Sky lantern

1
Risk Assessment Seminar 2nd December 2009
Session for Market Surveillance officials
Presentation and discussion of cases - Sky
lantern - Dirk van Aken NL Food and Consumer
Product Safety Authority
2
The product
The product

• Open balloon with burner
• Released on special occasions (weddings etc.)
• Sales in NL 700.000 per year

3
Approach in NL

• Research
• Risk of fire depends on properties of the product
  combined with the flight behaviour
• Flammability of the material
• Flight behaviour duration, climbing height,
  flying distance
• Advice by Office for Risk Assessment
• Meetings with importers

4
Scenarios (1)

• The balloon is released in wind conditions that
  make it unstable. Swinging motion causes fire. It
  falls on flammable dry material, e.g. grass or
  heathland in summer or close to houses. A fire
  occurs, with or without victims.
• The balloon is released in wind conditions that
  make it lose hot air. It lands with active burner
  on flammable dry material, e.g. grass or
  heathland in summer or close to houses. A fire
  occurs, with or without victims.

5
Scenarios (2)

• While igniting the burner, some burning material
  drips onto the hand or arm of the user. The user
  gets burn injuries.

6
Estimated probability factors (1)

• Using balloon at gt 2 Bft 0.8
• Balloon catching fire if used at gt 2 Bft
  0.001
• Balloon going down because of rocking at gt 2
  Bft 0.01
• Balloon setting fire to dry material 0.0110
  of land surface is dry nature in NL10 of year
  it is dry enough

7
Estimated probability factors (2)

• Balloon setting fire to house 0.015 of land
  surface is built in NL20 of balloons landing
  on house causes fire
• Fatality in house fire (NL fire
  statistics) 30/7,000

8
Risk Assessment Scenarios (1)
Risk Assessment Scenarios (1)
9
Risk Assessment Scenarios (2)
Risk Assessment Scenarios (2)
10
Risk Assessment Scenarios (3)
Risk Assessment Scenarios (3)
11
Conclusions
Conclusions

• Highest risk identified for sky lantern is
  medium risk
• Low probability matches experience
• Uncertainty about several factors
• Sensitivity analysis if probability increases by
  30, two more scenarios become medium

12
Discussion
Discussion

• Risk depending on location?
• Comparable with fireworks?
• Options to reduce risks
• forbid use/release of sky lanterns
• forbid sale
• strong warning to users