Vietnam

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Vietnam

• Myths, Realities, and the Use of a Historical
  Analogy

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I. Myths of Vietnam

• Overall story The military knew how to win the
  war, but antiwar protests and inaccurate news
  reports (such as the portrayal of Tet as a
  defeat) biased the public against continuing the
  fight. In the end, wealthy young college
  students ended up undermining the war effort and
  even attacked the troops.
• Problem Mixes untestable counterfactual
  propositions (what would have happened if only)
  with false but believable statements (myths).
• Solution Identify what can be tested and look
  at the data.

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A. The Myths of Tet

• 1. The weak version Tet proved the US was losing
  the war
• Reality Tet was a crushing victory for the
  US/ARVN. The civil war/insurgency virtually
  ended within a year of Tet (replaced by
  interstate war). NLF was 75 Southern before
  Tet, only 20 Southern a year later.
• 2. The stronger version Tet was a victory, but
  the medias portrayal of it turned Americans
  against the war.

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a. The stronger version Data
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a. The stronger version Data
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b. The Stronger Version Details

• Reality American support was declining before
  Tet and continued to decline after Tet.
  Cumulative battle-deaths match levels of support
  well 15 drop in support each time casualties
  increased by factor of 10 (100, 1000, 10,000).
  This explains 90 of variance in opinion!
• Interesting The military commander
  (Westmoreland) treated Tet as a defeat,
  requesting 206,000 more soldiers after the battle
  was over

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Battle-Deaths and Support for Wars
Afghanistan (Not a Mistake)
Iraq
Afghanistan (Support War)
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B. The Myth of the Silent Majority

• Claim Wealthy young college students were likely
  to oppose the war, while blue-collar older
  workers were likely to support the war.
• Actually 3 claims
• Wealth Opposition
• Youth Opposition
• Education Opposition

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1. Test Income and War Support

• Results vary from year to year. General trend
  early opposition by poor, later opposition by
  rich, less opposition by middle class

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2. Test Education and War Support
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3. Test Age and War Support
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C. The Myths of Protest

• 1. Claim The peace movement turned people
  against the war
• Reality Major demonstrations (10,000 or more
  people)
• Did not affect support for the war
• Did not affect Presidential popularity
• Slightly increased support for Presidents
  handling of war
• Reality Demonstrators were unpopular (average
  rating of 28 on a 100-point scale in 1968)
• Interesting Little correlation between attitude
  to protesters and support for war

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2. Claim Protesters targeted military personnel

• Example Protesters spitting on returning
  soldiers (unconfirmed urban legend)
• Partly True Protesters calling troops names
• Out of 380 articles in major papers (1965-71)
  that discussed both protesters and troops
• No known cases of returning troops being targeted
• 6 of events had anti-troop element, usually
  confrontation between demonstrators and troops
  called out to face them chants of fascists etc
  (soldiers assigned to police duties)
• Interesting Only small (13) difference in
  approval of student demonstrators between Vietnam
  vets and nonveterans in 1975

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D. The Partisan Myth

• Claim Democrats opposed the war, Republicans
  supported it

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Test Party and War Support
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Another Test Campaign Ads
Raymond Massey -- 1964 Vietnam 1968 Young
Vets -- 1972
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D. The Partisan Myth

• Claim Democrats opposed the war, Republicans
  supported it
• Reality Each party was more likely to oppose the
  war when the other party was in power

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E. The TV Myth

• Claim TV coverage of the gritty reality of war
  or misrepresentation of reality caused viewers
  to turn against the war.

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1. Test Gritty reality?

• 1965-1970 2300 evening news reports on Vietnam
• Only 76 showed both fighting and casualties
  within view
• Gear prevented most close-up shots (nearly
  impossible to film while prone) or instantaneous
  reporting in the field (Vietnam was a videotape
  war).
• All three networks agreed not to air recognizable
  images of US dead (feet only, not faces)

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2. Test A New Kind of War?

• Compare Korea and Vietnam support against
  casualties

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Battle-Deaths and Support for Wars
Afghanistan (Not a Mistake)
Iraq
Afghanistan (Support War)
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3. Test Media Bias and Opinion Journalism

• Before Tet Speakers in favor of war quoted 26.3
  of the time, speakers against war quoted only
  4.5 of the time
• After Tet 28.4 supporters, 26.1 opponents
• Opponents 49 are government officials, 16 are
  reporters expressing opinions, 35 are antiwar
  activists or soldiers
• What happened? Bias towards official sources ?
  change in reporting when officials turned against
  the war
• Media opposition actually lagged public
  opposition! Opponents consistently
  underrepresented compared to share of US
  population

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F. Half-Myths Partially True Statements Accepted
as Wholly True

• 1. Claim African-American soldiers bore a
  disproportionate share of combat deaths
• Reality Statement was correct when made in 1966
  (24 of Army combat deaths in 1965!)
• Reality Statement was incorrect at end of war
  (12 of total combat deaths in Vietnam)

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2. Claim Politicians micromanaged and limited
support for military

• Micromanagement? Civilians micromanaged air
  campaign for political purposes (bargaining, fear
  of escalation)
• Military resources? Westmoreland got everything
  he asked for from 1965 to 1968.
• Military Goals? Survey of 110 generals who
  served found 70 never knew what the US objective
  was.
• Military attitudes to withdrawal? The military
  liked Vietnamization.
• 1974 survey of all generals who served 58
  wholly agreed with it, 36 conditionally agreed,
  only 6 disagreed.
• The next year, the North defeated the South in a
  matter of weeks.
• Implication Military officers misjudged the
  political basis of defense.

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II. Unanswered Questions

• Could we have won? Some answers
• No The NLF and NVA were prepared to accept
  higher casualties than the US. Escalation
  (conventional or nuclear) would have brought in
  China or the USSR on the side of the NLF/NVA or
  caused a war in Europe.
• Yes Escalation would have worked
• Conventional Invade South Vietnams neighbors
• Nuclear weapons
• Yes Doing the same thing earlier would preserve
  support
• Maximum force instead of incrementalism
• Strategic hamlets and local defense instead of
  Search Destroy
• Yes Provide aid and air support in 1974-1975.

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B. Why did North Vietnam keep fighting?
Especially since

• Losing meant only the status quo, not
  extinction or even loss of territory or political
  power
• Morale was critical, especially during insurgency
  phase
• Prior willingness to compromise (Geneva 1954)
• Korean example suggested compromise
• US was really good at killing Vietnamese
• 730,000 Communist battle-deaths
• Hundreds of thousands of civilians killed
• North Vietnam Communist-controlled areas of
  South only 20 million people max!
• 3.6 battle-deaths is almost unprecedented (a few
  examples in the World Wars even Japan lost
  fewer in WW II)

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III. Comparison to Iraq

• How appropriate is the Vietnam analogy?
• What are the strengths and weaknesses of
  single-case historical comparisons?

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A. Vietnam vs Iraq Beginning
Vietnam Iraq
Trigger South Vietnam rebellion US attack on Iraq
Initial Combat Guerilla Conventional
US commitment Small, increased Large
Initial target Rebel force State government
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B. Vietnam vs Iraq Military Statistics
Vietnam, 1965 to late 1968 (4 years) Iraq, Fall 2003 to Fall 2007 (4 years)
Insurgents 250,000 including NVA regulars Perhaps 25,000
US/Allied Troops 600,000 170,000 ( contractors)
Govt Troops 1 million 230,000 including police
Troop RATIO 61 161
Insurgent deaths Perhaps 200,000 15,000 - 55,000 (little data)
US/Allied deaths 20,000 3500
Govt deaths 60,000 7500 (2004 to 2007)
Kill RATIO 12.5 11.4 to 15
Outside support for insurgents Regular military, arms, bases, superpower threats Volunteers
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Monthly US KIA Vietnam vs Iraq
Iraq to June 2008
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C. Goals

• What was the US goal in Vietnam? How would we
  know when it was achieved?
• What is the US goal in Iraq? How will we know
  when it is achieved?

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D. What does Vietnam prove about Iraq?

• Is Vietnam the right analogy, or would Malaya
  (successful counterinsurgency) or World War II
  (defeating dictators and establishing democracy)
  be better?
• Is there a system for picking the right
  historical analogy?

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What do Americans think? (2005)
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D. What does Vietnam prove about Iraq?

• Is Vietnam the right analogy, or would Malaya
  (successful counterinsurgency) or World War II
  (defeating dictators and establishing democracy)
  be better?
• Is there a system for picking the right
  historical analogy?
• What kind of data about the past do we need to
  make foreign policy decisions in an uncertain
  present?

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E. Iraq Determinants of Support

• 1. Casualties Steeper decline than Vietnam
• Prewar poll (Oct 2002)
• 51 support war given 100 US dead
• 46 support war given 1000 US dead
• 33 support war given 5000 US dead
• Intrawar polls
• 1 approval loss/100 US deaths (to 2004)
• 1500 dead (early 2005) same support as Vietnam
  at time of Tet (20,000 dead)

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2. Public Support Vietnam vs. Iraq
Average effect of being On Vietnam Support On Iraq Support
Younger Increase Increase
More educated Increase Mixed
Wealthier Increase Increase
Male Increase Increase
White Increase Increase


Average initial relationship was reverse
Increase up to some college, decrease
thereafter
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2. Public Support Vietnam vs. Iraq
Average effect of being On Vietnam Support On Iraq Support
Younger Increase Increase
More educated Increase Mixed
Wealthier Increase Increase
Male Increase Increase
White Increase Increase
Republican Decrease Increase
Democrat Increase Decrease
Average initial relationship was reverse
Increase up to some college, decrease
thereafter Averages relationship reversed
(but gap smaller) after 1969
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3. What does the public know?

• a. Casualties mostly informed
• Question Since the start of military action in
  Iraq, about how many US soldiers have been
  killed? To the best of your knowledge, have there
  been around 500, around 1500, around 2500, or
  around 3500 military deaths in Iraq?
• Source Pew Research Center
• Field Date - Apr 7-16, 2006

500 4
1500 16
2500 (correct) 53
3500 19
Other / Refuse / Dont Know 8
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Recent Decline in Knowledge
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b. Details Uninformed

• Terrorism -- How many 9/11 hijackers were Iraqis
  none, some, or most? (2002)
• 44 said some or most (In 2006 24)
• 17 said none (CORRECT)
• Geography 2/3 of Americans age 18-24 still
  cant find Iraq on a map (Feb 2006)
• WMD Post-major ops poll (June 2003)
• 33 thought US forces had found WMD (In 2006 26
  said Saddam had them when the US invaded)
• 22 thought Iraq had used WMD against US troops!