LOST Lifetime Offender Seriousness Tool

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LOST Lifetime Offender Seriousness Tool

• Christine Jamieson
• Strategic Intelligence Analyst
• Youth Services PNHQ
• Police Research Symposium, RNZPC
• 15 July 2008

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Overview

• Lifetime Patterns of Offending
• Risk as an Individual
• Applicable Research Findings
• Operational Drivers for LOST
• Risk Approach
• Support for offender-based processes
• Risk as a Co-offender
• Applicable Research Findings
• Network Analysis / Calculation
• Offender Convergence Settings
• Future Directions

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Risk as an IndividualApplicable Research
Findings

• 10 of our offenders commit 50 of offences
• 4 of victims experience 40 of victimisations
• Repeat victims the work of hottest offenders

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Operational DriversBay of Plenty Deployment
Project

• Move offender-focused Area Intel processes a
  location-based platform
• How to make it easy for Area Intel to succeed
• How do we make location analysis feasible?
• How can we make offender analysis feasible?

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Offender-Based Processes

• Identify suspects
• Support preparation of the interview plan
• Collate manage offender lists
• Risk-rate offenders
• Inform tactics

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AS/NZ 43601999 Risk Management

• Risk Likelihood x Consequence
• Likelihood frequency
• Consequence MOJ Seriousness Score
• (average custodial days per offence
• Imprisoned and non-imprisoned sentences)
• By offence code
• Added to the LRT

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Applying the MOJ Scale
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Identify Suspects( Inform Tactics)
Seriousness
Time (Month)
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Preparation of the Interview Plan

• Offending Summary
• Diverse / Specialised
• Family Violence Roles

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Risk-Rate Offenders

• Youth Offending Risk Screening Tool v.2
• Predicting youth re-offending
• Identifies dynamic ( static) criminogenic needs
• LOST assists with 4 questions
• Version 1 rating single most serious offence
  this time
• Version 2 Historical Annual LOST Score

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(No Transcript)
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Risk Rate Hot Offenders

• AS/NZ 43601999 Risk Management
• Risk Likelihood x Consequence
• (Likelihood) frequency of occurrences x
• (Seriousness) ave. custodial days per offence
• Divided by length of history (years)
• Historical Annual LOST

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Prioritising Hot Offenders

• Priority Offenders Project
• Area Commanders / Tactical Co-ordinators
• National Intelligence Centre

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Inform Tactics

• Evaluate Interventions
• Did seriousness / frequency change?
• Prosecutions Service Centre
• Potential to explore summary of an offender to
  inform judicial decisions

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Effect of Co-offending on Offences

• volume
• seriousness
• Learning applied to future offences
• Leads to more harm for youth offender
• Remains important in adulthood
• A greater factor in Maori Pacific offending?
• US Race not factor in general propensity to
  commit low-serious offences
• Majority of group violence non-whites.
• Reducing co-offending could reduce
  over-representation by Maori Pacific in
  offending population

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Co-offending Networking Analysis
(2 x 1) (1 x 2) 4
(3 x 1) (1 x 2) 5
1 x 1 1
(1 x 2) (1 x 1) 3

4 x 0 0
(1 x 2) (1 x 1) 3
1 x 3 3
(1 x 3) (1 x 1) (1 x 1) (1 x 2) (1 x 1)
(1 x 1) (1 x 2) 11
n

• Co-offending Score
• (For each offence) No. of Offences x No. of
  Co-offender Connections

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So What Do We Do?

• Identify most infectious offenders (rare)
• If not where when they met their first
  co-offenders

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Offender Convergence Settings

• Specific places
• Specific times where
• youth (offenders) are congregating
• no supervision
• idle
• Accomplice regeneration

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WBOP A Case Study

• Surveyed
• Tactical Co-ordinator, CIB (Burg), CIB
  (non-Burg), Intel, GDB, Youth Aid
• Gave blank maps which covered hottest dishonesty
  spots
• Asked where are offenders meeting?
• First 5 did not identify CBD, largely did not
  know
• Youth Aid O/C identified 6 locations within /
  immediately adjacent to 6 hottest spots.

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Future Directions

• Complete cost of crime to date
• Flesh out balanced scorecard

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Future Directions

• Complete cost of crime to date
• Flesh out balanced scorecard
• Macro Data Warehouse What are the norms?
• Micro NIA Person Dossier
• Calculate offending trajectory
• Project lifetime cost
• Calculate value of proactive savings
• Resource effective interventions

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Questions