AERO Modelling System

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AERO Modelling System
Emissions from Aviation AERO
Hans Pulles ICAO Briefing to UNFCCC SBSTA22 Bonn,
May 2005
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Emissions from Aviation AERO
Overview of AERO modelling system
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AERO Data
Emissions from Aviation AERO

• Unified database built from 4 independent
  databases base year 1992
• Model system verified for 1992 and 1997/1998
  (including economics)
• Comparison year with UNFCCC data 1999
• Results

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AERO2KAviation Emissions Inventory for 2002 and
2025
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K
Chris Eyers ICAO Briefing to UNFCCC SBSTA22 Bonn,
May 2005
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AERO2k Overview
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

• An inventory of global aviation emissions for the
  year 2002 based on
• an aircraft movements database
• aircraft fuel usage predictions,
• engine emissions data.
• A forecast of global aviation emissions for 2025
  based on predicted aircraft movements
• A tool to assess aviation emissions now and in
  the future

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The AERO2k Inventory
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

• AERO2K creates a database of global aviation
  emissions for the year 2002 based on
• Actual 2002 aircraft movements database
• Updated aircraft fuel usage predictions based on
  PIANO modelling tool
• Updated engine emissions data
• New particulate and distance flown data
• AERO2k produces a forecast of global emissions
  for 2025 based on predicted aircraft movements

• Based on publicly available data
• Uses latest available data from DLR Fuel Flow
  method

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AERO2K Data Integration
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K
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Allocation onto global grid
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

• Fuel and emissions are allocated onto global
  grids.
• The method determines length of path flown in
  each cell (e.g. blue line on flight path shown).
• Fuel and emissions allocated accordingly.

latitude
longitude
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Forecast for 2025
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

• Factors or methods describing
• change of fuel burn (sfc),
• change of emissions characteristics,
• selection of aircraft types (based on ASK load
  factor),
• uplift on numbers of movements
• Factors specific to regions
• Factors produced by UK DTI (in conjunction with
  Airbus) are applied within the AERO2k software
  tool to produce a forecast of global emissions
  for 2025

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Improvements over previous inventories
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

• Other inventories (ANCAT/EC2, NASA, AERO, FAST,
  AEM, Corinair etc) exist and all have their
  specific application
• AERO2K aims to provide the best available
  aviation emissions data, via
• Improved routing assumptions and representation
  of flight profiles for present day traffic
• Updated and improved methodologies for
  determining fuel usage
• New inventory parameters e.g. flown distances per
  grid cell per hour (for contrail impact analysis)
  and CO/HC and particle number emission indices

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Applications
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

• AERO2K software tool can be re-run or developed
  further to produce, for example,
• selected datasets (eg national emissions)
• other forecasts (eg using FESG forecast)
• other base years or forecast years
• comparison of data with other inventories/methodol
  ogies

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AERO2k Overview
Emissions from Aviation AERO2K

• Gridded 4D emissions results
• 2002 inventory
• 2025 forecast
• Results available at
• http//www.cate.mmu.
• ac.uk/aero2k.asp
• Results by Country to follow ..

Gridded fuel data (total mass) for one full day
NOx - 2002 internal and Eastbound traffic from
Europe
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AERO2K