Challenges for Russia

1
Challenges for Russias Democracy

• Robert Orttung
• Resource Security Institute

2
Three Goals

• Make sense of recent developments in Russian
  politics
• Key trends in Russian political development
• Federal elections
• Governors elections
• Local elections
• Recent reform proposals
• Make sense of recent efforts to make sense of
  developments in Russian politics
• Future scenarios

3
Freedom House NIT Russia Scores
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Electoral Process 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.50 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 6.75
Civil Society 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75
Media 4.75 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25 6.25
Governance 4.50 5.00 5.25 5.00 5.25 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
National Governance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.50
Local Governance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75
Judicial 4.25 4.50 4.75 4.50 4.75 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50
Corruption 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25
Democracy Score 4.58 4.88 5.00 4.96 5.25 5.61 5.75 5.86 5.96 6.11
4
Changes in Electoral Law

• Constant fine tuning to increase control
• Presidential, parliamentary terms extended
• Parliamentary elections based on party lists
• Threshold moved to 7 from 5
• Only registered parties (now down to 7)

5
Changes in Electoral Law (cont.)

• Against all choice eliminated
• Minimum turnout also eliminated
• Duma parties dont have to collect signatures
• Elimination of option to put up cash to get on
  ballot
• Parties get money per vote
• Parties winning less than 3 have to reimburse
  free publicity

6
Elected Governors, 1996-2004

• Powerful regional leaders
• Luzhkov, Shaimiev, Rakhimov, Nazdratenko, Lebed
• Reformers
• Nemtsov, Prusak, Titov
• Communists
• Businessmen
• Trutnev, Khloponin, Ilyumzhinov

7
Elected Governors

• Rogues gallery of leaders
• No shining examples of democracy
• Provided a balance to federal government
• Gave locals some ways to hold leaders accountable
• Started to build a culture of democracy

8
Kremlin and Governors, 2004 -

• After Beslan, president appoints governors
• No regional legislature challenges Putin or
  Medvedev
• At first, mainly kept on old governors
• Main objective was stability
• Fired only those who had lost control
• Now making more appointments of loyalists
• No apparent logic behind appointments some
  removed for scandal, others not (Darkin, Mari-El)
• Removing Yeltsin-era heavyweights (Rossel,
  Shaimiev)

9
Appointed Governors

• Governors are now focused on pleasing Moscow
  rather than locals
• Regions are more manageable from Moscow
• Less dependent on business groups
• Elected leaders would be more flexible in
  reacting to regional problems serve local
  interests
• No good system of recruiting leaders in Russia
• United Russia plays nominal role
• 57 percent of Russian voters support the return
  to gubernatorial elections, 20 percent prefer the
  current practice and 23 percent had no opinion
  (Levada Center)

10
Kaliningrad Demonstration
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Demonstration

• Possible sign of trouble for regime?
• Moscow now responsible for everything that
  happens in the country
• Logical thing to do is remove governor
• Putin does not like to act under clear public
  pressure
• Strongly supports Boos
• Could open the way for more protests

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October 2009 Elections

• Of the 42,361 regional and local offices filled
  that day, United Russia won 29,687 or 70
• Opposition walkout from Duma
• Denied registration 0.5 United Russia 54
  Patriots of Russia 26 Right Cause 33 Yabloko
  (Central Electoral Commission)
• Medvedev Outcome reflects the real balance of
  forces in the country

13
March 2010 Elections

• United Russia won 68 of the seats up for
  election
• However, won less than 50 of the seats in 4 of 8
  regional legislatures
• Denied registration United Russia 0.17
  Yabloko 15.3
• Fake pluralism rather than shameless fix
  Brian Whitmore

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Reform Proposals

• Boos called for reinstating against all so
  authorities can judge their popularity retracted
• Yurgens, Gontmaker report reinstate many of the
  things taken away (terms, Duma districts, 5
  barrier, governors elections)
• Meeting of Security Council on political reform
• Putin told the meeting there is no need for
  reform
• Medvedev praises October local elections
• Only reform is to give parties winning 5-7
  representation in legislatures

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Explanation I Hybrid Regime

• Hybrid Regime Overmanaged Democracy (Petrov,
  Lipman, Hale)
• Putin wins votes because voters agree with him
  leadership qualities projects competence.
  Putin/Medvedev must appeal to the electorate to
  beat opposition (Colton/Hale)

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Explanation II Non-democratic Consolidation

• Vote only confirms decisions made elsewhere, no
  opposition (Gelman)

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Explanation III Authoritarian State Building

• Building and continuing Russias authoritarian
  regime means applying means of repression,
  ensuring elite unity, and maintaining a ruling
  party that shapes the political environment (Way)

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Explanation IV Virtual Politics

• With passive electorate, elite controls
  information flows in absence of international
  intervention (Andrew Wilson).

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Explanations V Why Vote?

• Ritual support for myth of stability people
  realize elections are falsified, but want to go
  on believing
• People turn up and cast their votes because
  campaigns are always accompanied by certain
  hand-out of gifts and promises. -- Aleksei
  Grazhdankin of the Levada-Center

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Explanation VI - Fraud

• Republics

• Oblasts

• 10 million suspect votes in the 2004 and 2007
  elections 2008 was not even an election
  (Myagkov/Ordeshook/Shakin)
• Conditions placed on OSCE prevent monitoring

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Conclusions

• Authoritarian regime
• No opposition, though people can register
  discontent
• Irkutsk mayor
• PR is increasingly central feature of regime
• President
• Parliament
• Policies (corruption, modernization)
• Information processing

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Future Challenges

• Unstable point for the elite cant address the
  problems people are complaining about yet afraid
  to introduce substantive political reforms
• Possible causes for change
• Duma elections in 2011/Presidential elections in
  2012
• Economic problems
• Energy prices
• Incompetent response to natural disaster
• North Caucasus
• Decline in police discipline
• Fewer feedback links greater fragility