Title: The Evolution of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century
1The Evolution of Systems Thinking in the 20th
Century
Ao Univ. Prof. Dr. Günther Ossimitz University of
Klagenfurt, Austria
- 100th Birthday Anniversary of Ludwig von
Bertalanffy - Technical University of Vienna, 2. Nov. 2001
2My Habilitation work Development of Systems
Thinking
Main issues - How can students learn Systems
Thinking (ST)? - How can System Dynamics
modelling help to develop ST - How can ST
abilities be empirically measured?
- Ch 1 Approaches towards Systems Thinking in the
Literature - Ch 2 What is Systems Thinking? - a Definition
- Ch 3 Systems Thinking / System Dynamics in Math
Education - Ch 4 Empirical Studies about the Development of
Systems Thinking - Ch 5 The Study Development of Systems Thinking
3Some Systems Thinking Approaches
- Qualitative Approaches
- Frederic Vester (Biocybernetics)
- Systemic Management e.g. Peter Gomez/ Gilbert
Probst - Peter Senge The Fifth Discipline ST and
Organizational Learning - Cognitive Psychology - Dietrich Dörner The
Logic of Failure - System Dynamics-Approach (quantitative)
- Jay Forrester (MIT) introduces SD at about 1960
- Barry Richmond sells SD Software STELLA under
systems thinking
Each of these approaches is connected with
Education!
4Systems Thinking Approaches - Overview
5What is Systems Thinking?
- Literature ST is very fundamental and important
- e.g. George Klir Facets of Systems Science
(1991, p19) - "Systems movement emerged from three principal
roots mathematics, computer technology and a
host of ideas that are well captured by the
general term systems thinking." - This is the only appearance of the term "systems
thinking" in Klir's great book! - The same applies to a number of other important
works of systems literature. - Almost no serious definition of ST in systems
literature!
6My Definition of Systems Thinking
Four interelated dimensions
- Dynamical Dim. - Thinking in dynamical processes
beyond snapshot-thinking understanding stocks
vs. flows, delays, oscillations... - Model Dim. - Thinking in Models /Awareness of
Systems modeling assumptions, model-reality
qualitative vs. quantitative models - Feedback Dim. - Thinking in loops and networks
interrelated structures, indirect effects,
feedback loops, networks of interrelations - Pragmatical Dim. - Steering of Systems finding
the "leverage point", counterintuitive behavior,
proper intensity and timing of actions.
My Definition integrates different views of
Systems Thinking!
7Dynamical Thinking Discerning stocks and flows
Arrivals and Departures in a Hotel Dec 18 - Jan
10
Arr Dep
When was the number of Hotel guests a maximum?
Give your answer just by a quick glimpse at the
diagram without any tedious calculations!
Intersection Dec 27-Dec 28
Correct lt 20
8Thinking in Models Heroin Market 1
9Price Elasticity of Heroin
10 kg Heroin available 1000 ATS/kg 10 Mio S
Revenue
9 kg Heroin available 2000 ATS/kg 18 Mio S
Revenue !
10Thinking in Models Heroin Market 2
11Lessons from the Heroin Models
- Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) are useful tools!
- CLDs help to discuss a situation. Different
viewpoints can be clarified and checked more
easily. - The same situation can be modeled in different
ways. - CLDs allow a reflection of model assumptions.
- Small differences in a model might have serious
consequences. - What appears to be the solution at first sight,
might (via feedback) make the problem even more
severe!
12Feedback Thought The Arms Race(Peter Senge The
Fifth Discipline)
Armation A
A feels endagered
B feels endangered
Armation B
Escalating ("positive") feedback loop
13The result of the Arms Race
Total Amount of Armation in Arms race
Time (years)
14George Richardson Two threads of Feedback
Thought
George Richardson (1991) Feedback Thought in
Social Science and Systems Theory (p. 93)
- Servomechanisms Thread - Cybernetics Thread
15George Richardson's Message
- Feedback is a common fundamental idea in all
systems approaches - The feedback structure is often hidden in
peculiar notations - Explicit counsciousness of feedback in the 20th
century - Many roots of feedback thinking
- Biology-math. Models (Verhulst, Lotka, Volterra)
- Econometrics (Tinbergen, Samuelson, Hicks)
- Engineering (Watt, Maxwell, Lyapunov)
- Social Sciences (Hume, Smith, Ricardo, Hegel,
Marx, Bateson, Keynes, Lewin) - Biology-Homeostasis (Hippocrates, Cannon,
Rosenblueth) - Logic (Epimenides, Boole, Cantor, Russell,
Whitehead, Carnap, Goedel) - Two main Feedback Threads in the 20th Century
- Cybernetics Thread (Ludwig von Bertalanffy et al)
- Servomechanisms Thread
-
16The Cybernetics Thread
- Feedback was seen as an influence from output
back to input. - Feedback concept just for negative loops, no
escalating loops - Feedback is seen as homeostasis and control
- stability and instability of negative feedback
systems - Feedback analyses are usually verbal rather than
mathematical or pictorial - Feedback was associated with information
transmittion, communication networks, information
theory - background idea the ceration of intelligent
machines
17The Servomechanism Thread
- Formal dynamic feedback models employed
- Basic idea Behavior depends upon feedback
structure - Feedback loops are seen as intrinsic part of real
system - positive and negative loops were present
- counterintuitive behavior of systems
well-intented policies lead to disaster - Policy Analysis is an important aspect of
practical systems analysis
18Ludwig von Bertalanffy on Systems Thinking
- LvB did great work in integrating different
Systems approaches (Biology, Chemistry,
Psychology, Cybernetics, Social Sciences) into
a General Systems Theory (GST) - GST was basically founded with mathematical
concepts (differential equations, functions,
stability) - Feedback concept is only implicit in GST - lack
of feedback notation - Advances in Systems Thinking beyond GST are
possible with new tools for diagramming/sketching
feedback structures
Systems Thinking needs systemic means of
communcation (e.g. mind maps, CLDs,
stock-flow-diagrams)!
19My conclusions concerning Systems Thinking
- Systems thinking is like a tree many roots and
many branches - Feedback is a core concept of systems thinking.
Others are - thinking in processes, thinking in models,
steering systems - Systems thinking abilities are darely needed,
yet, hardly developed, even among higly educated
persons! - Systemic diagrams are crucial for systems
thinking / communication - Causal Loop Diagrams are easy to learn and very
flexible systems diagramming tools
Systems thinking should be a guiding idea for any
education at any age!
20How to contact me
- http//go.just.to/go Homepage G. Ossimitz
- http//go.just.to/pap Papers (incl. this lecture)
- http//go.just.to/sd System Dynamics / Systems
Thinking Mega Link List - alternativ www.ossimitz.at
- mail ossimitz_at_bigfoot.com
21Systems Thinking und System DynamicsDie
Sichtweisen von Forrester und Richmond
Richmond Systems Thinking is System Dynamics
with an Aura
22Richmond (1991) What is Systems Thinking?
Systems Thinking Activities ltgt systemische
Darstellungsformen
23Testaufgabe "Staatsverschuldung vs. Budgetdefizit"
In Fantasien nennt man den Betrag, um den die
Staatsausgaben in einem Jahr höher sind als die
Staatseinnahmen, "öffentliches Budgetdefizit". Im
Jahr 1998 betrug das öffentliche Budgetdefizit in
Fantasien 60 Mrd. Taler, Ein Jahr später lag es
bei 40 Mrd. Taler. Kreuzen Sie an, welche der
folgenden Aussagen richtig bzw. falsch bzw. nicht
beantwortbar sind!
Klgft 63
Im Jahr 1999 wurden 20 Mrd. Taler Schulden
zurückbezahlt
Der Finanzminister konnte die Staatsschulden von
1998 auf 1999 um ein Drittel senken
30
Wenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu
senken (ausgeglichen zu budgetieren), dann hat
Fantasien keine Schulden mehr.
62
42
Die Schulden sind sowohl 1998 als auch 1999
gewachsen.
Wenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu
senken, dann hat Fantasien seinen höchsten
Schuldenstand erreicht.
56
41
Ein geringeres Budgetdefizit bedeutet eine
geringere Staatsverschuldung.
Klagenfurt n104 (BWL) Graz n25 (USW) Wien n
25 (WU,TU, Uni)
Diese Performance hätte man auch durch Münzwurf
erreicht!
Graz µ0,76 Wien µ0,8
Graz µ0,32 Wien µ0,68
Graz µ0,64 Wien µ0,72
Graz µ0,44 Wien µ0,52
Graz µ0,16 Wien µ0,28
Graz µ0,4 Wien µ0,56
24Literatur
- Dietrich Dörner (1989) Die Logik des
Misslingens. Strategisches Denken in komplexen
Situationen. Reinbek Rowohlt - Gomez/Probst (1987) Vernetztes Denken im
Management. Die Orientierung 89. Bern
Schweizerische Volksbank - Günther Ossimitz (2000) Entwicklung
systemischen Denkens. München Profil - George Richardson (1991) Feedback thought.
Reading Pegasus Communications - Peter Senge (1990) Die fünfte Disziplin.
Stuttgart Klett-Cotta - John Sterman (2000) Business Dynamics. Systems
Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World.
Boston McGrawHill-Irwin - Frederic Vester (1999) Die Kunst, vernetzt zu
denken. Stuttgart DVA