Vehicle Technologies for More

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Vehicle Technologies for More Sustainable
Transportation
John B. Heywood Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical
Engineering Director, Sloan Automotive
Laboratory M.I.T. An IVA Seminar on Sustainable
Vehicles in Honour of His Majesty King Carl XVI
Gustafs 60th Birthday Stockholm, October 4, 2006
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WBCSD Sustainability Report Mobility 2030

• Seven major transportation challenges
• Transportation-related air pollutants and health
• Transportation GHG emissions and sustainability
• Reduce vehicle-related deaths and injuries
• Reduce transport-related noise
• Mitigate congestion
• Provide better mobility for the developing world
• Preserve and enhance mobility opportunities for
  all

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Projected total stock of light-duty vehicles by
region
Source Mobility 2030, World Business Council
for Sustainable Development Sustainability
Project, 2004
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Gigatonnes CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions/Year
Source Mobility 2030, World Business Council
for Sustainable Development Sustainability
Project, 2004
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We Like our Transportation Systems
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Current U.S. Transportation Energy Situation

1. Transportation in U.S. consumes about 30 of our
   primary energy use.
2. Personal transportation uses 60 of this energy,
   aircraft 10, freight about 30.
3. Scale is vast (U.S. light-duty vehicles use 550
   billion liters gasoline per year) growth rates
   are substantial.
4. Dominated by internal combustion engines (land)
   and gas turbines (air), and petroleum-based
   fuels.
5. Growing concerns over national security,
   economic, and greenhouse gas/climate change,
   issues.

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Vehicle Technology and Fuels Last 25 Years

1. Steady improvements in gasoline engine
   performance, efficiency, weight about 1 per
   year.
2. Development of efficient, high-performing,
   high-speed diesel engines in cars in Europe
3. Diesel engine emissions (trucks and cars) have
   been reduced but are still too high.
4. Cheap fuel in U.S. has discouraged diesel growth
   in cars and light trucks.
5. Engine and transmission improvements (some 30)
   used to improve performance, increase size (and
   weight) fleet fuel consumption remained
   constant.

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Modern High Performance Gasoline Engine
General Motors Ecotech 2-liter, turbocharged,
direct-injection, gasoline engine (photo NY
Times Magazine).
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Examples of Future Engine Improvements

• Reduced engine friction 2. Controlled
  autoignition
• combustion

http//media.popularmechanics.com/images/HCCI_2534
5701.jpg
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Important Technology Paths Forward

• Evolutionary Improvements
• More efficient engines Gasoline, diesel, hybrid
• More efficient transmissions
• Reductions in vehicle weight, drag, accessories
• Alternative Fuels
• Fuels from oil sands, heavy oil, GTL, oil shale,
  coal
• Large-scale production of biofuels
• More Radical Transitions
• New vehicle concepts much lighter, smaller

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Fuel Consumption Comparison Current 2.5-Liter
Camry and Future Equivalent Models
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Summary of Vehicle Technology Options

1. Mainstream gasoline engines, transmissions,
   vehicles can be steadily improved over time to
   give a 35 fuel consumption reduction in new
   vehicles in about 20 years, at an extra cost per
   vehicle of 500-1000, at constant performance and
   size.
2. Hybrids can improve on this by 20-30 percent, at
   an additional cost of a few thousand dollars.
3. Prospects for the diesel in the U.S., attractive
   from a fuel consumption and CO2 perspective, are
   uncertain due to the extremely stringent U.S. NOx
   and particulate standards, low U.S. fuel costs,
   and higher initial cost.

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Technology Options Summary (Continued) -

• Fuel cell propulsion systems would result in more
  efficient vehicles than ICE-based
  technology. BUT the energy lost and CO2
  emissions released in the near term by
  producing hydrogen are significant and result in
  no significant overall benefit.
• Another option is advanced battery electric
  vehicles using electricity (maybe as a plug-in
  hybrid).
• If we need a very low CO2 emission transportation
  system in the longer term ( 50 years), then fuel
  cells and hydrogen and advanced batteries and
  electricity, combined with light-weight vehicles
  are potential low CO2 options.

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Vehicle Weight-Fuel Consumption Relationship
Data source Wards Automotive
Fuel economy (mpg)
Fuel consumption (L/100km)
Curb weight (kg)
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U.S. Fleet Fuel Savings Potential Weight
Reduction
Reduction in vehicle weight between 2006-2025 Reduction in vehicle weight between 2006-2025 Reduction in vehicle weight between 2006-2025 Fleet fuel use savings in year 2025 Fleet fuel use savings in year 2025
Kilograms per year Total Billion liters Total
110 0.3 6 15 2
210 0.6 11 38 5
370 1.0 20 75 10
Every 10 of weight shed by 2025 will reduce
fleet fuel use in 2025 by approximately 5.
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Vehicle Performance How High?

• Acceleration times 0 - 60 miles/hr (0 - 100
  km/hr)
• Toyota Camry 1998 (4 cyl) 11 sec
• 2005 (4 cyl) 9.2 sec
• 2005 (6 cyl) 7.8 sec
• 2030 (4 cyl) 6.4 sec
• Vehicle fuel consumption penalty is significant.
• More aggressive driving results (safety, fuel
  consumption issues).
• Competitive marketplace feeds auto company
  performance competition.

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Necessary Steps for New Technology Impact

1. Technology must become market competitive in
   overall vehicle performance, convenience, and
   cost
2. Then technology must penetrate across new
   vehicle production to significant (more than
   one-third) level
3. Then need substantial in-use fleet penetration
   more than one-third mileage driven

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Time Scales for Significant U.S. Fleet Impact
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Achieving a 5 Reduction in U.S. Fleet Fuel and
GHG
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Market Share of Advanced Vehicle and Fuel
Technologies to achieve a 5 Reduction in U.S.
Fuel Use and Carbon Emissions
Vehicle Powertrain Improvements Market Share in 2025 ()
Advanced Gasoline Engines 78
Diesels 36
Gasoline/Battery Hybrids 25
Alternative Fuel Use Billion Liters of Additional Ethanol
Ethanol (5 Petroleum Reduction) 51
Ethanol from Corn (5 Carbon Emissions Displacement) 297
Cellulosic Ethanol (5 Carbon Emissions Displacement) 67
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U.S. Light-Duty Fleet Gasoline Consumption
Projections
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Summary of Options and Issues

1. Improved engine and light-duty vehicle technology
   could reduce vehicle fuel consumption (and GHG)
   by one-third in 20 years.
2. A critical issue is what fraction of technology
   potential goes into fuel consumption reduction,
   improving performance, increasing vehicle size.
3. IC engine/battery hybrids could provide an
   additional 20 - 30 improvement, at an additional
   cost of a few thousand dollars.
4. Diesel benefits and costs fall between gasoline
   engines and gasoline electric hybrids.

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Summary of Options and Issues - Continued

• 5. Market demand and auto company competition
  drive ever-escalating vehicle performance which
  significantly impacts fuel consumption gains.
• 6. The biggest reductions in fleet fuel
  consumption over the next 25 years are likely to
  come from steadily improving high volume
  production engine and vehicle technology.
• 7. Substantive reductions in vehicle fuel
  consumption will require technology improvements
  and changes in consumer behavior fiscal and
  regulatory measures will be needed.

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