Determinants of 2003 Ford Taurus Auction Prices

1
Determinants of 2003 Ford Taurus Auction Prices

• Presented by
• Brandon Briggs, Samantha Gardner, Brett Hanifin,
  Dane Louvier, Ali Irturk, Ryan Nabinger

2
Introduction

• What goes into the auction price of a car?

3
Data Set

• We examined the auction prices of 19,704 2003
  Ford Taurus.
• All data was from individual auction records from
  Aucnet.
• Mileage
• Trim package
• Location
• Sale type
• Sale month

4
Data Set

• Mileage Numerical Variable
• Trim Package Dummy Variables
• SE, LX, SES, SEL
• Location Dummy Variables
• West, Middle, East
• Sale Type Dummy Variables
• As is, Reposessions, Dealer, Fleet, Manufacturer
• Sale Month Dummy Variables
• Jan 06 Nov 06

5
Descriptive Statistics
  Price Mileage trimSE trimSES trimSEL trimLX
Mean 6,194 57,757 0.5903 0.3322 0.0486 0.0289
Standard Error 12 177 0.0035 0.0034 0.0015 0.0012
Median 6200 55135 1 0 0 0
Mode 6000 66270 1 0 0 0
Standard Deviation 1638 24775 0.4918 0.4710 0.2150 0.1675
Sample Variance 2684276 613799696 0.2419 0.2219 0.0462 0.0281
Kurtosis -0.2235 1.2503 -1.8652 -1.4924 15.6363 29.6527
Skewness -0.0787 0.7796 -0.3674 0.7126 4.1994 5.6258
Range 12700 209322 1 1 1 1
Minimum 1000 1185 0 0 0 0
Maximum 13700 210507 1 1 1 1
Sum 121996754 1137575658 11627 6543 957 569
Count 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696
6
Descriptive Statistics
  Asis Dealer Fleetlease Manuf Repo West Middle East
Mean 0.0008 0.2503 0.7335 0.0062 0.0091 0.1492 0.4128 0.4381
Standard Error 0.0002 0.0031 0.0032 0.0006 0.0007 0.0025 0.0035 0.0035
Median 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mode 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Standard Deviation 0.0285 0.4332 0.4421 0.0788 0.0952 0.3563 0.4923 0.4962
Sample Variance 0.0008 0.1876 0.1955 0.0062 0.0091 0.1269 0.2424 0.2462
Kurtosis 1226.3124 -0.6701 -0.8836 155.1761 104.4583 1.8800 -1.8746 -1.9378
Skewness 35.0455 1.1532 -1.0566 12.5364 10.3173 1.9697 0.3544 0.2497
Range 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Minimum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Maximum 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Sum 16 4929 14448 123 180 2938 8130 8628
Count 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696
7
Exploratory Data Analysis
8
Exploratory Data Analysis
9
Percentage of Total Sales by Month
10
Percentage of Total Sales by Location
11
Percentage of Total Sales by Sale Type
12
Percentage of Total Sales by Trim Type
13
Regression Analysis
14
Regression Results

• The F-statistic was 2393.282
• P-value for F-statistic was significant at 5
  level
• T-Statistics for manufacturers, repossessions,
  May, July, and August were not significant at the
  5 level

15
Regression Results

• Sale Type Lowest to Highest
• As is
• Manufacture (statistically insignificant)
• Fleet lease
• Reposessions (statistically insignificant)
• Dealer
• Sale Month
• Later months decrease price more than earlier
  months

16
Regression Results
17
Regression Results

• Mileage decreases auction price
• Trim type Lowest to Highest
• LX
• SE
• SES
• SEL
• Location Lowest to Highest
• West
• East
• Middle

18
Price as a Function of Mileage