Knots, Solutions, and Governance Conundrums

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• Knots, Solutions, and Governance Conundrums
• Barrie Stevens
• OECD/International Futures Programme
• Poland and Regions the Perspectives of
  development in the XXI Century
• IV Warsaw Conference, 24-25 October 2008

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A Global Outreach
OECD Member Countries
Countries/Economies Engaged in Working
Relationships with the OECD
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OECD Key Tasks

• Promote policies to achieve sustainable economic
  growth and employment and rising standards of
  living in member countries, and contribute to the
  development of the world economy.
• Help member governments address the economic,
  social and environmental challenges of
  globalisation.
• Provide a setting where governments can compare
  policy experiences, seek answers to common
  problems, identify good practice, and work to
  co-ordinate domestic and international policies.
• Strategic foresight helps underpin the fulfilment
  of these tasks by identifying future policy
  issues (threats and opportunities) and
  encouraging early thinking and timely action.

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Fundamental global trends

• Population growth and ageing
• Gravitational shift in poles of economic growth
• Rising number of important players in the world
  economy
• Uncertainties of climate change
• Growing interconnectedness

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Examples of recent OECD IFP work related to the
Gordian Knots

• Global Infrastructure Investment Requirements to
  2030 (the case of water)
• The Bioeconomy to 2030 (the case of food and
  agriculture)
• The Future of International Migration (the case
  of competition for talent)

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• Global Infrastructure Investment Requirements to
  2030

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Estimated average annual world infrastructure
investment requirements 2003-2030 (additions and
renewal) In USD Bn and as a percentage of world
GDP
Type of infrastructure 2000-10 Approx. of world GDP 2010-20 Approx. of world GDP 2020-30 Approx. of world GDP
Road 220 0.38 245 0.32 292 0.29
Rail 49 0.09 54 0.07 58 0.06
Telecoms1 654 1.14 646 0.85 171 0.17
Electricity2 127 0.22 180 0.24 241 0.24
Water1,3 576 1.01 772 1.01 1 037 1.03
1. Estimates apply to the years 2005, 2015 and
2025. 2. Transmission and distribution only. 3.
Only OECD countries, Russia, China, India and
Brazil are considered here.
Table 1 p 29 - Infrastructure to 2030 Telecom,
Land Transport, Water and Electricity (2006)
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Water stress by major water basins in 2000 and
2030

• Source OECD Environment Directorate
  (2006), Working Party on Global and Structural
  Policies, Revised environmental baseline for the
  OECD environmental outlook to 2030, 20-21
  November 2006, ENV/EPOC/GSP(2006)23

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Two track approach to bridging the water
infrastructure gap

• Find additional funding and develop innovative
  approaches to finance (public and private)
• Use infrastructure more efficiently and more
  intelligently through more demand management,
  improved strategic planning, more effective
  governance, and improved integration of existing
  and new technologies.
• Requires major international effort with wide
  range of countries, not least in Africa, Middle
  East, Central Asia, South and SE Asia)

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• The Bioeconomy to 2030 health, industry, and
  food agriculture applications

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Drivers for agricultural production
Increasing Affluence
Population
Climate Change
Biofuels
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Scale of the challenge

• Per capita world grain production to increase
  from 305kg in 2000 to 340kg in 2030 (2.8 billion
  tonnes)
• Average consumption in developed countries is
  twice this amount
• Consumption in developing countries is increasing
  
• Per capita meat consumption in China increased
  from 20kg in 1980 to 50kg in 2007
• If everyone adopts a European diet, there will be
  a shortfall of 2.3 billion tonnes
• Assumes no grain use for biofuels
• Assumes no change in yields due to climate change

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By 2030, bulk of agbio production and RD will
have moved to developing countries

• Strong evidence that European agbio RD has
  slowed down significantly
• Developing country activity has increased
• Of the 8 countries planting more than a million
  ha of GM crops, 6 are non-OECD countries
  (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Paraguay, South
  Africa)
• Over 550 biotech field trials have occurred in 47
  non-OECD countries
• Major agricultural biotechnology programmes

Country Agricultural biotechnology RD spending (in USD)
Brazil 5 billion over the next 10 years
China 120 million per year, including major projects on GM rice
India 100 million per year
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Concentration has been intense
Percent of all GM field trial applications by
leading firms
1995 1997 2,746 field trials 2005-2007 3,207 field trials
Top firm (Monsanto) 22.0 47.2
Top 5 firms1 53.0 79.6
Top 10 firms 69.0 90.9
Top 20 firms 82.7 96.1
Top 25 firms 86.4 97.6
Source OECD, based on the UNU-MERIT GM Field
trial database Notes (1) The top five firms in
2004-2007 were Monsanto, Targeted Growth,
DuPont-Pioneer Hibred, Bayer Crop Science, and
Syngenta.
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International cooperation

• Given the geographic imbalance between supply and
  demand, trade access will be paramount
• Cooperation and joint ventures for RD,
  particularly to adapt technologies to local
  conditions, will be essential
• - Robust global competition will help ensure
  that RD is efficient

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• The Future of International Migration

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Major migration patterns in the early 21st Century
Source United Nations
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Factors favouring future migration flows to OECD
countries

• Persistent income level differentials
• Poor social infrastructures (health, education
  etc.)
• War and civil unrest
• Poor governance
• Climate change and natural disasters

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Factors impeding future migration flows to OECD
countries

• Fast growth in key non-OECD economies to 2030,
  making for growing appetite for labour
• Improved education and research facilities in
  non-OECD countries
• Improved health and social infrastructures
• Emerging economies as attractors and retainers of
  highly skilled manpower
• Growing competition for global labour supplies

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International co-operation to manage migration
flows

• Labour migration skilled and unskilled - to
  alleviate labour shortages and the adverse impact
  of ageing populations in OECD countries
• Controlling irregular migration
• Securing successful integration of immigrants and
  their children
• Making best use of the human capital of
  immigrants
• Strengthening co-operation between countries with
  respect to migration and development
• Managing adverse effects of the talent crunch

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The Governance Conundrum (1)

• Three different examples of global issues
  requiring stronger international co-operation,
  each involving wide range of countries in
  different configurations.
• Reflects globalisation where both opportunities
  and responsibilities are more widely shared.
• Representativeness and inclusiveness required to
  address the diversity of countries and issues and
  claim legitimacy and credibility.
• But how to be inclusive and effective?

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The Governance Conundrum (2)

• Is there a trade-off between universality and
  effectiveness?
• In the current climate, is it then more important
  to be effective than legitimate?
• New fixed architecture or variable geometry?
• Personal relations and institutional memory are
  key, but in which setting are they more
  effective?
• OECD experience

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• Thank you.
• Barrie Stevens
• barrie.stevens_at_oecd.org

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World population in 2030
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