Spatial Decision Support and GIS

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Spatial Decision Support and GIS

• NCGIA Core Curriculum
• Unit 127 - Spatial Decision Support Systems
• by Jacek Malczewski, Department of Geography,
  University of Western Ontario, Canada

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Using GIS

• GIS and computers can synthesize data and perform
  analysis and modeling
• But PEOPLE make decisions!
• How can GIS be used as part of the
  decision-making process?
• Decisions can be top down (managers) or bottom-up
  (public participation)

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A US ideal Freedom of Speech
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Spatial Decision Problems

•  The main characteristics of spatial decision
  problems include
• Many alternatives,
• Consequences of the decision alternatives are
  spatially variable
• Each alternative is evaluated on the basis of
  multiple criteria,
• Some of the criteria are qualitative others
  quantitative
• More then one decision maker (or interest group)
  involved in  the decision-making process
• Decision makers have different preferences on
  evaluation criteria and decision consequences
• Decisions are often surrounded by uncertainty
• NIMBYism etc.

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Emergency Management Decision Support GIS For the
Tampa Bay Region
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Emergency Management

• Domestic preparedness
• Vulnerability Assesments
• Mitigation planning
• Training
• Incident management
• Recovery

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Storm Categories
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Cat 3 Hurricane
Storm Categories
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Plot Storm Track
Notify Now
Extreme Risk Property Owners
Input Wind Radii
Identify Parcels
Notify Owners
Assess Damage
Assess Future Growth Scenarios
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Assess Now
Risk Damage Assessment
Assessment Complete
Parcels Affected
Plot Storm Track
Extreme High Moderate
5299
Input Wind Radii
5343
Identify Parcels
7167
Notify Owners
Assess Damage
Building Loss Estimate
Assess Future Growth Scenarios
Extreme 100 Loss
1,964,336,700
High 75 Loss
1,830,798,900
Moderate 50 Loss
591,793,600
Future Growth Losses
Save Results and Exit? Yes No
Scenario 1
12,382,300
Yes
No
Scenario 2
7,564,900
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Historical Background

• Decision Support System (DSS) based on work by
  Herbert A. Simon in 1950s and 1960s (Simon 1960)
  
• DSS evolved  during the 1970s and 80s
• SDSS concept has evolved in parallel
• IBM's Geodata Analysis and Display System 1970s
  earliest large DSS
• SDSS has been associated with the need to expand
  the GIS capabilities for complex, ill-defined,
  spatial decision problems
• Major growth in research, development, and
  applications of SDSS in the last 10 years
• Many threads with different, but related names,
  such as collaborative SDSS, group SDSS,
  environmental DSS, spatial knowledge based and
  expert systems, PPGIS

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The Decision-making Process

• Simon divides any decision-making process into
  the phases of decision-making
• intelligence - is there a problem or an
  opportunity for change?
• design - what are the decision alternatives?
• choice -  which alternative is best?

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Simons Model
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Planning Stages

• Problems
• Goals
• Objectives
• Alternatives
• Evaluations
• Choice
• Implementation
• Monitoring

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Planning Methods

• SWOT
• Bargaining
• Brainstorming
• DELPHI
• Scenario writing
• Consensus building
• Public meeting support
• Charrette
• Consultants
• Stakeholder involvement
• Outreach

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Example CommunityViz
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GIS and Decision Support

• GISystems have limited capabilities to support
  the design and choice phases of the
  decision-making process
• GIS provides a static modeling environment ,
  reducing their scope as decision support tools
• Especially so in the context of problems
  involving collaborative decision-making

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What is SDSS?

• SDSS is  an interactive, computer-based system
  designed to support a user or group of users in
  achieving a higher effectiveness of decision
  making while solving a semi-structured spatial
  decision problem
• The three terms (semi-structured spatial
  problems, effectiveness, and decision support)
  capture the essence of the SDSS concept

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Components of SDSS

• Data Base Management System contains the
  functions to manage the geographic data base
• Model Base Management System contains the
  functions to manage the model base
• Dialog Generation and Management System manages
  the interface  between the user and the rest of
  the system.

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DSS Tools

• Procedural programming languages and code
  libraries (e.g., VB, AML, Avenue, TransCAD -
  Caliper Script macro language, MapInfo -
  MapBasic)
• Visual progamming language (e.g. STELLA, Cantata
  and Khoros)
• Inter-application communication software (e.g.
  dynamic data exchange (DDE), object linking
  (OLE), open database connectivity (ODBC))
• Simulation languages and software (e.g. SIMULINK,
  SIMULA)
• Application programming interfaces (API) (e.g.
  the IBM's geoManager API, Java Advanced Imaging
  API, TransCAD's API)
• Applets  (e.g. GISApplet,  Microsoft Visual J),
  
• Visual interfaces, graphics and color subroutines
  (e.g. graphical user interfaces GUI, OpenGL,
  SVG, etc.)

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DSS Generator

• Package of related hardware and software which
  provides a set of capabilities to quickly and
  easily build a specific SDSS
• GISystems (e.g. ARC/INFO, ArcView, ARCNetwork,
  Spatial Analyst, MapObjects LT, GRASS, IDRISI,
  MapInfo, TransCAD)
• Database packages  (e.g. dBase, Access, Paradox)
  
• Decision analysis and optimization software (e.g.
  LINDO, EXPERT CHOICE, LOGICAL DECISION)
• Statistical and geostatistical software (e.g.
  S-PLUS, SPSS, SAS)
• Simulation (e.g. Spatial Modeling Environment)

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Specific DSS

• Systems devoted to the analysis of a particular
  set of decision problems
• Support decision makers in tackling
  semi-structured problems
• Active Response Geographic Information System
• IDRISI Decision Support
• GeoMed
• Spatial Group Choice
• winRGIS Spatial Decision Support
• CommunityVis

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Example Nuclear power
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Since December, 1942 130 sites

Source www.prop1.org/ 2000/noflymap.htm
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77,000 tons of highly toxic wastethat will be
radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years
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Where is it now? Wet and dry
Source www.aecl.ca
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50 years of decision-making

• 1957 NRC report recommended burying the waste in
  a permanent repository
• Need a safe site for 77,000 tons of highly
  radioactive waste
• Safe means stable for at least 10,000 years as
  measured by radionuclides in surface and ground
  water downstream
• Need a stable place, free from hazards
• Storage-movement-disposal issues
• No solution in spite of 1982 act (DOE by 1998).
• Single site eventually chosen

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Yucca Mountain, NV
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Problem 1 The journey to Yucca Mt.
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Problem 2 Burial
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Yucca Mountain Waste Repository

• What is the radionuclide travel time from the
  repository to the water table?
• Question addressed through modeling
• Conceptual model selection
• Calibration
• Predictions

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UZ Travel Time Predictions 1995-2003

• Effective Continuum
• Fractures and matrix assumed to be in pressure
  equilibrium
• Calibration yielded water perc. rates of 0.01 to
  0.1 mm/y, dry fractures
• Travel times to water table of about 350,000 years

• Dual Permeability
• Fractures can flow even when matrix is
  unsaturated
• Calibration could be attained with more
  reasonable perc. rates of 5 mm/y
• Travel times to water table of 10s to 100s of
  years possible!

Conceptual model uncertainty is critical to
assessment of overall system uncertainty
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Cl-36 Observations Confirm Rapid Transport
Pathways
Atmospheric fallout from nuclear weapons testing
(1950s and 1960s) is present in fluid 200-300 m
below ground surface. Fault zones appear to be
the pathway.
Source Fabryka-Martin et al., 1997, YMP
Milestone SP2224M3
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The Yucca Mountain Decision Model Framework
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Many unknowns

• Will there be new faults and fractures in the
  next 100,000 years?
• Will the local tectonics remain inactive?
• Who will be there to notice in 12,005AD?
• What language do you write the warning notice in?
• etc

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Current YMP Total System Model Overview
Can such a model be understood by anyone
besides the developer?
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Problem N Controversy
DOE Admits Yucca Mt. Safety Information May Have
Been Lied AboutMarch 17, 2005, 0425 PM   It's
being called a devastating blow to the Yucca
Mountain Project -- some of the government's
scientific data may have been faked. Workers on
the proposed nuclear waste dump are under
investigation for lying about their research --
meaning the "sound science" President Bush said
he was following might be wrong
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New Initiative

• SDS Knowledge Portal V1.1
• Support from ESRI-U. Redlands
• www.institute.redlands.edu/sds

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Summary

• SDSS has been defined as an interactive,
  computer-based system designed to support a user
  or group of users in achieving a higher
  effectiveness of decision making while solving a
  semi-structured spatial decision problem
• The SDSS concept is based on the DDM (dialog,
  data, model) paradigm a well-design SDSS should
  have balance among the three capabilities.
• There are three sets of technologies for building
  an SDSS the DSS development tools, the DSS
  generators, and specific SDSS
• The DSS tools facilite the development of
  specific SDSS or they can be configured into a
  DSS generator which in turn can be used to build
  a variety of specific SDSS.