Migration

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Migration

• OTA TEAM

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Migration Schedule
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Migration Content

• Introduction
• Migration Theories
• Basic facts about migration within the European
  Union

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Migration - Introduction

• The population in most European countries is
  aging
• Main Reason Sharp decline in the fertility rate
• Another Reason Increase in life expectancy
• The aging process goes together with a reduction
  in the population
• Example Germany would need each year 400.000
  immigrants to compensate for the reduction
• Birg, H. (2005)

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Migration - Introduction
Source Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 61
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Migration - Introduction
Source Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 62
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Migration - Introduction
Source http//www.sicherheit-heute.de/index.php?c
ccpageMigrationset_z_artikel184
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Migration - Introduction

• But is it necessary to compensate for the
  reduction?
• Economic perspective
• In Germany 4 million people are jobless
• So does the economy need immigrants?
• It depends if immigrants are
• Perfect Subsitutes
• or
• Perfect Complements
• in terms of input factor labour

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Migration - Introduction

• Focus Individual Perspective
• Migration comes from Latin Migrare Move
• Why do people move?
• (blue)
• Why do people stay?
• (pink)
• Brainstorming

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Migration Introduction Classification
Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 7f.
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Migration - Introduction

• Examples of voluntary migration
• Job market-induced migration
• (immigrant, seasonal or work contract
  employees)
• Education-based migration
• Migration due to family reunion
• Examples of obligatory migration
• Natural disasters
• (drought, flooding, tsunami, famine, technical
  disasters...)
• Human acts
• (civil war, persecution, slavery...)

Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 8
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Migration - Introduction
Source Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004),
S. 20
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Theories of Migration

• Economic migration models
• 1 . Human capital model
• 2. Model with perfect competition
• 3. Gravitation model
• 4. Push-Pull model
• Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.

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Theories of migration

• Human capital model
• (Intertemporal investment calculation)
• Migration understood as an investment in human
  capital
• (based on ideas of Sjaastad 1962)
• Following factors affect the migration decision
• Qualification/Education
• (enriching capacity and possibility to get a good
  job)
• Age
• (younger people have a higher pay-back period)
• Risk preferences
• Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 27

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Theories of Migration

• Migration of highly-qualified people - positive
  selection
• Migration of low-qualified - negative selection

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Theories of Migration

• Model with perfect competition
• Micro economic viewpoint
• Based on ideas by Berry and Soligo (1969) as well
  as Chiswick (1982)
• Assumption Maximizing utilities with respect to
  the budget restriction which depends on wage
  level
• Migration from a low-wage to a high-wage country
  as long as equilibrium is reached (same wage in
  both countries)
• Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 31

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Theories of Migration
Model with perfect competition
1. Wage(B) gt Wage (A)
3. Wage(B) Wage (A)
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Theories of Migration

• Remarks
• Wage differentials alone are not able to explain
  migration,
• otherwise migration would be higher.
• Limited model in particular due to the
  assumptions
• Rational behavior (i.e. Perfect information about
  jobs and remuneration )
• Homogeneous work (same marginal productivity
  same technology in both countries)
• Full employment
• No uncertainty
• No migration costs
• No migration barriers (e.g. work permits,
  recognition of qualifications, cultural and
  linguistic barriers)

Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.
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Theories of Migration

• Variation of assumptions
• Based on Harris/Todaro (1970)
• Target Explain rural-urban migration
• Probability to find a new job in the target
  area ? expected wage level
• Migration costs
• No homogeneity of workers
• i.e. domestic and immigrant workers are not
  perfect substitutes
• Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p.25f.

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Theories of Migration

• Gravitation Model
• Based on ideas of Ravenstein (1885)
• Model follows the law of gravity (1666) of I.
  Newton
• i.e. gravitation strength depends on mass and
  distance
• Size of the population in the origin and target
  region
• and distance!
• Networks play an important role ("friends and
  relatives effect")
• Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 29

de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton
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Theories of Migration

• Push-Pull model
• Based on ideas of Lee 1966
• Starting point the gravitation model
• Four factors
• Factors regarding the origin area (Push)
• Factors regarding the target area (Pull)
• Examples from Lee Climate and educational system
  
• Intermediate obstacles (distance, immigration
  laws)
• Distance my be subjective or objective
• 4. Individual factors (age, family status,
  network, qualification)
• Only in theory do people have perfect
  information.
• In reality the individual perception is more
  important.
• Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31

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Theories of Migration

• Economic and political mismatches
• Rising economy stagnating economy
• Functioning job markets - unemployment
• Higher wage level - lower wage level
• Democratic system - ethnic or religious
  oppression
• High - low level of the social insurance systems
• High low development of the infrastructure
• High low quality of the environment
• Another important pull-factor
• Cultural affinity (language, history, cultural
  development...)

Source Münz et al Zuwanderung nach
Deutschland München 1997 p.15 and Pflugbeil,
S.D. (2005), p. 31
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Theories of Migration
Source www.chkorte.de/ mexiko/pushpull.gif
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Theories of Migration

• So why don't many move?
• Migration/transaction costs, such as
• moving expenses,
• information costs,
• costs of learning a new language
• Home location-specific, not-transferable
  knowledge (sunk costs), such as
• standards
• values
• manners
• local authorities
• informal channels
• consumer and leisure facilities
• income possibilities

Source Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 3
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Migration within the EU

• Future prospects
• The economic and social differences within the
  European Union will decrease
• ? Migration flows within the European Union
  states shrink

Source Münz et al Zuwanderung nach Deutschland
München 1997 S.15
Crucial factor for European migration today
Existing legislation and migration policy
decisions
Source Münz et al Zuwanderung nach Deutschland
München 1997 S.20
Within the EU, people have the basic right of
free movement of labour Source Pflugbeil, S.D.
(2005), S. 2 However ....
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Migration within the EU

• Transitional arrangements set out in the
  Accession Treaty
• Limited free movement during a transitional
  period in the extended European Union for a
  maximum duration of 7 years
• (exception Malta and Cyprus)
• Transitional period "2 plus 3 plus 2" (phase 1
  ends on 30 April 2006)
• Sweden, Ireland and UK of the European Union 15
  do not take part
• Before the end of phases 12 the Commission has
  to write a report
• The member states (EU 15) themselves have to
  notify their intentions for the next phase to the
  Commission in advance

Source Communication from the Commission to the
Council, the European Parliament, the European
Economic and Social Committee and the Committee
of the Regions, 08.02.2006
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Migration within the EU

• Some results of the report
• There seems to be no link between transitional
  arrangements and extent of migration
• Flow of workers has been rather small
• And too small to affect the European Union job
  market as a whole
• (Before and after the extension the share of the
  EU10 citizens of the resident population of each
  individual EU15 member state remains relatively
  stable)
• There is no indication that domestic labor is
  being substituted by the limited inflow of
  workers from the EU10
• Migration after the extension has had a positive
  effect on the national economies of the
  EU15-member states

Source Communication from the Commission to the
Council, the European Parliament, the European
Economic and Social Committee and the Committee
of the Regions, 08.02.2006
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Outlook
Approximately 75 of all Turks in Western Europe
live in Germany What will the future of Turkish
migration be like?
Quelle Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004),
S. 25
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References

• Birg, H. (2005) Die ausgefallene Generation
  Was die Demographie über unsere Zukunft sagt
• Communication from the commission to the council,
  the parliament, the european economic and social
  committee and the committee of the regions
  (2006) Report on the Functioning of the
  Transitional Arrangements set out in the 2003
  Accession Treaty (period 1 May 2004-30 April
  2006)
• Goldberg, A., Halm, D., Sen, F. (2004) Die
  deutschen Türken
• Global Commission on International Migration
  (Hrsg.), (2006), Migration in einer
  interdependenten Welt Neue Handlungsprinzipien
  Bericht der Weltkommission für internationale
  Migration
• Münz, R., Seifert, W., Ulrich, R. (1997)
  Zuwanderung nach Deutschland Strukturen,
  Wirkungen, Perspektiven
• Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005) Auswirkungen der
  internationalen Migration auf die Bundesrepublik
  Deutschland Theoretische und empirische
  Analysen vor dem Hintergrund der
  EU-Osterweiterung
• Sachverständigenrat für Zuwanderung und
  Integration im Auftragder Bundesregierung in
  Zusammenarbeit mit dem europäischen forum für
  Migrationsstudien (efms) an der Universität
  Bamberg (2004) Migrationsbericht

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Organizational Details

• Group 1 France
• Group 2 Spain and Turkey
• Group 3 Press and Czech
• Group 4 UK