • Monsoon anomalies can mean deadly floods or
    insufficient rain for sustaining crops.
  • WCRP monsoon initiatives are under way on all
    continents.
  • Examples are the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel,
    the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis
    (AMMA), and several South and North American
    projects.

13
Model Appraisal and Development
  • The Working Group on Ocean Model Development
    addresses the specific needs and concerns of the
    ocean component of climate change projections.
  • More than 40 intercomparison projects have been
    undertaken by WCRP since its inception to develop
    weather prediction, ocean and climate models from
    their infancy

14
Global Observations
  • WCRP assists the GCOS in formulating requirements
    for climate observations.
  • It cosponsors panels reviewing ocean (OOPC) and
    atmospheric observations for climate.
  • By developing prototypes of observing techniques,
    data assimilation methods and deploying pilot
    observing systems, WCRP projects were
    instrumental in setting the stage for such
    successful activities as GOOS, Argo, and Global
    Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE).

15
International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY)
  • Input from the WCRP helped to shape the science
    programme of IPY, and climate research dominates
    its agenda.
  • WCRP was instrumental in setting up the
    unprecedented two-year snapshot of the polar
    oceans.
  • For the first time, many satellites will allow
    coordinated observations of the poles at multiple
    wavelengths, improving our understanding of the
    physics of the polar oceans.

16
Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP)
  • Formed by WCRP, IGBP, Diversitas and the
    International Human Dimensions Programme on
    Global Environmental Change (IHDP), studies the
    complex Earth system.
  • Oceanographic projects of the IGBP include
    Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone
    (LOICZ, cosponsored by IHDP), SOLAS, and
    Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem
    Research (IMBER).
  • The two latter projects are also cosponsored by
    the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research
    (SCOR).
  • The joint ESSP Global Carbon Project (GCP), in
    its work on the global carbon cycle, cooperates
    with the IOCCP

17
Climate Impacts Dependent on Ocean Observations
18
Sea-level Rise
  • In June 2006, the WCRP organized a major
    international workshop, hosted by the IOC at
    UNESCO, on sea-level rise and variability.
  • It achieved consensus on the estimates of the
    current pace of sea-level rise and the
    requirements for observing systems and modeling
    to better constrain the estimates and
    predictions.
  • More research is needed to better understand the
    heat uptake and resulting expansion of the
    oceans, the stability of ice sheets, the amount
    of water stored on land, and to improve
    altimetric measurements of the ocean.

19
Role of the ocean in seasonal and decadal
forecasting and prediction of droughts and floods
  • Long-term weather anomalies, heat waves and
    precipitation patterns are strongly influenced by
    the ocean.
  • WCRP-led research on seasonal and decadal
    forecasting has already demonstrated its value
    for assessing water abundances and shortages, and
    hence the danger of droughts and floods, of
    outbreaks of tropical diseases, of forest fires
    and of many other hazards.
  • Developing countries are most vulnerable to these
    seasonal climatic anomalies, and therefore stand
    to gain the most from improved predictions. For
    that reason, it is crucial to take full advantage
    of the potential predictability associated with
    the ocean in a range of seasonal and decadal
    prediction applications.

20
Abrupt climate change
  • In many past climate records, there are clear
    signs of abrupt changes in the regional or global
    climate, warming or cooling of more than 5C in
    only a few decades.
  • Some evidence suggests that these events may have
    been caused by large changes in the oceanic
    circulation. There may be thresholds or tipping
    points in the oceanic circulation, so that
    changes to the climate may not be reversible.
  • While the IPCC expects that the North Atlantic
    thermohaline circulation will slow and not change
    abruptly in the coming century, uncertainties
    remain, and the effects could be potentially
    catastrophic.
  • Further investment in research on non-linear
    climate feedbacks and improvement of global
    ocean, coupled climate and Earth System models is
    necessary.

21
Tropical cyclones, storms, surges and other
climate-related hazards
  • Floods and tropical cyclones are some of the
    deadliest and costliest natural hazards.
  • The Bhola cyclone in 1970 killed 500,000 people
    in Bangladesh, and cyclone Katrina flooded the
    city of New Orleans in 2005.
  • Tropical storms draw their energy from the heat
    of the ocean surface, so that ocean models and
    sea-surface flux data are required for predicting
    both the strength and path of an individual
    storm, and also the long-term changes in storm
    number, intensity and location.

22
How well is the sustained global ocean observing
system providing the data that is needed for
climate research?
  • Truly great strides have been made in the past
    10-15 years e.g., TAO, Argo, satellite altimetry

23
What else is needed?
  • Greater synergy between in situ and space-based
    ocean observations
  • Greater dialogue (i.e., requirements) between
    climate prediction and ocean observing components
  • Systems approach to obs/fields
  • A routine ocean state estimation activity
    inclusive of observational error estimates
  • Sustained data/information delivery plan for
    access and archival of ocean research
    observations
  • Infrastructure to ensure climate quality,
    continuity, and reprocessing capabilities

24
What is not needed?
  • Organizational boundaries that serve as
    impediments to greater synthesis, synergy, and
    requirements definition for ocean observations

25
Any other feedback from the perspective of the
other international research programs as users of
the observing system?
  • Systems outside the WCRPs scope that benefit
    from improved climate predictions
  • Fisheries and Marine Resources
  • Coastal Area Management
  • Ocean ecosystems change

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