Demographic Changes and Implications for Virginia

1
Demographic Changes and Implications for
Virginias Cities, Towns and Urban Counties
The Brookings Institution
Center on Urban and Metropolitan PolicyRobert
Puentes, Senior Research Manager
Presented to the Virginia Municipal League
October 20, 2003
2
Brookings Institution Center on Urban and
Metropolitan Policy Mission

• to understand the key demographic and market
  trends affecting America today
• to identify the most promising strategies for
  growing healthy places
• to develop a new urban and metropolitan agenda.

3
Demographic Changes and Implications for
Virginias Cities, Towns and Urban Counties
4
Census Defined Central Cities

• In each metropolitan statistical area...the
  largest place and one or more additional places
  are designated as central cities under the
  official standards.
• (Census 2000 Geographic Terms and Concepts)

5
Based on 1999 definitions, Virginia had 13
central cities located in 8 metropolitan areas

• Central cities
• Arlington, Bristol, Charlottesville, Danville,
  Fredericksburg, Hampton, Lynchburg, Newport News,
  Norfolk, Petersburg, Portsmouth, Richmond,
  Roanoke, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, and Alexandria.
• Metropolitan areas
• Charlottesville Danville Lynchburg Roanoke
  Richmond-Petersburg
• Johnson City-Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
  Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA-NC
  Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV

6
Census Defined Urbanized Areas

• An urbanized area (UA) consists of densely
  settled territory...50,000 or more people...U.S.
  Census Bureau delineates UAs to provide ...
  separation of urban and rural
• core census block groups or blocks...population
  density of at least 1,000 people per square mile
• surrounding census blocks...overall density of at
  least 500 people per square mile
• (Census 2000 Geographic Terms and Concepts)

7
Share of state population depends on these
geographic definitions.
Central cities (31.1)
Urbanized areas (73.0)
Metropolitan areas (78.2)
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Virginia is growing quickly and in some
challenging ways
9
Virginia was the 16th fastest growing state, with
an increase from 6.2 to 7.1 million in the1990s
Challenging Growth
Percent Population Change, 1990-2000
US Average 13.2
10
Several Virginia counties experienced rapid
population growth.
Challenging Growth
191.0 123.2 106.0 103.2 102.4 96.9 96.3 9
1.6 90.1 90.0
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Douglas County, CO Forsyth County, GA Elbert
County, CO Henry County, GA Park County,
CO Loudoun County, VA Paulding County, GA Summit
County, UT Boise County, ID Eagle County, CO
Percent Population Change, 1990-2000
61.3 57.5 52.8 51.0 48.0
Fluvanna County, VA Spotsylvania County,
VA Manassas Park, VA Stafford County, VA Green
County, VA
45. 55. 76. 80. 98.
Source U.S. Census Bureau
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Challenging Growth
Over two-thirds of Virginias population growth
came from minority residents.
Source U.S. Census Bureau
12
Challenging Growth
Virginia saw the 7th largest increase in
residents age 65 and older during the 1990s.
Increase of residents 65 and older, 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau
13
Challenging Growth
During the 1990s, only two counties saw an
increase in the percentage of 25-34 year old
residents
Percent Change in Number of 25-34 Year Old
Residents, 1990-2000
-7 to -10
-4 to -6.9
-3 to -3.9
-0 to -2.9
0 to 5
Source U.S. Census Bureau
14
The Commonwealth is decentralizing rapidly
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Virginia ranked relatively low in terms of change
in combined population of central cities
Decentralization
Population Change, 1990-2000
central cities include Arlington CDP, Bristol,
Charlottesville, Danville, Fredericksburg,
Hampton, Lynchburg, Newport News, Norfolk,
Petersburg, Portsmouth, Richmond, Roanoke,
Suffolk and Virginia Beach. For this exercise,
Alexandria was also included because it retains
the characteristics of a central place.
Source U.S. Census Bureau
16
Since 1980, Virginias central cities have grown
slowly and failed to keep pace with statewide
growth rate
Decentralization
Population Share - central cities and Remainder
of State, 1980-2000
central cities include Arlington CDP, Bristol,
Charlottesville, Danville, Fredericksburg,
Hampton, Lynchburg, Newport News, Norfolk,
Petersburg, Portsmouth, Richmond, Roanoke,
Suffolk and Virginia Beach. For this exercise,
Alexandria was also included because it retains
the characteristics of a central place.
Source U.S. Census Bureau
17
In the 1990s, much of Virginia grew rapidly,
while most cities lost population
Decentralization
Population Growth, 1990-2000
Stantoun
Richmond
Hopewell
Lexington
Petersburg
Lynchburg
Roanoke
Radford
Portsmouth
Norfolk
Danville
Martinsville
Bristol
Norton
18
Growth was uneven among Virginias central cities
Decentralization
Population Change, 1990-2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau
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.and inconsistent with growth in neighboring
counties.
Decentralization
Population Change, 1990-2000
Albemarle
Spotsylvania
James City
Hanover
Bedford
Chesapeake
Chesterfield
Pr George
Dinwiddie
Amherst
Washington
Pittsylvania
Roanoke
Stafford
York
Source U.S. Census Bureau
20
Only about half of all jobs in the Norfolk and
Washington metros are within 10 miles of the city
center.
Decentralization
Source John Brennan and Edward W. Hill , Where
are the Jobs? Brookings, 1999
21
Virginias demographics are changing in central
cities and on the suburban fringe
22
Virginias resident population became more
diverse throughout the 1990s
Race/Ethnic composition, 1990 2000
1990
2000
23
In central cities, the white population share
declined relative to the increasing share of
blacks and Hispanics
Race/Ethnic composition, 1990 2000
1990
2000
24
The white population declined in all but two of
Virginias central cities, despite a 6.7 growth
rate, statewide
Change in white population, 1990-2000
25
All but one of the neighboring counties far
surpassed the statewide growth rate of white
residents
Change in white population, 1990-2000
26
The black population lagged the state in every
central city outside Hampton Roads.
Change in black population, 1990-2000
27
Many of the neighboring counties surpassed the
statewide growth rate of black residents
Change in black population, 1990-2000
28
Few counties have significant percentages of
foreign born.
Population Growth, 1990-2000
gt 10
5 to 10
gt 5
29
Education and income levels were much higher in
the neighboring counties compared to Virginias
central cities
30
Educational attainment in central cities varied
widely, but on average was comparable to
Virginias
Share of population 25 years and older with at
least a BA, 2000
31
Neighboring counties tended to have higher rates
than the statewide level and the central cities
average
Share of population 25 years and older with at
least a BA, 2000
32
In the central cities, income levels across
racial groups were often lower than Virginias
levels
Median household Income by race and ethnic group,
2000
33
Regardless of race/ethnicity, the neighboring
counties income levels were often much higher
than Virginias
Median household Income by race and ethnic group,
2000
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Demographic Changes and Implications for
Virginias Cities, Towns and Urban Counties
35
Current Trends are Isolating Low-income Residents
Minorities From Opportunities
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Virginias current pattern of growth is isolating
low-income residents minorities from
opportunities.

• Decentralization
• Exacerbates social isolation in the core.
• Reduces educational opportunities in cities and
  older suburban counties.
• Distances poor people from job opportunities.

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Norfolk and Richmond have a disproportionate
amount of the states welfare cases.
Share of TANF cases, 1999
Share of population
Source Katherine Allen and Maria Kirby.
Unfinished Business Why Cities Matter to
Welfare Reform. Brookings, July 2000.
38
EITC utilization is highest in Virginias largest
cities and in the rural portions of the
Commonwealth
Share of tax-filers using EITC, 2000
39
Poverty remains stubbornly concentrated in cities
and inner suburbs.
Poverty rate change, 1990-2000 Richmond metro
Source Paul Jargowsky, Windows on Urban
Poverty, University of Texas, 2003.
40
Poverty remains stubbornly concentrated in cities
and inner suburbs.
Poverty rate change, 1990-2000 Hampton Roads area
Source Paul Jargowsky, Windows on Urban
Poverty, University of Texas, 2003.
41
Poverty remains stubbornly concentrated in cities
and inner suburbs.
Poverty rate change, 1990-2000 Bristol metro
Source Paul Jargowsky, Windows on Urban
Poverty, University of Texas, 2003.
42
Current Trends are Eroding Rural Heritage
Natural Resources
43
From 1982 1997 only ten other states urbanized
land at a higher rate than Virginia.
42.6 change
Average Annual Change in Developed Land,
1982-1992 and 1992-1997
32.4 change in population from 1980-2000
Source USDA Natural Resources Inventory
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All of Virginias metropolitan areas are
de-densifying
Change in Developed Land, 1982-1997
Source Fulton et al., Who Sprawls Most?
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Current Trends Increase Costs on Municipalities
Taxpayers
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Low density development imposes greater costs on
state and localities.

• Low density development increases demand for

• New schools
• New roads
• New public facilities
• Sewer and water extensions

Low density development increases the costs of
key services

• Police
• Fire
• Emergency medical

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Dispersed development costs localities and
taxpayers more.
Berger (2001)- Kentucky Dollar Costs of New
Services Per 1000 New Residents for a Family of 4
Central City Counties
Development Pattern Cost
Fayette (more concentrated) -1.08 Jefferson (more
spread out) 37.55
Suburban Counties
Shelby (more concentrated) 88.27 Pendleton (more
spread out) 1222.39
Counties With Small Towns
Warren (more concentrated) 53.89 Pulaski (more
spread out) 239.93
Outer Ring and Rural
Garrard (more concentrated) 454.51 McCracken (mo
re spread out) 618.90
Services includes Police, Fire, Highway,
Schools, Sewer, and Solid Waste
Source Mark Berger, Smart Growth and The Cost
of Sprawl in Kentucky Intra-County Analysis.
University of Kentucky, 2001.
48
Virginias current growth could cost taxpayers
nearly 3.7 billion in avoidable infrastructure.

• Recent analysis by Burchell and Downs found that
• Virginia could save 4,726 lane miles of roads and
  almost 225,000 more water and sewer laterals by
  compact growth over the next 25 years.
• Would result in a savings of 3.06 billion in
  road construction costs and 654 million in water
  and sewer infrastructure

Source Robert Burchell and others, Costs of
Sprawl -2000.
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Current Trends Diminish Economic Competitiveness
Quality of Life
50
Competitiveness
Virginias current pattern of growth is hampering
its competitiveness by eroding its quality of
life.

• Decentralization
• Is weakening the downtown cores that attract and
  retain young workers and employers.
• Is reducing choice for different types of
  communities
• Threatens the states best natural amenities and
  the tourism industry.

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Competitiveness
In terms of job growth, Virginia was one of the
slowest growing states between 1990 2000.
Kansas
South Carolina
Nebraska
Indiana
North Dakota
Virginia
Iowa
Alabama
Vermont
Missouri
19.7
19.5
19.4
19.3
19.2
18.7
17.9
17.8
17.7
17.2
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Percent Change in Full and Part-time Jobs,
1990-2000
Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional Economic
Information System
52
Competitiveness
And talent is concentrated in only a few areas
half of 25-34 year olds with BAs live in
northern Virginia.
Percent of 25-34 with Bachelors Degrees by
County, 2000
10 - 21
6 - 9.9
3 - 5.9
.7 - 2.9
State Average 6.38
Source U.S. Census (SF-4) PCT 65
53
Competitiveness
Recent research contends that economic growth
increasingly occurs in places that attract and
retain talented workers
Source Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative
Class, New York Basic Books, 2002.
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Demographic Changes and Implications for
Virginias Cities, Towns and Urban Counties
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The New Competitive Cities Agenda
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Fix the Basics

• Good schools
• Safe streets
• Competitive taxes and services
• 21st century infrastructure
• Functioning real estate market

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Build on Assets

• Fixed institutions (universities and hospitals)
• Employment clusters
• Downtown
• Waterfront
• Cultural institutions/parks

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Create Quality Neighborhoods

• Tap neighborhood markets
• Promote mixed-income communities
• Create home-ownership opportunities
• Enhance access to capital
• Create neighborhood typologies and investment
  strategies with residents
• Invest in distressed and transitioning
  neighborhoods

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Build Family Wealth

• Access to quality jobs
• Income and work supports
• Access to financial institutions
• Asset building

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Influence Metropolitan Growth

• Metropolitan governance
• Land-use reform
• Transportation reform
• Access to metropolitan opportunity
• Urban reinvestment

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Demographic Changes and Implications for
Virginias Cities, Towns and Urban Counties
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State and Federal Policy
Fix the Basics
Tax Reform
Urban Land Reform (tax delinquency, building
codes, brownfield reform)
Build on Assets
Creating Quality Neighborhoods
Avoid concentrated housing investments
Build Family Assets
Prosperity Campaign (EITC Outreach)
Influence Metropolitan Growth
Disclose/re-target state spending review state
administrative policy
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