ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

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ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

• Science and Policy
• Adjunct Professor D. Rick Van Schoik
• USN, Ecologist, SCERP, PRC
• Please interrupt, introduce yourself, ask
  questions

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INTRODUCTION

• Issues related to the environment are
  increasingly critical as causes and resolution of
  international and civil security and conflict
  issues. All governments are more involved in
  global and regional environmental problems.
• None ten years ago, but nearly all federal
  departments now
• International water disagreements 16 in 1880,
  over 100 today

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PURPOSE OF CLASS

• Gain an understanding of the interdependencies,
  realize the underlying science, recognize the
  role of the environment in policy decisions and
  security situations.
• Develop a scale to measure collective security
• Regional, national, global
• Now, next year, next decade, next century

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PEACE VS WAR

• Negative Peace vs Positive Peace
• Rationale for War (To the victor the spoils)
• Why Rape, Pillage, and Plunder?
• Environmental conditions that affect peoples
  quality of life will motivate them to seek relief
  by whatever means they can.

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SOME DEFINITIONS

• In Past - territorial integrity evolved into
  position in the world eventually for access to
  resources
• DoD strengthening national security through
  environmental protection
• EPA process whereby environmental solutions
  contribute to national security

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ECOLOGICAL ANALOGY

• Assurance of (global) stability through
  environmental health
• Ecological Integrity
• Environmental quality
• Productivity
• Diversity
• Resistance and Resilience
• Sustainable Yields of Harvestable Resources

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SECURITY

• Human Security is social and environmental
• Social Security is political, military, economic,
  personal
• Environmental Security is Protection from
• Ecocide (Military abuse)
• Pollution (Fouled nest)
• Intrusion (Aboriginal peoples)

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RESOURCES

• Renewable or not (Figure 1-9)
• Distribution (Figure 7-2)
• Who owns/controls them (Figure 2-7)

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SUSTAINABILITY

• Use of resources and sinks (economic, natural,
  human, or otherwise) today which does not
  jeopardize the ability of the next generation to
  use that same resource and sink
• Implies a budget of renewal, efficiencies,
  reuse,conservation, and right sharing
• Internalizing costs protects the commons and the
  common welfare

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THE BASIC MODEL

• Environmental Quality and Ecological Integrity
• Social System Changes
• Instability or Insecurity

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THE BASIC MODEL PART 2

• Basic Inputs
• Drivers and Throughput
• Primary Environmental/Scarcity Effects
• Secondary Socio-Economic Effects
• Tertiary Security Output

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BASIC INPUTS

• Finite Planet
• Solar Energy Budget
• Population Increase
• Patchy and Insufficient Resources
• No where to throw away to
• Human Ingenuity

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DRIVERS (NEEDS)

• Air
• Water
• Food Agriculture
• Space Sprawl
• Stuff Industrialization

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THROUGHPUT

• Impoverishment
• Resource Inequity
• Market Forces
• Government Defenses
• Natural Disasters

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PRIMARY ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS

• Water Scarcity
• Land Abuse
• Lost Habitat
• Overfishing
• Pollution
• Global Climate Change
• Stratospheric Ozone
• Ecosystem Stress
• Lost Biodiversity

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SEONDARY SOCIO-ECONOIMC EFFECTS

• Migration and Refugees
• Competition Tension
• Heightened Group Identity
• Social Disintegration
• Capacity Erosion

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TERTIARY SECURITY OUTPUTS

• Ethnic Strife
• Violence
• Negative Peace
• Hostilities and War

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INTERMEDIARIES

• New and Emergent Diseases
• Illicit Crops and Unecological Industry
• Extinctions

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HOMER-DIXON

• Supply Induced Scarcity (Environmental
  Degradation/Depletion)
• Demand Induced Scarcity (Population and
  Consumption)
• Structural Scarcity (Unequal Distribution,
  natural and controlled)
• Resource Capture (Both Induced Scarcities)
• Ecological Marginalization (Demand and Structural
  Scarcities)
• Adaptation Failures (Market, Social Friction, and
  Undercapitalization)

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CAUSALITY

• Proximity (Exogeneity)
• Multicausality
• Interactivity
• Non-linear

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SECURITY

• Health/Impacts gt 1.0

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HEALTH

• CoDevelopment of Four Es
• Economy
• Environment
• Ecology
• Education (Community)

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IMPACTS

• I P A T
• Impact is Use and Waste
• Use Resources so None Tomorrow
• Waste is Fouling Tomorrows Nest
• Big Four
• Water
• Air
• Biodiversity
• Energy

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RISKS

• Figure 8-10

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P POPULATION

• P1 P0 irt

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R VS K STRATEGIES

• Opportunists vs Competitors
• Reproductive Capacities

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CARRYING CAPACITIES

• Ability to sustain the population
• Resources
• Sinks
• Figures 7-4 through 7-9

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ESTIMATES

• Estimates vary from 2 to 1000 billion
• Most resource estimates vary between 8 and 16
• Most consider single factor (Room ,Water, Food,
  etc)
• Multiple-dependency estimates are lower (Food and
  Water)
• Conditions or assumptions are often fatal (All
  oil used to distribute food, No military, etc)
• Useful tool to decide value, ethical, right
  sharing issues

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ONE EXAMPLE

• World Hunger Project
• If all resources devoted to growing and
  distributing food and if everyone were a
  vegetarian, the planetary ecosystem and current
  technology can support 5.5 billion.
• From 1950 to 1984, the Green Revolution increased
  world grain output 2.6 fold
• To support 10 billion means tripling the caloric
  budget.
• What does this mean? what do we need?

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GLOBAL COMMONS

• Concept of the Commons
• Atmosphere - GCC, Ozone, Law of the Air
• Water - Quality and Quantity, Law of the Seas
• Biodiversity - Product of 3,000,000,000 years
• International Stewardship Territories -
  Antarctica, Space
• Global Economy
• The Tragedy of the Commons

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DUAL CRISIS AND ETHICS

• Increasing World Debt
• Decreasing Environmental Quality
• Irreversibility
• Right Sharing of Resources (Gini Coefficient)

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SCIENCE

• Discoverable Order in Nature
• Predictive therefor Decision Tool
• Finders of Facts, Builder of Principles/Paradigms,
  Uncoverer of Concepts/Models

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SCIENTIFIC PROCESS

• Observations Lead to Guesses (Hypotheses)
• Experimentation Leads to Disproving Alternative
  Hypotheses
• Primary Hypothesis is Refined and Retested
• Causality, Synergism, and Feedback

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EVOLUTION BY NATURAL SELECTION

• A Coherent and Consistent Body of Tested Evidence
  which Solves Problesm and Explains wide Phenomena
  and without Internal Disparity
• Works for Species, Habitats, Ecosystems, Planets
• Four Components
• Malthusian Overabundance
• Genetic Variability
• Selective Pressure
• Differential Reproductive Success

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DARWINIAN THEORY

• Change
• Central Theory of all Biology
• Origin of all Diversity (Five Kingdoms)
• Result of Populations not Individuals
• Endorsed by Science, Courts, Church, and Schools

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NON-DARWINIAN THEORIES

• Religious Views
• Survival of the Fittest as Tooth and Claw
• Lamarcian (Aquired Traits) Thoery

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THINGS EVOLVE, SO WHAT?

• Yes, All Things Evolve (Change)
• They adapt to best fit conditions
• Adaptation represents optimality
• Ignoring optimality wastes effort
• Ultimate example is extinction
• Wastes billions of years of experimentation

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GAIA
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FEEDBACK

• Figure 3-4

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