Courtland Robinson, Ph.D.

1
Health, Migration and the Future of North Korea

• Courtland Robinson, Ph.D.
• Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School
• of Public Health
• Center for Refugee and Disaster Response
• USIP
• October 19, 2010

2
Outline of Talk

• Future scenarios for North Korea
• History and patterns of migration from North
  Korea
• How might migration shape/be shaped by evolving
  scenarios?

3
Future Scenarios for North Korea

• Three themes (many variations)
• Collapse (hard or soft, near-term or longer-term)
• Gradual reform (evolving toward Chinese models,
  SK models, other)
• Status quo (or muddling through)

4
Brief History of Migration from North Korea

• Migration between North Korea and China
  relatively limited in the 1950s 1980s
• Famine in North Korea (peaking in 1996-97)
  followed by continued March through Hardship
  spurred migration across the border
• Seeking food, shelter, relief aid
• Seeking employment, income
• Some seeking migration to South Korea
• Some seeking to stay in China
• Peak of the arrivals from North Korea in 1998
  (migration is a lagging indicator for famine and
  food insecurity) declining overall numbers but
  dynamic patterns since

5
Northeast China (including Yanbian Korean
Autonomous Prefecture)
6
North Koreans Hiding in China
7
The Problem (and Politics) of Numbers

• As noted by a 2007 report from the Congressional
  Research Service
• There is little reliable information on the
  size and composition of the North Korean
  population located in China. Estimates range
  from as low as 10,000 (the official Chinese
  estimate) to 300,000 or more. Press reports
  commonly cite a figure of 100,000 to 300,000. In
  2006, the State Department estimated the numbers
  to be between 30,000 and 50,000, down from the
  75,000 to 125,000 range it projected in 2000.
  UNHCR also uses the 2006 range (30,000 to 50,000)
  as a working figure. UNHCR has not been given
  access to conduct a systematic survey.
  Estimating the numbers is made more difficult
  because most North Koreans are in hiding, some
  move back and forth across the bordereither
  voluntarily to bring food and/or hard currency
  from China or North Koreaor because they are
  forcibly repatriatedClearly, the refugees need
  to avoid detection, coupled with a lack of access
  by international organizations, make it difficult
  to assess the full scope of the refugee problem.

8
NK Population in China Study Design

• To obtain information about the population of not
  only North Koreans but children born to North
  Korean women in China, we conducted
  semi-structured interviews with 3 key informants
  from each of 36 geographically randomized sites
  selected in each of the three study provinces
  (108 sites in all). Each of these sites was
  visited by a trained team of two local
  interviewers to identify key informants who were
  willing to provide information about North Korean
  populations living in the site.

9
Population Component

• Population Component. Participants included a
  total of 324 adults who were believed to know
  about the presence or absence of North Koreans in
  their communities. These included local church
  members, community leaders, business contacts,
  resident North Koreans, and trusted local
  officials. Questions from the population
  component of the semi-structured interview
  included the following
• Total population of North Koreans in 1998, 2002
  and 2009
• Estimated proportion male and female of NK adults
  in 1998, 2002 and 2009
• Estimated number of children born to North Korean
  mothers in China in 1998, 2002, and 2009
• Estimated proportion of NK women married to
  Chinese men
• Estimated proportion male and female children
  born to NK women in China

10
Estimated North Korean Population in NE China
Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 10. Estimates of North Korean Populations in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009
        1998 1998 1998 2002 2002 2002 2009 2009 2009
        Low Range NK Total Population Mid Range NK Total Population High Range NK Total Population Low Range NK Total Population Mid Range NK Total Population High Range NK Total Population Low Range NK Total Population Mid Range NK Total Population High Range NK Total Population
Heilonjiang Province Heilonjiang Province Heilonjiang Province Heilonjiang Province 11,874 20,615 31,232 18,247 29,670 42,517 2,912 4,607 7,086
Jilin Province Jilin Province Jilin Province Jilin Province 1,528 2,464 3,482 1,118 2,192 3,205 67 367 774
Liaoning Province Liaoning Province Liaoning Province Liaoning Province 3,259 10,685 20,526 3,448 9,420 16,278 326 714 1,249
Sub-Total Three Provinces Sub-Total Three Provinces Sub-Total Three Provinces Sub-Total Three Provinces 16,661 33,764 55,240 22,813 41,282 62,000 3,305 5,688 9,109
Yanbian Yanbian Yanbian Yanbian 15,698 38,571 74,273 13,543 24,286 40,644 (267) (1,136) (2,501)
Total Northeast China Total Northeast China Total Northeast China Total Northeast China 32,359 72,335 129,513 36,356 65,568 102,644 3,572 6,824 11,610
Adjusted Northeast China Adjusted Northeast China Adjusted Northeast China Adjusted Northeast China 35,000 75,000 125,000 35,000 65,000 95,000 5,000 10,000 15,000
Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range2,700 Mid-Range4,400 High-Range6,000
(Chart not to be reproduced without permission)
11
Estimated Children Born to NK Women in NE China

Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009 Table 11. Estimates of Children Born to North Korean Women in Northeast China 1998, 2002, and 2009
        1998 1998 1998 2002 2002 2002 2009 2009 2009
        Low Range China-Born Children Mid Range China-Born Children High Range China-Born Children Low Range China-Born Children Mid Range China-Born Children High Range China-Born Children Low Range China-Born Children Mid Range China-Born Children High Range China-Born Children
Heilonjiang Province Heilonjiang Province Heilonjiang Province Heilonjiang Province 956 2,259 3,913 1,434 3,286 5,639 2,332 3,714 5,500
Jilin Province Jilin Province Jilin Province Jilin Province 327 679 1,014 1,051 2,086 3,071 650 1,544 2,415
Liaoning Province Liaoning Province Liaoning Province Liaoning Province 353 1,120 2116 135 867 1,897 624 1,655 3,148
Sub-Total Three Provinces Sub-Total Three Provinces Sub-Total Three Provinces Sub-Total Three Provinces 1,636 4,058 7,043 2,620 6,239 10,607 3,606 6,913 11,063
Yanbian Yanbian Yanbian Yanbian 1,719 4,224 8,133 1,501 2,691 4,503 (215) (916) (2,016)
Total Northeast China Total Northeast China Total Northeast China Total Northeast China 3,355 8,282 15,176 4,102 8,930 15,110 3,820 7,829 13,079
Adjusted Northeast China Adjusted Northeast China Adjusted Northeast China Adjusted Northeast China 4,000 8,000 12,000 4,500 9,000 13,500 5,200 10,500 15,800
Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800 Note Yanbian estimates for 2009 were adjusted upward to account for an underestimation in the 2007 study. The adjusted figures used for the Adjusted Northeast China totals are for Yanbian Low-Range1,600 Mid-Range3,500 High-Range4,800
(Chart not to be reproduced without permission)
12
Key Findings

• NK Population Decline Decline from 1998 (peak)
  to 2009 is 7-fold to 10-fold
• Tighter border security
• Onward movement to South Korea and other
  countries (those who cross with intent to migrate
  internationally do not stay in China long)
• Greater awareness of what is, and is not,
  available in China

13
Key Findings

• Population Shift Main population numbers may
  have shifted from Yanbian (where more than 50 of
  population lived in 1998) to other parts of NE
  China, particularly Heilongjiang
• More than 400,000 Korean-Chinese in Heilongjiang
  (largest number outside of Yanbian)
• Directly north of Yanbian, with major rail and
  road links
• Rich in natural resources but remote and sparsely
  populated considerable independence from central
  administration

14
Key Findings

• Increase in Proportion Female In NE China, of
  NK adult females rose from 50 in 1998, to 54 in
  2002, to more than 77 in 2009 (closely tracks
  our 2007 study of Yanbian)

15
Key Findings

• Increase in China-born Children The number of
  children born to NK women in China rose from
  approximately 8,000 in 1998, to 9,000 in 2002, to
  10,500 in 2009
• There are now more children born to NK women than
  total NK population in China. Given the
  migration patterns of women, this suggests that
  many children are living w/o their mothers (of 20
  children we interviewed, only five were living
  with their mothers
• Respondents also noted a high sex ratio of 133.6
  males per 100 females (China total is around 109,
  already high)

16

17
Implications for the Future

• The problem of absence does not mean the absence
  of problem

18
Implications for the Future

• Programs (and research) must have broader
  geographic, conceptual reach
• This is not simply a refugee problem it has
  evolved to include trafficked women, stateless
  children, and different dimensions of
  vulnerability, including people migrating in
  poorer states of health (TB, MDRTB, etc)

19
Implications for the Future

• Time to begin constructing and enhancing safe (or
  safer) alternatives to current, mainly high-risk,
  modes of migration.
• Need to broaden the framework to encourage all
  stakeholder countries to consider a more complex
  range of migration options

20
Implications for the Future

• Range of migration options
• China naturalize the more than 10,000 children
  born to North Korean mothers in China
• North Korea permit households with motives for
  family reunification, labor, or simply survival
  to leave without penalty in a safe and orderly
  manner
• South Korea continue to resettle NK
  talpukja/saetomin and broader migration
  opportunities for Chinese family members of
  mixed-nationality children
• US broaden scope of support for NK refugees and
  migrants to include support for other vulnerable
  populationsvictims of trafficking, stateless
  children, other at-risk groups

21
Implications for the Future

• There is a need to enhance our picture of the
  migration from North Korea, beginning with the
  war and coming up to the present day,
  encompassing the full range of migration
  patterns internal mobility, the evolving
  migration into and within China, regional
  migration dynamics, and the settlement and
  integration of North Koreans in South Korea.
  Enhancing bilateral and multilateral dialogue on
  these issues, as well supporting the full
  engagement of civil society, may be a
  confidence-building measure in itself and promote
  the idea that migration need not be an issue that
  divides countries but one that may, quite
  literally, bring them together. (Robinson,
  North Korea Migration Patterns and Prospects,
  CSIS/The Korea Project, 2010)