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Weather 101 or Beyond the Weather Channel

• Edward J. Hopkins, PhD
• Assistant Wisconsin State Climatologist
• Dept. of Atmospheric Oceanic Sciences
• University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 20 June 2012
• Dodge Fond du Lac County Forage Council
  Twilight Meeting
• University of Wisconsin-Extension
• Mayville, WI

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Differences between Weather Climate

• Climate is what you expect, weather is what you
  get.
• Weather is
• Weather (weder)
• State of atmosphere at a given place or time.
• Climate is
• Climate (klima)
• Typical conditions extremes for a local.

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• See http//www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/pdf/newslet
  ter/Spring_2012_Vol4_Iss1.pdf
• http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/
  long_range/poe_index.php?lead1vart
• The group will certainly be different than the
  2005 group.  I would suggest building the topic
  as close to the weather conditions that are we
  are currently experiencing. The summer solstice
  is a great point from which to begin. What has
  happened prior to that point (known) to
  predicting what will happen in the rest of the
  growing season. I think that growing degree days
  is a great indicator of what has happened
  weather-wise and what is needed to make a
  successful crop from that point on. (Just a
  suggestion for a point from which to start.)My
  nephew (who says that he had you for a class at
  UW and now works at The Weather Channel) says
  that Monsanto has contracted with TWC as a
  partnership in developing new hybrids. He is
  tight-lipped on what that is about, but perhaps
  you would have some insight into this as well.
• http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon
  itoring/cdus/degree_days/gdd.shtml
• http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon
  itoring/cdus/degree_days/grodgree.txt

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• Extreme rain events in Midwest double over last
  50 years -- The non-profit Rocky Mountain Climate
  Organization and the Natural Resources Defense
  Council recently released a study entitled
  "Doubled Trouble More Midwestern Extreme
  Storms," revealing a dramatic increase in the
  number of major precipitation events that produce
  deadly and costly flooding across eight
  Midwestern States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,
  Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) over the
  last half century. Rainstorms producing three or
  more inches in 24 hours increased by 103 percent
  between 1961 and 2011. The Rocky Mountain
  Climate Organization http//www.rockymountainclim
  ate.org/reports_3.htm

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COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER CLIMATE

• Weather
• Current Weather Observational Data
• Weather Maps
• Weather Forecasts

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MADISONS CURRENT WEATHER

• Madison Weather at 1000 AM CST MON 21 FEB 2005
• Updated twice an hour at 05 and 25
  
• Sky/Weather CLOUDY
• Temperature 32F
• Dew Point 22F
• Relative Humidity 66
• Wind NW 8 mph
• Pressure
  1014.9 mb (29.97 in)

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TODAYS NATIONAL WEATHER
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TOMORROWS NATIONAL WEATHER
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COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER CLIMATE

• Weather
• Current Weather Observational Data
• Weather Maps
• Weather Forecasts
• Climate
• Long-term statistics
• Climate maps charts
• Long Range Forecasts/Outlooks

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Highest average temperatures In mid July
Summer Solstice on 21 June
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From National Climatic Data Center
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Anomaly actual current T - long term average T
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Summer (JJA) 2012 OutlookFrom NOAA Climate
Prediction Center
Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook
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Differences between Weather and Climate

• Climate is what you expect, weather is what you
  get
• Weather is
• State of atmosphere at a given place or time.
• Climate is
• Typical conditions extremes
• Whats the bottom line?
• Be able to react and cope with each.

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Weather/Climate Forecasting

• Folklore/Legends
• Some folklore has scientific merit
• Red sunsets/sunrises
• Rainbows
• Haloes

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Red skies (or sails)Red sails at night, sailors
delight,Red sails at morning, sailors take
warning
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RainbowsIf seen in evening, fair weather
aheadBut, unsettled weather when seen in morning.
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Halo PhenomenaUsually indicates precipitation
within 48 hours
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Folklore

• Some folklore has scientific merit
• Red sunsets/sunrises
• Rainbows
• Haloes
• But others do not
• Groundhog Day

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Groundhog Day

• If Candlemas be fair and bright,Winter has
  another flight.If Candlemas brings clouds and
  rain,Winter will not come again.
• Six more weeks of winter
• Early spring?

Jimmy the Groundhog of Sun Prairie did not see
his shadow on 2 Feb 2005!
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Almanacs

• Forecasts derived from a secret formula
• devised by Almanac founder Robert B. Thomas in
  1792
• He believed that weather was influenced by
  sunspots.
• Today they employ 3 scientific disciplines to
  make long-range predictions
• solar science
• climatology
• meteorology
• our results are almost always very close to our
  traditional claim of 80 percent.

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What The Old Farmers Almanac Thinks(Nov
2004-Oct 2005)
Above average Dec Temp precip
Above average Dec Temp precip
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Warm west, chilly east
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Dry west, wet east
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Weather/Climate Forecasting

• Folklore/Legends
• Persistence or Trends

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Persistence or Trends

• Forecast future event based upon a current
  condition or trend
• What happened yesterday or today, will happen
  tomorrow.
• Or
• Move weather systems along with same speed.

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Trends
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Nowcasts
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Current Drought Conditions
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Climate Outlook (Forecast)
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Weather/Climate Forecasting

• Folklore/Legends
• Persistence or Trends
• Analogs

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Analog

• This weather pattern (storm) looks like a
  previous system.
• Keep file of old weather maps
• Forecast based upon behavior of previous storm.

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SS Edmund Fitgerald The Pride of the American
side
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Comparison between 10 Nov 1975 10 Nov 1998
Storms(From Ackerman Knox)
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Weather/Climate Forecasting

• Folklore/Legends
• Persistence or Trends
• Analogs
• Single Station Forecasting

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Weather Conditions around Mid latitude Storm
system
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Weather along Storm Tracks(A) Warm Side vs. (B)
Cold side
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Weather Conditions on the Warm Side of Storm
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Weather Conditions on Cold Side of storm
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Weather/Climate Forecasting

• Folklore/Legends
• Persistence or Trends
• Analogs
• Single Station Forecasting
• Climatology

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Using Climatology
Record Highs
Record Lows
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Using Climatology
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Using Climatology
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Using Climatology
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Using Climatology
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Probability Forecast based on Climatology
Madison 2 of 3 or 67
Green Bay 3 of 4 or 77
Wausau 9 of 10 or 93
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Weather/Climate Forecasting

• Folklore/Legends
• Persistence or Trends
• Analogs
• Single Station Forecasting
• Climatology
• Numerical Weather Prediction

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Numerical Weather Prediction

• Developed in last 50 years
• Run on super computers
• Use Equations that employ
• Newtons Laws of Motion
• Conservation of mass energy
• Gas laws thermodynamics

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Numerical Weather PredictionMaking a grid of
initial data
40 km ? 40 km 50 levels
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Numerical Weather Prediction Applying the
Equations of Atmospheric Motion
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Numerical Weather Prediction
Time steps on order of minutes
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Numerical Weather Prediction

• Nowcasts
• Short term
• Medium Range
• Outlooks

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Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Jet Stream Level
Winds
From Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
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Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Surface Weather
Systems
From Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
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24-hr Quantitative Precipitation ForecastValid 6
PM tonight
From Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
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COMPARISON OF FORECASTS OVER TIME
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Wed AM
Thurs AM
Fri AM
Sat AM
Sun AM
Medium Range Forecast3-7 Day From HPC
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Medium Range Outlook8-14 Day from HPC
Temp Prob Next Mon thru Sun
Precip Prob Next Mon thru Sun
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Numerical Weather Prediction

• Types of NWP Models
• Nowcasts
• Short term
• Medium Range
• Outlooks

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Effects of Above Average SST on North America
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Effect of El Niño
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Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST 1930-2000
1982-83
1997-98
Recent Major El NiñoWarm Phase Episodes
1994-95
1991-93
1986-87
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Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Last
Fall in Celsius degrees (Current - Average SST
values) NOAA-NESDIS
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Recent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies
in Celsius degrees (Current - Average SST values)
NOAA-NESDIS
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Monthly Outlook for March 2005from NOAA Climatic
Prediction Center (CPC)
Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook
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Monthly Seasonal OutlookFrom CPC
Mar 2005
Spring 2005
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Contact Information

• Ed Hopkins ejhopkin_at_wisc.edu
• State Climatology Office1225 W. Dayton
  St.,Madison, WI 53706 http//www.aos.wisc.edu/
  sco

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ANNUAL GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATUREfor
Instrumental Period of Record
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Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST 1930-2000See
Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)
1982-83
1997-98
Recent Major El NiñoWarm Phase Episodes
1994-95
1991-93
1986-87
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WHATS INVOLVED

• Long-term Normal Conditions
• Atmospheric Component
• Semi-permanent Pressure Patterns
• Wind Circulation Regime
• Precipitation Patterns.
• Oceanic Component
• Large-Scale Ocean Circulation
• Upwelling
• Sea-surface temperature patterns
• Thermocline.

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Average Air Pressure Atmospheric Circulation
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OCEAN CURRENTS
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UPWELLING along South American Coast See Figures
9.21 9.22 Moran (2002)
Fig. 9.22 - Ekman Spiral
Fig. 9.21 - Resulting Upwelling
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See Figure 9.23 A, Moran (2002)
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Effect of El Niño
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See Figure 9.23 B, Moran (2002)
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Effects of SST on North Americasee Figure 9.24,
Moran (2002)
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El Niño Teleconnections see also Figure 9.24,
Moran (2002)

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Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST 1930-2000See
Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)
Recent Major La NiñaCold Phase Episodes
1975
1995-96
1973
1998-2000
1988
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A Recent La Niña From NOAA
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La Niña Teleconnections

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Weather/Climate Forecasting

• Folklore/Legends
• Persistence or Trends
• Analogs
• Single Station Forecasting
• Climatology
• Numerical Weather Prediction
• Statistical

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Changing climate from thermometersAround the
globe
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March 2012 Statewide Temp
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June 2012 OutlookFrom NOAA Climate Prediction
Center
Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook