WRF Standard Initialization

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The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Steve
Koch, NOAA/FSL
A facility where the NWP research and operational
communities interact to accelerate testing and
evaluation of new models and techniques for
research applications and operational
implementation, without interfering with current
operations
Unidata presentation 7 February 2005
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DTC Accomplishments since April 2003

• Strong working relationship between central DTC
  partners (FSL and NCAR), NCEP, and AFWA
• Completed the basic WRF Reference Code (including
  NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and
  NCAR Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic cores)
• Ported NCEP Post and Verification codes and the
  NMM to iJet (also transferred to NCAR, NCEP,
  AFWA computers) for use in the Test Plan work
• SI able to initialize NMM WRF (joint EMC/FSL
  effort)
• Visiting scientist program initiated in summer
  2004
• Completed WRF Test Plan WRF EM core implemented
  at EMC as part of Initial Operating Capability

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WRF Test Plan Getting to the NCEP IOC

• DTC demonstrated the capabilities of the
  candidate dynamical cores to qualify them for a
  6-member WRF IOC ensemble system to run daily in
  High Resolution Window (HRW) domains
• NCEP NMM NCAR ARW dynamical WRF cores
• NMM and ARW cores with switched physics
  packages
• Model variants using bred Initial / Boundary
  Conditions
• Ensemble should improve accuracy over a single
  deterministic forecast and a measure of
  uncertainty
• IOC implemented 21 Sept 2004, but with only 2
  members (the two dynamical cores without physics
  swapping). Full 6-member ensemble is scheduled
  for May 2005 implementation at NCEP.

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DTC Winter Forecast Experiment (DWFE) 15 January
- 31 March 2005
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DWFE Core Objectives
Two primary operational objectives

1. Compare Eta-12 to WRF run at 5 km grid spacing
   with explicit convection (no CP scheme) over
   CONUS during a winter season
2. Expose forecasters to future WRF capabilities
   before WR-NAM

Two primary research objectives

1. Do encouraging 4-km BAMEX WRF runs (summer 03,
   04) provide forecast value during winter and for
   longer lead times (48h) than in BAMEX?
2. Determine extent to which gravity waves,
   lake-effect snow, CAD, coastal fronts, etc. can
   be skillfully forecast

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DWFE WRF Model Domain
DWFE domain covers the Gulf of Mexico, Canadian
cold air source, Gulf Stream, and upstream
conditions
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DWFE WRF Model Configuration

• FSL and NCAR are running 2 different versions of
  WRF
• 2 different Dynamical Cores (NMM ARW)
• 2 different Physics Packages (NCEP NCAR)
• Explicit Convection (run without CP scheme)
• Uses 38 levels, 5-km resolution
• Initialized at 0000 UTC, forecasts out to 48
  hours
• Initial and boundary conditions from operational
  Eta
• 00 UTC Eta212 grids for both runs
• These grids have a resolution of 40 km

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WRF is a modeling system, not a model

• WRF is designed so that model configurations can
  be interchanged easily
• WRF makes it easy to
• create new model components
• share parameterizations
• efficiently transfer research findings to
  operations

NCEP mixed
KF CP
Kessler MP
NMM core
BMJ
Purdue-Lin
PBL, etc
Grell
EM core
Ferrier MP
Explicit
Etc
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DWFE WRF Model Physics Suites

• Run 1 ARW, NCAR Physics Suite
• NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
• WSM 5-class microphysics
• No cumulus parameterization
• Yong-Sei University (YSU) PBL
• Dudhia shortwave
• RRTM longwave
• Run 2 WRF-NMM, NCEP Physics Suite
• NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
• Ferrier microphysics (as in Eta)
• No cumulus parameterization
• Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 2.5 PBL (as in Eta)
• Eta (Lacis-Hansen shortwave)
• Eta (Fels-Schwartzkopf longwave)

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DWFE Dissemination of Model Products

• FX-Net and AWIPS (by 1400 UTC) offers diagnostic
  flexibility and ability to see full details

DTC web site (and to JOSS)
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An Operational Introduction to the Weather
Research Forecasting (WRF) Modeling System
Forecaster Preparation for the DWFE
5-km WRF BMJ
NWS-NCSU CSTAR VISITVIEW PRESENTATION
RFC 10-km analysis
5-km WRF explicit
Gary Lackmann, NCSU With contributions from
Michael Brennan, Stephen Jascourt, Steve
Koch, Jeff Waldstreicher, Kelly Mahoney, David
Novak, Wei Wang, WRF Tutorial Class others
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DWFE Verification Activities
On this page will be links to these verification
tools

• (1) Grid-to-Point precipitation tool produced
  using the FSL Real-Time Verification System
  (RTVS), this verification tool takes model
  forecast values and interpolates them to hourly
  HADS gauge locations. Statistics are provided
  for whatever models, forecast period, and overall
  time period one chooses.
• (2) VSDB web tool forecast values are compared
  with surface and upper-air rawinsonde
  observations that are gathered by NCEP for
  performing their next model analysis. Statistics
  will also be available for Grid-to-Grid
  precipitation.
• (3) Ebert-McBride Grid-to-Grid precipitation
  tool an entity-based approach, which decomposes
  the total forecast error into such components as
  displacement, volume, and pattern error of
  Contiguous Rain Areas. Technique was applied by
  FSL to verification of mesoscale convective
  systems in IHOP.

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RTVS precipitation verification of 6-h forecasts
over the entire DWFE domain10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
Eta-12
WRF-ARW
WRF-NMM
http//www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/stati
on/index.html
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RTVS precipitation verification of 24-h forecasts
over the entire DWFE domain10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
Eta-12
WRF-ARW
WRF-NMM
http//www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/stati
on/index.html
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DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System
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DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System
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Archival of DWFE Model Runs

• We are archiving the 3-hourly output files from
  both the ARW and NMM runs on the NCAR MSS at full
  model resolution on a daily basis for use in
  future research studies.
• We are archiving two types of output files for
  each model
• 1) wrfout files
• NETCDF format
• Raw model output on its native grid
• 2) post-processed files (meso.AWPDWFE)
• GRIB format
• Model fields run through NCEP post processor
• Post processor interpolates raw output to
  constant pressure surfaces and then to a common
  horizontal grid

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Examples of Phenomena Forecast by DWFE WRF Models
FSL is also making available on its FX-Net system
the ability to display the 8-10 km
High-Resolution Window (HRW) domain WRF model
runs from NCEP
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Lake Effect Snowbands17 January 2005
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WRF-ARW 18h Forecast Precipitation for 1800 UTC

• KBUF 1835Z Base Reflectivity

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• 1000-850 hPa Lapse Rates
• Forecast by NMM at 1200 UTC

WRF-NMM 18h Forecast Precipitation for 1800 UTC
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Narrow Reflectivity Bands23 January 2005
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ARW 3-h forecast Composite Reflectivity
Lake-effect snowbands
Lake-effect snowbands
Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband
Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband
0600 UTC Radar Mosaic
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Topographically forced Snowbands in Blizzard
of23 January 2005
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• Total Snow Accumulation

Hudson Valley
CT River Valley
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• WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F24

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• WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F27

988
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• WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F30

982
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• STMAS 5-km Surface Mesoanalysis for 0300 UTC

995
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CuriositiesPotential Vorticity Streamers
Downwind of Mountain Peaks2 February 2005
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• 700 hPa Vertical Vorticity
• from 12h WRF-NMM Forecast

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CuriositiesReflectivity Structures in Marine
Boundary Layer23 January 2005
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• Cloud Streets

Marine Stratus
Mesoscale Cellular Convection
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CuriositiesDiabatically-generated Mesovortex
over Lake Erie22 January 2005
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(No Transcript)
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ARW-5 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05
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Eta-12 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05
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Concluding Statements

• The DTC is producing a very large set of valuable
  and accessible high-resolution model data for
  numerical modeling and mesoscale process research
  studies.
• The DTC is creating a unique and powerful
  infrastructure for the research community to
  participate in the testing and evaluation of
  contributed model codes with the potential to
  lead to future operational improvements.