REAL TIME AURORA OVAL FORECASTING: SVALTRACK II

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REAL TIME AURORA OVAL FORECASTING SVALTRACK II
F. Sigernes 1, M. Dyrland 1, P. Brekke 2, E. K.
Gjengedal 3, S. Chernouss 4, D.A. Lorentzen 1,
K. Oksavik 1 and C. S. Deehr 5
1 The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS),
N-9171 Longyearbyen, Norway 2 Norwegian Space
Centre, Oslo, Norway 3 Storm Weather Center,
Bergen, Norway 4 Polar Geophysical Institute,
Murmansk Region, Apatity, Russia 5 Geophysical
Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA
37th Annual European Meeting on Atmospheric
Studies by Optical Methods, 23-27 August 2010,
Valladolid, Spain.
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A MATEMATICAL REPRESENTATION OF THE AURORAL OVALS
The magnetic input parameter is the AL index
related to the planetary Kp index
Poleward and equatorward boundaries of auroral
oval in geomagnetic co-latitude
where amplitudes Ai and phases ai is given by
REFERENCES
1 Starkov, G. V., Mathematical model of the
auroral boundaries, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy,
34, 3, 331-336, 1994. 2 Starkov, G. V.,
Statistical dependences between the magnetic
activity indices, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 34,
1, 101-103, 1994.
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COEFFICIENTS

Poleward boundary of the auroral oval Poleward boundary of the auroral oval Poleward boundary of the auroral oval Poleward boundary of the auroral oval Poleward boundary of the auroral oval Poleward boundary of the auroral oval Poleward boundary of the auroral oval Poleward boundary of the auroral oval
b0 -0.07 -10.06 -4-44 -3.77 -6.61 6.37 -4.48
b1 24.54 19.83 7.47 7.90 10.17 -1.10 10.16
b2 -12.53 -9.33 -3.01 -4.73 -5.80 0.34 -5.87
b3 2.15 1.24 0.25 0.91 1.19 -0.38 0.98
Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval Equatorward boundary of the auroral oval
b0 1.61 -9.59 -12.07 -6.56 -2.22 -23.98 -20.07
b1 23.21 17.78 17.49 11.44 1.50 42.79 36.67
b2 -10.97 -7.20 -7.96 -6.73 -0.58 -26.96 -24.20
b3 2.03 0.96 1.15 1.31 0.08 5.56 5.11
Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora
b0 3.44 -2.41 -0.74 -2.12 -1.68 8.69 8.61
b1 29.77 7.89 3.94 3.24 -2.48 -20.73 -5.34
b2 -16.38 -4.32 -3.09 -1.67 1.58 13.03 -1.36
b3 3.35 0.87 0.72 0.31 -0.28 -2.14 0.76
Table 1. Expansion coefficients for auroral
boundaries by Starkov 1.
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GEOGRAPHICAL TRANSFORM
Cartesian components
- is the longitudinal difference between the
sub-solar point and the magnetic poles at time
t (hours).
Geographical coordinates
Latitude and longitude
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VISUALIZATION

• Includes
• Equatorward boundary of the diffuse aurora
• Aurora oval Kp3
• Magnetic north pole
• Field of view aurora observer
• Observer location
• Moon and Sun information at local site
• Position of satellites (Rapideye 1)

The oval is visualized with a stand alone 32-bit
executable Windows program called SvalTrackII.
The program is written in Borlands Delphi
Pascal and uses a Geographic Information System
(GIS) unit called TGlobe.
The twilight zone, night- and dayside of the
Earth are projected with grades of shade on the
Globe as a function of time.
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ANIMATION
Animated aurora ovals as a function of Kp index
08 and time for 24th December 2009
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All Sky View
Local all sky view of ovals as a function of Kp
index 08 and time for 24th December 2009 from
KHO (78N,16E)
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THE 1 HOUR PREDICTED Kp INDEX
SOURCE Space Weather Prediction Centre (SWPC) at
the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index model was
developed by Kirt Costello at Rice University
under support from the US Air Force and Sterling
Software, Inc. It is a neural network algorithm
that trains on the response of the Kp geomagnetic
activity index to solar wind parameters / data.
The model returns an one hour prediction in
units of Kp. It updates / predicts every 15
minutes.
15 minutes oval update
http//kho.unis.no
http//www.swpc.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/costello_lat
est.html
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CONCLUDING REMARK A method to mathematically
calculate the size and location of the aurora
oval onto a solar illuminated Earth globe is
presented as function of estimated Kp index and
time. The system may be used as a forecast when
the Kp value is estimated from satellite data one
hour upstream in the solar wind. PS! The
Svaltrack II program is fredwareit cost II beers.
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• Acknowledgement
• We wish to thank
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
  Administration (NOAA) - Space Weather Prediction
  Centre for allowing us to download the predicted
  value of the Kp index every 15 minutes.
• The Research Council of Norway through the
  project named Norwegian and Russian Upper
  Atmosphere Co-operation On Svalbard part 2
  196173/S30 (NORUSCA2).
• The Nordic Council of Ministers Arctic
  cooperation program A10162.