Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

1
The Challenges facing the UK in Energy Energy
Security Climate Change Affordability What we
can do to reduce impact of rising energy prices
Eaton Village 6th October 2012
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey (???) Reader Emeritus in
Environmental Sciences, UEA Rotary District 1080
Environment Officer
2
We are all concerned about the Price of Energy.

• Why are prices so much more variable than in the
  past?
• Is it true that renewable energy support is the
  cause of these price rises?
• How are our bills made up?
• What are the omens for the future?
• What can we do? general points
• What is the best strategy for your own household?

3
Energy Security is also a potentially critical
issue for the UK
Less than 50 now provided by UK sources. Much
now supplied by LNG from Qatar which has to pass
through Straights of Hormuz. Price paid is in
competition with other countries especially
China
Gas Production and Demand in UK
Prices have become much more volatile since UK is
no longer self sufficient in gas.
Langeled Line to Norway
Oil reaches 130 a barrel
Average wholesale price in 2012
4.5 p / kWh max 10.9 p/kWh min 2.8
p/kWh
4
What about energy Prices how have they changed?
In recent years, electricity retail prices have
varied much less than wholesale prices and have
also risen less.
In Real Terms, Domestic Electricity Prices have
only recently returned to 1981 levels
5
What are causes of rise in recent years? (1)

• Since 2004 Electricity Bills for the average
  household have risen from 230 to around 440
  at end of last year a rise of 90
• Support for renewables in 2011 was 1285
  million pounds.
• But overall 325 billion kWh was generated
• So increase in wholesale price as a result of
  renewables 0.39 p/kWh
• But wholsesale price has risen from 2p to 4.5
  p/kWh over period because of increases in fossil
  fuel prices.
• Renewables have caused an increase of 8.7 of
  the 225 rise in wholesale prices
• Or account for 3.04 of current retail prices of
  which just 1.5 is attributed to support for
  Wind Energy.
• Renewables are only a very small reason for rise
  in Electricity Bills
• The main causes are increasing dependence on
  imported gas and profits?? by utility companies??

Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC
Website
6
What are causes of rise in recent years? (3)

• Environmental Issues
• In 2011, 160 million tonnes of CO2 were
  emitted in power stations.
• Currently under the EU-Emission Trading System
  the cost of CO2 is around 8 Euros a tonne or 6.4
  
• Total cost of carbon emitted in power stations is
  just over 1 billion pounds or 0.29p/kWh on
  whole sale price representing 2.5 of
  household energy prices.
• Since 2004, only 10 of increase in household
  electricity bills has been from Environmental and
  Renewable Energy Costs.
• New legislation is already driving down support
  costs for renewables
• Wholesale prices are more likely to rise in
  future.
• Measures to reduce consumption in the home now
  will have an important impact in future

7
What are component parts of Electricity Prices?
Retail Price of Electricity in range 12 28p
/kWh often two rates more expensive for first
units cheaper thereafter.

• Charges by Meter Reader e.g. Siemens
• Admin and billing by Electricity Supplier e.g.
  E.ON, nPower etc.
• Profit for Electricity Supplier

10p
Distribution Charges by UK Power Networks
equivalent to overall charge of 1.95 p/ kWh to
domestic consumers
Transmission Network Charges by National Grid
Company. In East Anglia 3.63p / kWh (North of
Scotland 1.48p/kWh - South West 4.23 p/kWh)
Actual cost of generating electricity at power
station including fuel costs varies on 30
minute basis. Average to date in 2012 4.5
p/kWh max 10.9
p/kWh Saturday 11th Feb 1800
min 2.8 p/kWh

Fossil fuel
From ELEXON Website weighted average 30min
figure National Grid Charging Statement
April 2012 UK Power Networks Charging
Statement October 2011
8
What are causes of rise in recent years? (2)
While retail electricity prices remain constant
wholesale price vary substantially over the
day. In America there are already places where
tariff varies 5 6 times a day and consumers get
a discount on these tariffs. Such tariffs may
come to UK in near future.
Wholesale Gas prices are currently 1.75 /kWh and
over 3 times price in 2004 when UK started to run
out of gas. Retail prices are around 3.75 4
p/kWh By 2020 whole prices will rise and may
double from present levels.
Range of Expert Projections
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Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon
Emissions.

• Approximate Carbon Emission factors during
  electricity generation including fuel extraction,
  fabrication and transport.

Fuel Approx emission factor per kWh Comments
Coal 900 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station
Gas 400 430g Assuming CCGT lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe
Nuclear 5 10g Depending on reactor type
Renewables 0 For wind, PV, hydro variable for biomass
Overall UK 540g Varies on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix
Embedded carbon from construction is around 10-20
gms/ kWh for Wind, Nuclear and Coal slightly
less for gas, but rather more for solar
10
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Projected 2020 costs May 2011 ()
Gas CCGT 0 - 80 (at present 40-50) Available now (but gas is running out) 8.0p 5 - 11
nuclear fission (long term) 0 - 15 (France 80) - (currently 18 and falling) new inherently safe designs - some development needed 7.75p 5.5 - 10
nuclear fusion unavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is
completed each year after 2020.
"Clean Coal" Coal currently 40 but scheduled to fall Available now Not viable without Carbon Capture Sequestration 7.5 - 15p - unlikely before 2025
?
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or
using methanolisation to create a new transport
fuel will not be available at scale required
until mid 2020s if then
Energy Review 2011 Climate Change Committee
May 2009
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers May 2011 projection for 2020 (Gas 8.0p)
On Shore Wind 25 available now 8.2p /- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50 available but much more costly than onshore 12.5p /- 2.5
Photovoltaic ltlt5 available, but costly 16p /-4
Biomass ??5 available, but research needed 7 - 13p
Small Hydro 5 limited potential 11p for lt2MW
Wave/Tidal Stream currently lt 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW (0.1) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal / 26.5p Wave
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15 In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p /-5
Geothermal  unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps
Future 2020 prices from Climate Change Report
(May 2011) or recent RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
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Our Choices They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e
onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for
next 10 - 20 years. very expensive or
technically immature or both If our answer is
NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
? Are we happy with this and the
other attendant risks?

• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise
  significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration
  within 10 years UNLIKELY confirmed by Climate
  Change Committee
• 9th May 2011

If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave
things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and
electricity generation? gtgtgtgtgtgt
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Our Choices They are difficult

• If our answer is YES
• By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
• for around 70 of our heating
  and electricity
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran,
  Iraq, Libya, Algeria
• Are we happy with this prospect? gtgtgtgtgtgt

If not We need even more substantial cuts in
energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming? - the
North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on
renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making
will lead us down the GAS option route and all
the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in
our decision making not merely be against one
technology or another
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Our looming over-dependence on gas for
electricity generation
Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 2010

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after
  2020.
• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after
  2020
• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from
  2020
• - 40 of homes fitted by 2030
• 15 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now

• No electric cars or heat pumps

Offshore Wind
Oil
Imported Gas
UK Gas
Onshore Wind
Existing Coal
Oil
Other Renewables
Existing Nuclear
Existing Coal
New Coal
Data for modelling derived from DECC Climate
Change Committee (2011) - allowing for
significant deployment of electric vehicles and
heat pumps by 2030.
New Nuclear
Existing Nuclear
Data for modelling derived from DECC Climate
Change Committee (2011) - allowing for
significant deployment of electric vehicles and
heat pumps by 2030.
Data for modelling derived from DECC Climate
Change Committee (2011) - allowing for
significant deployment of electric vehicles and
heat pumps by 2030.
14
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Many have been warning Government for last 10 -
15 years
But have they listened?
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Raising Awareness Variation in Domestic
Consumption
Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar
Data from 114 Houses in Norwich

• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual
  electricity consumption
• For a given size of household electricity
  consumption for appliances NOT HEATING or HOT
  WATER or COOKING can vary by as much as 9 times.

• Significant savings in money can arise from
  effective awareness raising
• When income levels are accounted for, variation
  is still 6 times

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How we are charged for energy
Current Pricing Tariffs penalise the poor and
those who are energy conservation conscious
- The more you use the cheaper it
gets per unit. An alternative same price for
average consumer, but the poor benefit and for
those with higher consumption, investing in
energy saving devices becomes more cost effective.
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Raising Awareness
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks
like?
On average each person in UK causes the emission
of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did
nothing because he thought he could do only a
little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797)
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Raising Awareness

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a
  washing machine. Using it 4 times a week will
  cost 100 a year just for this appliance alone
  and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
  of 1 party balloon.

• A Mobile Phone charger gt 10 kWh per year
• 500 balloons each year.

• Standby on electrical appliances
• up to 20 - 150 kWh a year - 7500 balloons.
  (up to 15 a year on each appliance)

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc) 1 party balloon every
  60m.

• Filling up with petrol (55 for a full tank
  40 litres)
• --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5 of
  one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family
car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much
carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for
1 hour?
1.6 miles
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Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in
Norfolk and Suffolk
  kWh cost Rank Renewables
Norwich 3,535 79 6 0.0
Ipswich 4,349 97 159 0.0
Waveney 4,417 99 181 1.9
Broadland 4,618 103 231 3.0
Great Yarmouth 4,699 105 252 30.0
St Edmundsbury 4,869 109 280 1.0
Breckland 5,028 112 312 31.8
Forest Heath 5,174 116 336 0.0
Babergh 5,252 117 343 0.1
South Norfolk 5,347 119 358 5.0
Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120 360 1.0
North Norfolk 5,641 126 385 1.3
Mid Suffolk 5,723 128 390 18.3
King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,731 128 393 2.5
UK Average 4478

• of average cost of electricity bills
  compared to National Average
• Rank position in UK out of 408 Local
  Authorities

Average household electricity bill in Norwich is
64 that in Kings Lynn
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District 1080 Community Service Vocations
Committee
Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results
in significant savings
St Pauls Church, Tuckswood
Pilot Lights 9 per week
Heated by 3 warm air heaters
New Strategy pilot lights off throughout
summer and used strategically in winter resulted
in an annual saving of 5400 kWh of gas 1030
kg of CO2 and a monetary saving of 260 Or a
percentage saving of 38
22
The best strategies to save energy, carbon and
money in the home
This software will be available for you to
explore options for your own home at the end
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What are the best strategies in the home?
Basic House No Insulation 1788
100mm Loft Insulation and Cylinder Jacket. 1491
300mm Loft Insulation 1465
Double Glazing (100 mm Loft) 1299
Cavity Insulation (100 mm Loft) 1196
All Strategies condensing boiler 796
Try out your own home on the software.
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What are the best strategies in the home?
Using a tumble dryer 4 times a week can cost 100
a year
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What are the best strategies in the home? (1)

• Insulation / Heating Priorities
• Hot Water Cylinder Insulation
• Time switch hot water requirements with manual
  override
• It is a myth that if insulated it is better keep
  it on all the time
• Loft Insulation - always more cost effective to
  install to the maximum level in one go
• much less cost effective if there is 100 mm
  already
• Cavity Insulation grants available
• Double Glazing - ensure windows are K Glass or
  low emissivity as performance will then approach
  that of triple glazing
• Condensing Boiler will save up to 20 Dont
  confuse with Combis
• Consider fitting a boiler energy manager which
  can save a further 5
• Adjust timing controls to suit need
• Remember to set thermostat appropriately a 1oC
  reduction/increase will cause energy consumption
  to reduce/increase by 8 in UK climate.

26
What are the best strategies in the home? (2)

• A shower can save energy,
• but an electric Power shower used for 3 minutes
  is likely to consume more energy than a bath
• Some myths
• One should not turn fluorescent lights off as
  they consumer more energy in doing so than
  running for 15 minutes.
• WRONG!!!
• Turning up the thermostat will speed up the
  heating time.
• WRONG!!!
• How much does one save if the lid is put on a
  saucepan when cooking vegetables?
• When is your television likely to consume most
  energy?
• Standby on televisions / cable box combinations
  can cost up to 50 a year.

27
What are the best strategies in the home? (2)

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as
  the washing machine and will cost over 100 a
  year to run if used 4 times a week. Consider
  using solar drying in the summer.
• Some DVDs have two power standby modes
• a high level using 20 W (equivalent to 20 a
  year),
• low level one 1 2W (equivalent to around
  1-2 a year).
• low level still retains settings but takes 30
  seconds to warm up.
• Printers can consume up to 20 W or more when on
  standby equivalent to 20 a year
• A study at UEA indicated that 15 of electricity
  bills are typically associated solely with
  standby.
• Do not confuse low voltage with low energy.
  Halogen spotlights can be very wasteful.

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What are the best strategies in the home? (3)

• Do not confuse kW with kWh as is so often done.
• Which consumes the most energy and costs the most
  to run?
• 1) Eight 50 W halogen spots (i.e. 400W total )
  
• running on average 5 hours
  a day
• (i.e. 8 hours a day in winter -
  2 hours in summer)
• 2) Boiling 12 cups (250ml) of water a day
  in a 3 kW kettle
• Lights will consume 2 kWh per day and cost
  95 per year
• Kettle will consume 0.37 kWh per day and cost
  16 per year
• Replace 50 W spots with 20 W bulbs save
  55 per year
• Replace with LED bulbs and save up to 85 per
  year.
• A 1 kW kettle will consume more electricity than
  a 3 kW one.
• Not only does it take three times as long, but
  more heat is lost to surrounds during boiling.

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What about Renewable Energy Options for the
future?

• Energy Generation
• Solar thermal - providing hot water - most
  suitable for domestic installations, hotels
  generally less suitable for other businesses
• Solar PV providing electricity - suitable for
  all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich
  generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).
• The more hot water you use the more solar heat
  you get!
• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2013

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from 5.5 to
  8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer
• Approximate annual estimate of generation
• installed capacity 975 kWh
• Or just under capacity 1000

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Options available for the Householder

• Energy Generation
• Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines
• Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines can be
  good as long as well clear of buildings, trees,
  etc can be a good option for farms

Building Mounted - 1kW machines generally
poor performance because of turbulence except in
a few locations Not generally recommended
Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW
Potential output 6000 10000 kWh depending on
location
Vertical Axis machine better in turbulence
31
Options available for the Householder

• Energy Generation
• Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes
  e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc the cheapest
  form of renewable energy

• Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a
  reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the
  proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are
  attractions for homes heated by oil or
  electricity but not, at present, mains gas.
• Most convenient if running on pellets
• Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to
  automate

32
Options available for the Householder Heat Pumps
Ground Source Heat Pumps
Typically twice floor area of house is required
for heat collection. Best performance with under
floor heating i.e difference between heat
supply and source temperature is as low as
possible
Zones of house can be controlled via a manifold
33
Options available for the Householder Heat Pumps
Heat pumps run off electricity For a well
designed ground source heat pump system
Typically 3.5 4 as much heat is produced as
electricity consumed the Coefficient of
Performance (COP). If a buffer tank is included
in system, then off peak electricity can be
used to heat store overnight minimising use of
full rate electricity.
Air source heat pumps require external fan
system, and are not as efficient as air
temperature is low when most heat is needed.
Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead
to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting
double radiators and/or a buffer tank
34
Options available for the Householder CHP
Replaces normal boiler Provides heat and
electricity would normally run on
gas Currently there are incentives under the
Feed In Tariff.
All microgeneration Installations such as solar,
wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP must be MCS
Accredited

• To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the
  installation must be installed by a registered
  MCS installer.
• Certificate of installation must be presented at
  time of registration.

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Feed in Tariffs payable in 2012-13
Installation Date Installation Date Installation Date Installation Date Installation Date Installation Date
01/04/10 - 31/07/11 01/08/11 31/03/12 01/04/12 31/07/12 01/08/12 31/10/12 01/11/12 31/01/13
Installed Capacity
Solar Photovoltaic New Build lt 4kW 39.60 39.60 Higher 21.00 16.00 15.44
Solar Photovoltaic New Build lt 4kW 39.60 39.60 Middle 16.80 14.40 13.90
Solar Photovoltaic New Build lt 4kW 39.60 39.60 Lower 9.00 7.10 7.10
Solar Photovoltaic Existing Buildings lt4kW 45.40 45.40 Higher 21.00 16.00 15.44
Solar Photovoltaic Existing Buildings lt4kW 45.40 45.40 Middle 16.80 14.40 13.90
Solar Photovoltaic Existing Buildings lt4kW 45.40 45.40 Lower 9.00 7.10 7.10
CHP 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00
Wind lt 1.5 kW 37.90 37.90 35.80 35.80 35.80
Wind gt1.5 kW lt 15 kW 29.30 29.30 28.00 28.00 28.00

• Export Tariff solar installations before
  01/08/2012 and all other installations 3.20 p/kWh
  otherwise 4.5 p/kWh assumed at 50 of
  generation unless metered
• Higher Rate for Individual Domestic Properties
  achieving Energy Standard
• Medium Rate for multiple community schemes
• Lower Rate for domestic properties not achieving
  Energy Standard

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Renewable Heat Incentive from April 2013

• Renewable Heat Incentive will provide support via
  an payment for each unit of renewable heat
  generated.
• Scheme has been delayed, now scheduled to start
  in April 2013
• All eligible installations installed after 15th
  July 2009 will qualify
• Consultation launched on 20th Sept 2012 to decide
  on actual tariffs paid.

Biomass Air Source Heat Pumps Ground Source Heat Pumps Solar Thermal (Hot Water)
p/kWh 5.2 8.7 6.9 11.5 12.5 17.3 17.3
Because of delay, one off vouchers are available
for householders which must be redeemed by 31st
March 2013 or expiry of voucher.
All houses Houses not heated by gas from the grid
300 solar thermal (3 month) voucher 950 biomass boiler (6 month voucher)
850 air source heat pump (5 month)
1250 ground source or water source heat pump (6 month voucher)
37
Conclusions (1)

• Energy Bills are rising and are likely to
  continue to do so now that UK is no longer self
  sufficient in gas
• Wholesale prices for gas (and consequently
  electricity) are dependent on international
  markets and bidding from countries like China.
• Rise in cost of domestic electricity is little
  affected by renewable support. It is affected
  much more by on wholesale prices from s increased
  gas imports to Europe from Middle East and
  Russia.
• An unimproved house built in 1950s can readily
  reduce its heating energy bills by up to 60.
• Awareness in use of appliances can reduce
  electricity bills by 100 or more per annum
• Minimise use of tumble drying
• Keep duration of electric power shower use down

38
Conclusions (2)

• Switch off appliance using a special remote
  switch rather than leaving TVs etc on standby
• Halogen spot lights can be costly to run
  consider reducing wattage to 20/30W or even LEDs
• Reducing thermostats by 1 deg C will save 8
• but do not do this if you are elderly and your
  thermostat is around 20oC already
• New electricity tariffs may come with deployment
  of Smart Meters which would vary retail price
  more in line with wholesale prices. Consumers
  opting for these may see significant discounts.

FINALLY "If you do not change direction, you may
end up where you are heading."
(??)??????,????????
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist
philosopher