Title: Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination
1Section 4.2
- Linear Regression and the Coefficient of
Determination
2The Least Squares Line
- When there appears to be a linear relationship
between x and y we attempt to fit a line to
the scatter diagram.
Least Squares Criterion
The sum of the squares of the vertical distances
from the points to the line is made as small as
possible.
3Least Squares Criterion
- d represents the difference between the y
coordinate of the data point and the
corresponding y coordinate on the line. - Thus if the data point lies above the line, d is
positive, but if the data point lies below the
line, d is negative. - As a result, the sum of the d values can be small
even if the points are widely spread in the
scatter diagram. - However, the squares cannot be negative.
- By minimizing the sum of the squares, we are, in
effect, not allowing positive and negative d
values to cancel out one another in the sum. - It is this way that we can meet the least-squares
critirion of minimizing the sum of the squares of
the vertical distances between the points and the
line over all points in the scatter diagram.
4Equation of the Least Squares Line
a the y-intercept
b the slope
5Finding the Equation of the Least Squares Line
- Obtain a random sample of n data pairs (x, y).
- 1. Using the data pairs, compute Sx, Sy, Sx2,
Sy2, and Sxy. - Compute the sample means
6Finding the Slope
- 2. Use the following formula
- Finding the y-intercept
7ExampleFind the Least Squares Line
8Example cont.Finding the Slope
9Example cont.Finding the y-intercept
The equation of the least squares line is
y a bx y 2.77 1.70x
10Graph the least-Squares Line
- We can use the slope-intercept method of algebra,
but may not always be convenient if the intercept
is not within the range of the sample data
values. - It is better to select two x values in the range
of the x data values and then use the
least-squares line to compute two corresponding y
values. - The point is always on the
least-squares line. - To find another point, give x a value and find
the y. - In our example (8.3 , 16.9)
Try x 5. Compute y y 2.8 1.7(5) 11.3
11Graphing the least squares line
- Using two values in the range of x, compute two
corresponding y values. - Plot these points.
- Join the points with a straight line.
12Sketching the Line
13Meaning of Slope
y a bx
- In the equation , the
slope b tell us how many units y changes for each
unit change in x. - In our example regarding the miles traveled and
the time in minutes - y 2.77 1.70x
- The slope 1.70 tell us that a change in one mile
takes in average 1.70 minutes. - The slope of the least-squares line tells how
many units the response variable is expected to
change for each unit change in the explanatory
variable. The number of units change in the
response variable for each unit change in the
explanatory variable is called marginal change of
the response variable.
14Using the Equation of the Least Squares Line to
Make Predictions
- Choose a value for x (within the range of x
values). - Substitute the selected x in the least squares
equation. - Determine corresponding value of y.
15Predict the time to make a trip of 14 miles
- Equation of least squares line
- y 2.8 1.7x
- Substitute x 14
- y 2.8 1.7 (14)
- y 26.6
- According to the least squares equation, a trip
of 14 miles would take 26.6 minutes.
16Interpolation
- using the least squares line to predict y values
for x values that are between observed x values
in the data set.
Extrapolation
using the least squares line to predict y values
for x values that are beyond observed x values in
the data set.
17Extreme Data Points
- The least squares line can be greatly affected by
extreme or influential data points.
18The least squares line
- Is developed from sample data pairs (x, y).
- May not reflect the relationship between x and y
for values of x outside the data range. - For example, there is a fairly high correlation
between height and age for boys ages 1 year to 10
years. In general the older the boy, the taller
the boy. A least-squares line based on such date
give good predictions of height for ages 1 to 10. - However, it would be fairly meaningless to use
the same linear regression line to predict the
height of 20 to 50 years old.
19The least squares line
- Each different sample data will produce a
slightly different equation for the least-squares
line. - The least-squares line developed with x as the
explanatory variable and y as the response
variable can be used only to predict y values
from specified x values.
20A statistic related to r
- If the sample correlation coefficient is r
- The coefficient of determination r2
How good is the least squares line as an
instrument of regression? The answer is the
coefficient of determination
Coefficient of Determination
Is a measure of the proportion of the variation
in y that is explained by the regression line
using x as the predicting variable
21Interpretation of r2
- If r 0.9753643, then what percent of the
variation in minutes (y) is explained by the
linear relationship with x, miles traveled? - What percent is unexplained?
- If r 0.9753643, then r2 .9513355
- Approximately 95 percent of the variation in
minutes (y) is explained by the linear
relationship with x, miles traveled. - is unexplained (due to the
random chance or the probability of lurking
variables that influence y).
Assignments 7, 8 and 9
22Correlation Coefficient r Coefficient of
Determination, r 2 (calc)
- The correlation coefficient, r, and the
coefficient of determination, r 2 ,will appear
on the screen that shows the regression equation
information (be sure the Diagnostics are turned
on ---2nd Catalog (above 0), arrow down to
DiagnosticOn, press ENTER twice.) - In addition to appearing with the regression
information, the values r and r 2 can be found
under - VARS, 5 Statistics ? EQ 7 r and 8 r 2 .
23Linear Regression (calc)
- A linear regression is also know as the "line of
best fit". - Side note Although commonly used when dealing
with "sets" of data, the linear regression can
also be used to simply find the equation of the
line between two points.Find the equation of the
line passing through (-1, 1) and (-4,7).Entering
the information as described in the example
below, we see the following screens - The equation is y -2x -1.The correlation
coefficient is -1 since both point are "on" the
line and the line slopes negatively
24Linear Regression Model Example (calc)
- Let's examine an example of the linear regression
as it pertains to a "set" of data. - Data Is there a relationship between Math SAT
scores and the number of hours spent studying for
the test? A study was conducted involving 20
students as they prepared for and took the Math
section of the SAT Examination. - Let x be the Hours Spent Studying and y be Math
SAT Score - x y x y x y
- 4 390 22 790 10 690
- 9 580 1 350 11 690
- 10 650 3 400 16 770
- 14 730 8 590 13 700
- 4 410 11 640 13 730
- 7 530 5 450 10 640
- 12 600 6 520
-
25Linear Regression Model Example cont.
- Task
- a) Determine a linear regression model equation
to represent this data. - b) Graph the new equation.
- c) Decide whether the new equation is a "good
fit" to represent this data. - d) Interpolate data If a student studied for
15 hours, based upon this study, what would be
the expected Math SAT score? - e) Interpolate data If a student obtained a
Math SAT score of 720, based upon this study, how
many hours did the student most likely spend
studying? - f) Extrapolate data If a student spent 100
hours studying, what would be the expected Math
SAT score? Discuss this answer. Any answers in
relation to this problem are to be rounded to the
nearest tenth.If rounding is not indicated in a
problem, leave the full calculator entries as
answers
26Linear Regression Model Example cont.
- Step 1. Enter the data into the lists.
- Step 2. Create a scatter plot of the data.
Go to STATPLOT (2nd Y) and choose the
first plot. Turn the plot ON, set the icon to
Scatter Plot (the first one), set Xlist to L1 and
Ylist to L2 (assuming that is where you stored
the data), and select a Mark of your choice. - Step 3. Choose Linear Regression Model.
Press STAT, arrow right to CALC, and arrow down
to 4 LinReg (axb). Hit ENTER. When LinReg
appears on the home screen, type the parameters
L1, L2, Y1. The Y1 will put the equation into Y
for you. (Y1 comes from VARS ? YVARS,
Function, Y1)
27Linear Regression Model Example cont.
- Step 4. Graph the Linear Regression Equation
from Y1. ZOOM 9 ZoomStat to see the graph.
(answer to part b) - Step 5. Is this model a "good fit"? The
correlation coefficient, r, is .9336055153 which
places the correlation into the "strong"
category. (0.8 or greater is a "strong"
correlation) The coefficient of
determination, r 2, is .8716192582 which means
that 87 of the total variation in y can be
explained by the relationship between x and y.
The other 13 remains unexplained. Yes, it
is a "good fit". (answer to part c)
28Linear Regression Model Example cont.
- Step 6. Interpolate (within the data set)
If a student studied for 15 hours, based upon
this study, what would be the expected Math SAT
score? From the graph screen, hit TRACE, arrow
up to obtain the linear equation at the top of
the screen, type 15, hit ENTER, and the answer
will appear at the bottom of the
screen.
(answer to part d --
Math SAT score of 733.1)
29Linear Regression Model Example cont.
- Step 7. Interpolate (within the data
set) If a student obtained a Math SAT score of
720, based upon this study, how many hours did
the student most likely spend studying? Go to
TBLSET (above WINDOW) and set the TblStart to 13
(since 13 hours gives a score of 700). Set the
delta Tbl to a decimal setting of your choice.
Go to TABLE and arrow up or down to find your
desired score of 720, in the Y1 column
- (answer to part e -- approx. 14.5 hours)
30Linear Regression Model Example cont.
- Step 8. Extrapolate data (beyond the data
set) If a student spent 100 hours studying,
what would be the expected Math SAT score?
Discuss this answer. - With your linear equation in Y1, go to the home
screen and type Y1(100). Press ENTER. (Y1 comes
from VARS ? YVARS, Function, Y1(100)) - Our equation shows that if a student studies 100
hours, he/she should score 2885.8 on the Math
section of the SAT examination. The only problem
with this answer is that the highest score that
can be obtained is 800. So why is this score so
outrageous? ANSWER When you extrapolate data,
the further you move away from the data set, the
less accurate your information becomes. In this
problem, the largest number of hours in the data
set was 22 hours, but the extrapolation tried to
jump to 100 hours. (answer to part f)
31ExampleLinear Regression with Biological
Data(or the realities of working with real-life
data)
- Pierce (1949) measured the frequency (thenumber
of wing vibrations per second) of chirps made by
a ground cricket, at various ground
temperatures. Since crickets are ectotherms
(cold-blooded), the rate of their physiological
processes and their overall metabolism are
influenced by temperature. Consequently, there
is reason to believe that temperature would have
a profound effect on aspects of their behavior,
such as chirp frequency.
32Example cont.
- Chirps/Second Temperature (º F)
- 20.0 88.6
- 16.0 71.6
- 19.8 93.3
- 18.4 84.3
- 17.1 80.6
- 15.5 75.2
- 14.7 69.7
- 17.1 82.0
- 15.4 69.4
- 16.2 83.3
- 15.0 78.6
- 17.2 82.6
- 16.0 80.6
- 17.0 83.5
- 14.1 76.3
33Example cont.
- Task
- Determine a linear regression model equation to
represent this data - Graph the new equation.
- Decide whether the new equation is a "good fit"
to represent this data. - Extrapolate data If the ground temperature
reached 95º, then at what approximate rate would
you expect the crickets to be chirping? - Interpolate data With a listening device, you
discovered that on a particular morning the
crickets were chirping at a rate of 18 chirps per
second. What was the approximate ground
temperature that morning? - f) If the ground temperature should drop to
freezing (32º F), what happens to the
cricket's chirping? Answers in this problem are
to be rounded to the nearest thousandth.
34Example cont.
- Step 1. Enter the data into the lists.
- Step 2. Create a scatter plot of the data.
Go to STATPLOT (2nd Y) and choose the
first plot. Turn the plot ON, set the icon to
Scatter Plot (the first one), set Xlist to L1 and
Ylist to L2 (assuming that is where you stored
the data), and select a Mark of your
choice.Obviously, there is some scatter to this
data. This variability is the norm, rather than
the exception, when working with biological data
sets. Real life data seldom creates a nice
straight line. - Step 3. Choose the Linear Regression Model.
Press STAT, arrow right to CALC, and arrow down
to 4 LinReg (axb). Hit ENTER. When LinReg
appears on the home screen, type the parameters
L1, L2, Y1. The Y1 will put the equation in to
Y for you. (Y1 comes from VARS ?
YVARS, Function, Y1)
35Example cont.
- Step 4. Graph the Linear Regression Equation
from Y1. ZOOM 9 ZoomStat to see the graph.
(answer to part b) - Step 5. Is this model a "good fit"? The
correlation coefficient, r, is .8364792791 which
just barely places the correlation into the
"strong" category. (0.8 or greater is a "strong"
correlation) The coefficient of
determination, r 2, is .6996975844 which means
that 70 of the total variation in y can be
explained by the relationship between x and y.
The other 30 remains unexplained. Yes, it
is somewhat of a "good fit". (answer to part
c)
36Example cont.
- Step 6. Extrapolate (beyond the data set)
If the ground temperature reached 95º, then at
what approximate rate would you expect the
crickets to be chirping?Go to TBLSET (above
WINDOW) and set the TblStart to 20 (since the
highest temperature in the data set had 19.8
chirps/second). Set the delta Tbl to a decimal
setting of your choice. Go to TABLE (above
GRAPH) and arrow up or down to find your desired
temperature, 95º, in the Y1 column.
(answer to part d -- approx. 21.265 chirps per
second)
37Example cont.
- Step 7. Interpolate
(within the data set) With a listening
device, you discovered that on a particular
morning the crickets were chirping at a rate of
18 chirps per second. - What was the approximate ground temperature that
morning? From the graph screen, hit TRACE,
arrow up to obtain the power equation, type 47,
hit ENTER, and the answer will appear at the
bottom of the screen. (answer to part e -- the
ground temperature will be approx. 84.407º F)
38Example cont.
- Step 8. If the ground temperature should drop to
freezing (32º F), what happens to the cricket's
chirping? - The TABLE tells us that at 32º F there are 1.85
chirps per second. So, what does this really
mean? Are the crickets cold? - These findings are a bit deceiving. At 32º F,
the crickets are dead. The lifespan of a cricket
in a cold climate is very short. The crickets
spend the winter as eggs laid in the soil. These
eggs hatch in late spring or early summer, and
tiny immature crickets called nymphs emerge.
Nymphs develop into adults within approximately
90 days. The adults mate and lay eggs in late
summer before succumbing to old age or freezing
temperatures in the fall. - Also, remember that the further you extrapolate
away from the data set, the less reliable the
information will be.