Retail Market Overview

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Retail Market Overview
Update to 29 February 2004Original presentation
delivered by Sean Botha
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Contents

• 1. Total seafood
• Highlights
• Chilled frozen spend volume
• Multiples vs. non-multiples

• 4. Frozen seafood
• Market health check
• Branded vs. private label spend

• 5. Chilled natural salmon
• Analysis of weekly volumes

• 2. Long-term trends
• Chilled vs. frozen expenditure
• Chilled vs. frozen volume

• 6. Comparison of proteins
• Key performance indicators

• 3. Total chilled seafood
• Market health check
• Long-term trends in penetration
• Top 5 species
• Sector share of spend

• 7. Hot topics
• Hot topic 1 Demographics
• Hot topic 2 Shellfish
• Hot topic 3 Northern Ireland

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Total seafood highlights
(52 weeks ending 29 February 2004)
Total seafood - share of spend

• Total spend on seafood in multiples is nearly
  1.6 billion in the latest year, an increase of
  9.6 on last year.
• The strongest year-on-year value growth was seen
  by Tesco, followed by Waitrose and Safeway
  respectively.

Multiples 88
Co-ops 2
Other non-grocers 7

• Other non-grocers (which includes fishmongers)
  experienced a 7 year-on-year decline in spend.
• Seafood has the one of the strongest year-on-year
  growth rates out of all proteins in retail.
• Total seafood reached its highest average price
  over the 4-weekly period ending 04 January 2004,
  when it reached 7.13 per kg.

8
6
change since last year
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Spend
Volume
Average price
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Total Seafood

Chilled frozen spend volume
Chilled seafood volume is almost as high as
frozen, and with the current strong growth rate
it is anticipated that chilled seafood volume
will exceed frozen before the end of 2004.
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Total Seafood

Multiples vs. non-multiples (expenditure)
Multiples (which includes MS and Iceland) have
increased their share of the total seafood market
spend by 10, while non-multiples lost 1. Tesco
hold the greatest share of spend and have seen
the highest growth, with Sainsburys following
closely. Strong growth rates for Asda means they
are gaining market share on Marks and Spencer.
Total spend
1.79 billion
1.65 billion
1.56 billion
Please note that Marks Spencer and Iceland
are included in Total Multiples
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Long-term trends

Chilled vs. frozen expenditure
Chilled seafood expenditure exceeded frozen in
1996, but growth remained relatively static until
1998. From 1992 to 2003, chilled seafood
expenditure has more than doubled and now stands
at over 1 billion. Frozen seafood expenditure
declined by 10 million over the period 1996 -
1998, but has since recovered.
Annual data is up to end of December/start of
January.
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Long-term trends

Chilled vs. frozen volume
Frozen seafood volume remains higher than
chilled, but is currently in decline
(year-on-year). Chilled volume is expected to
surpass frozen before the end of 2004 if the
current rising trend continues.
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Total chilled seafoodMarket health check
The increased expenditure on chilled seafood is a
result of consumers purchasing more expensive
chilled seafood more frequently
52 w/e 29 Feb 04
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Total Chilled seafood

Long-term trends in penetration ()
5 years ago 19 million households were buying
chilled seafood in a year between 1999 and 2001,
860,000 new households started buying chilled
seafood. In the last year, over 20 million
households have purchased a type of chilled
seafood at least once.
NB! Calculations based on 24.5 million GB
households
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Total chilled seafood Top five species - spend,
volume average price
( change vs. last year)
Although salmon accounts for the highest share of
chilled seafood spend (31), Prawns have gained
share in the last year and now account for a
12share.
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04
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Total chilled seafoodSector share of spend and
yr-on-yr change
Added value seafood and chilled shellfish are
driving growth in total chilled seafood spend
added value seafood is now the second largest
sector in spend share terms.
Share of expenditure by sector
expenditure change 04 vs 03
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04
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Total frozen seafoodMarket health check
During the first 2 months of 2004, frozen seafood
volumes recovered from their decline. Although
less people are buying frozen seafood less often,
higher volumes are purchased at each shopping
trip (possibly due to promotions).
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04
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Total Frozen SeafoodExpenditure - Branded vs
private label
Private label frozen seafood expenditure has
increased by 12 since last year the share
between branded and private label frozen seafood
is now almost the same. Looking at the 4 months
since the start of November 2003, private label
share of spend has actually exceeded branded (52
vs. 48).
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Chilled natural salmon
3-year comparison of
weekly volumes (tonnes)
The effect of the salmon scare on the chilled
natural salmon in retail market seems to have
continued into February. Weekly volumes for the
week ending 08-Feb-04 were 38 lower than the
same week the previous year, however the volumes
have since recovered. Please note that the drop
in volumes cannot be solely attributed to the
negative press coverage.
Negative press hit
-12
-38
change 2004 v 2003
22
-20
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Comparison of proteins

Key performance indicators
Total seafood is the second largest protein in
terms of expenditure and penetration, (after
chicken) and commands the highest average price.
Primary beef
Primary lamb
Primary chicken
Primary pork
Total seafood
Expenditure ( million)
3,009
1,435
513
432
1,778
Volume (KG million)
280.4
289.9
89.5
739.4
158.6
Avg price (/kg)
6.34
4.95
5.73
3.41
4.10
Penetration ( of GB population)
23.5
80.7
38
67.9
56.9
AWP volume (grammes)
1,595
1,196
2,875
1,310
1,211
Percentage of GB population purchasing over 4
weeks ending 04-Jan-04
TNS Superpanel 52 w/e 04-Jan-04
Volume (grammes) purchased over 4 weeks ending
04-Jan-04
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Hot Topics
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Demographics

Demographic map of selected fish types
Chilled salmon appeals to more consumers in
social classes ABC1 than frozen salmon. Chilled
natural white fish has less appeal for consumers
of younger ages than frozen white fish.
Younger lower social class
Young higher social class
Total frozen fish
TOTAL GB POPULATION
Total frozen white fish
Total frozen natural salmon
Total frozen salmon
of population aged 16 - 44 years
Total chilled salmon
Total chilled fish
Total chilled natural salmon
Total frozen natural white fish
Total chilled white fish
Older higher social class
Older lower social class
Total chilled natural white fish
of population in social classes ABC1
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Demographics

Fish - volume share by size of household
More households with 5 members prefer to buy
frozen natural white fish than total fish.
Overall, 2-member households buy the majority of
fish, and this is particularly the case in the
chilled sector.
Chilled natural white fish
Frozen natural white fish
TOTAL FISH
Frozen natural salmon
Chilled natural salmon
2 members
3 members
4 members
5 members
1 member
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Demographics

Demographic map of selected shellfish types
Chilled natural warm water prawns are mostly
purchased by consumers in social classes ABC1
these consumers tend to be younger than purchases
of frozen natural warm water prawns.
Younger lower social class
Younger higher social class
Total frozen fish
Total frozen natural shellfish
Total frozen shellfish
Total frozen natural cold water prawns
TOTAL GB POPULATION
Total chilled shellfish
Total chilled natural cold water prawns
Total chilled natural warm water prawns
of population aged 16 - 44 years
Total frozen natural warm water prawns
Older lower social class
Total chilled fish
Older higher social class
of population in social classes ABC1
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Demographics

Regional volume share of selected seafood
In general consumers living in London purchase
the largest share of fish volumes in GB, followed
by the Midlands and Lancashire. Chilled seafood
is particularly popular in London, while frozen
seafood is favoured more by consumers in
Lancashire.
Total volume (tonnes)
24,280
6,149
107,772
15,484
22,124
22,124
143,203
138,139
281,332
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29 Feb 04
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Shellfish

Key performance indicators of
top chilled species
Total crab sticks
Total prawns
Total mussels
Total crab
Total chilled shellfish
Expenditure ( million)
11.2
19.1
8.9
183.7
130.1
change
20
28
3
18
-13
Volume (KG million)
2.5
4.7
0.9
21.7
12.6
change
10
15
3
17
-21
Avg price (/kg)
4.56
4.10
9.53
8.47
10.32
9
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N/C
1
11
change
Penetration ( of GB population)
7
13.7
4.3
45.4
36.9
change
change
2
4
-6
8
-21
AWP volume (grammes)
1,427
1,387
884
1,952
1,393
change
change
8
10
10
8
-1
TNS Superpanel 52 w/e 29-Feb-04
N/C No Change
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Shellfish

Key performance indicators of
top frozen species
Total prawns
Total scampi
Total lobster
Total calamari
Total frozen shellfish
Expenditure ( million)
4.3
45.5
1.3
171.9
117
change
11
13
15
20
-18
Volume (KG million)
0.4
5.2
0.3
24.3
17.4
change
-4
-4
8
18
-48
Avg price (/kg)
9.74
8.69
4.68
7.08
4.17
16
-15
6
2
58
change
Penetration ( of GB population)
3.2
19.6
1.3
50.3
41.9
change
change
-4
-6
1
34
-39
AWP volume (grammes)
554
1,088
854
1,971
1,697
change
change
N/C
2
7
-12
-15
N/C No Change
TNS Superpanel 52 w/e 29-Feb-04
Data refers to TOTAL shellfish by species
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Shellfish

Volume trends of natural chilled
prawns by type
Volumes of natural chilled warm water prawns have
increased over the last three years over the
4-weeks ending 07 December 2003, they reached
their highest ever level of volume sales (341
tonnes). Natural chilled cold water prawns still
represent the largest share of natural chilled
prawn volumes (63over the latest 4-week period).
2001
2004
2002
2003
Not applicable refers to prawns which cannot be
identified as cold or warm water.
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Shellfish

Volume trends of natural frozen prawns
by type
Trends of natural frozen prawns are more erratic,
possibly as a result of higher promotion
activity. Higher sales occur over the Christmas
and Easter periods. A small proportion of frozen
warm water prawns are purchased in the retail
sector (59 tonnes over the latest 4-weekly
period).
2001
2004
2002
2003
Not applicable refers to prawns which cannot be
identified as cold or warm water.
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Northern Ireland

Key performance indicators
Growth in spend on seafood in Northern Ireland is
strong, particularly in the chilled sector.
Chilled smoked fish represents 28 share of
chilled spend (16 of total spend), and increased
sales by 109 since last year - total spend came
to just over 7 million for the year ending 29
February 2004.
Chilled
Frozen
Total seafood
Expenditure ( million)
18.9
44.5
25.5
14
change vs previous year
32
-4
Volume (KG million)
3.6
6.8
3.1
change vs previous year
6
28
-8
Avg price (/kg)
6.58
5.21
8.19
8
change vs previous year
3
4
Penetration ( of GB population)
96.1
88.2
73.8
2
change vs previous year
-1
5
AWP volume (grammes)
6,995
11,916
7,162
8
change vs previous year
3
4
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04
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Northern Ireland

Total seafood value volume share
In both NI and ROI chilled seafood has increased
its share of the market from last year, based on
greater growth rates relative to the frozen
sector. The situation changes across markets with
respect to expenditure, chilled seafood
accounting for the greater share.
281,332
6,755
14,658
1,786,101
44,452
133,378
Frozen
Chilled
Value
Volume
Value
Volume
Value
Volume
Great Britain
N. Ireland
R. of Ireland
TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04
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Northern Ireland
Volume
(tonnes) of chilled seafood species
Salmon is responsible for the greatest share of
the chilled market, also experiencing
considerable growth in the last year. Although
Prawns/Scampi hold a smaller share of volume,
growth has been impressive. Total chilled smoked
fish species have performed extremely well in the
latest year, increasing volume sales by 87 to
716 tonnes.
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87
15
60

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TNS Superpanel, 52 w/e 29-Feb-04
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For further information please contact
Sean Botha Market Insight Executive s_botha_at_seafis
h.co.uk 0131 524 8631