Trevor Keenan Condor Week BCN' 2224102008

1
GREENCYCLES
Modelling Regional VOC Emissions from European
Forests

• Trevor Keenan Condor Week BCN.
  22-24/10/2008

2
How to explore future climate change scenarios?

Ecosystem fluxes
Direct Deduction
Simulation
Processes
Ecosystem models
Process-based models include the effects of
environmental variables on the dynamics of
ecosystems.
3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
Photosynthesis
7
Model Validation

• Most components validated individually
• Validated against EUROFLUX ecosystem data

8
Model Validation
9
Model Validation
10
Volatile Organic CompoundsScaling Leaf Emissions
to the Canopy Level using GOLITWA

• Reasons why BVOCS
• Atmospheric chemistry
• Allocation of carbon
• Main Approaches Empirical -gt Semi Empirical -gt
  Process Based
• Guenther et al. (1993)
• Martin et al. (2000)
• Niinemets et al. (2002)

11
Guenther et al. (1997)

• Empirical Based model
• Basal emission rate
• Fluctuations around this rate related to
• Leaf temperature
• PPFD

12
Niinemets et al. (2002)

• Semi - Empirical Process Based model
• Emissions linked to Rate of Electron Transport,
  J.

• Epsilon is the fraction of the total electron
  transport that is used for terprene emission,
  incorporating
• The specific activity of the terprene Synthase
  enzyme
• The specific activity of electron transport

13
Martin et al. (2000)

• Semi Empirical Process Based model
• Emission rate calculated on the basis of 3
  limiting processes
• Pyruvate limited rate of Isoprene synthase
  activity
• Phosphorylation limited rate of Isoprene synthase
  activity
• Maximum capacity of Isoprene synthase

14
Site scale model results
15
ATEAM, ALARMAridity Index (THORNTHWAITE) I ((P
ETP)/ETP)100

• We would like to look on the bigger scale

16
Projects ATEAM and ALARM
MiraBosc
17
Problem!!

• One 200 Year simulation (for one pixel) 15
  minutes
• 1 pixels in Europe 32000
• 8000 hours (333 days)
• Add Murphys law and

18
(No Transcript)
19
Computing facilities available
Marenostrum - Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
20
Condor

• Initialisation
• Install dlls and other requirements on each
  machine
• For each pixel, send one job to condor
• Each job contains the model and the parameters
  for the particular pixel
• I can run more than 8000 hours in one week!

21
deciduous
coniferous
LAI
evergreen
CRU climate
22
deciduous
coniferous
NEE Mg C/ha/yr
evergreen
CRU Climate
23
A2 Mortality (2050 2080)
Coniferous
Evergreen
24
Regional Forest Evolution
25
The leisure to perform duplicate simulations
26
The leisure to perform duplicate simulations
27
Conclusions

• The scaling up shows that models that seem valid
  under current site specific conditions can vary
  greatly when applied over wider ranges.
• Results can change dramaticaly when moving to a
  finer spatial scale.
• It wouldnt have been possible without Condor.

28
... fin!Thank you.