Real-time system

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Coupled systems for short-range prediction CAS
vision papers
Real-time system
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CAS is now planning to have a series of short
future vision papers for consideration at the
next Commission session (Seoul, November 2009)
One of which is proposed as "Ocean modelling
issues related to weather and climate", with the
names of Peter Dexter and Neville Smith included
for now, as placeholders Communication with
Peter Dexter
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It would probably help thenm to have a copy of
the EC-RTT paper on Research Aspects of an
Enhanced Framework for Weather, Climate Water and
Environmental Prediction since I believe this did
cover a fair bit of this ground. It will probably
be important to have WCRP ocean modelling
participation. Neville Smith and Michael Beland
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FUTURE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES   Challenges
facing Prediction Research A report of the EC
Task Team (EC-RTT) on Research Aspects of an
Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and
Environmental Prediction Framework World
Meteorological Organization EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
SIXTY-FIRST SESSION Geneva, 3 to 12 June 2009
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8.2 The Council endorsed the need for a major
change in the paradigm for prediction research to
take into account the erosion of traditional
boundaries between weather forecasting, seasonal
forecasting and climate prediction as well as the
expanded mandate of weather prediction services
to provide not only traditional meteorological
forecasts but also new and novel variables and
products, particularly with respect to climate
change. It encouraged Members to adopt a unified
approach to weather, climate, water, ocean and
environmental prediction research and the
associated services. The unified approach to
prediction and services should span multiple
spatial scales as well as multiple time scales,
including for example downscaling of climate
information to local scale. The Council stressed
the importance of managing user expectations In
developing services, 8.3 The Council agreed
that computing capacity is a major limiting
factor in the advancement of prediction
capabilities of Members and that there is a need
for a step up in high-performance computing
investments for coordinating and accelerating
coupled weather, climate, chemical, ocean and
hydrology model development, validation and use.
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Gaps between weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal
predictions   1.1 Support collaborative
climate/weather efforts on the use of Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP) experiments with coupled
ocean-atmosphere models for exploring error
growth in simulations of modes of organized
convection and of interactions between tropical
and extratropical by establishing collaboration
between the TIGGE and CHFP projects (Brunet et
al., 2007).
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Authors are requested to prepare vision papers to
be posted for public comment prior to the
fifteenth quadrennial session of the WMO
Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS-XV) in
Incheon City near Seoul Korea 18-25 November
2009. CAS XV will be preceded by a Technical
Conference 16-17 November 2009 entitled
Environmental prediction In The Next decade
Weather, Climate, Water and the Air We Breathe.
Please submit these papers to WMO Research
Department, Director Dr. Leonard Barrie
(LBarrie_at_wmo.int) and Administrative Assistant
Teresa Alcober (Talcober_at_wmo.int) by 25 July
2009. They should contain a short abstract
summarizing the main points and be five pages
maximum in size. Key reference documents in
pdf format can be cited when they are posted
through URL links.
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WMO will post these documents on the web 1 August
2009 to 15 October 2009 and solicit comments
widely from weather, climate, water and
environmental research community.
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Some focii that might be considered A)
prospects for skilful SST forecasts emerging from
GODAE systems.B) atmospheric state correction
from coupled data assimilation, projection of
ocean innovations from GOOS onto atmospheric
state variablesC) high resolution coupled
air-wave-sea boundary layer modellingD) progress
on coupled tropical cyclone modellingE)
prospects for closure of flux errors for ocean
forecastingF) coupled high resolution
reanalysesG) practical aspects of coupled
NWP-wave-ocean prediction, pattern of skill,
infrastructure
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Actions Comment on the focii (over lunch or by
email) Provide me any references to
reports/publications of coupled impact Leading
systems and researchers in this field
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Gustavo Goni  coordinated a GODAE symposum
Oceanography special issue,Goni et al. (Sandery
co-author), 2009.  Applications of
satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical
 cyclone intensity forecasting. Peer reviewed
invited paper for special  special issue of
Oceanography   ECMWF workshop on air-sea
interaction http//www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meeti
ngs/workshops/2008/ocean_atmosphere_interaction/in
dex.htmlThis  did not consider GODAE systems but
considered some of the important air-sea
 processes that need to be included.
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National report
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GODAE intercomparison - TEIO
SLA
AMSRE
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Benchmarking
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OceanMAPS Coastal SLA Operational relevance

• Operational relevance
• Large potential target audience
• coastal populations
• commercial operations.
• Range of potential new or improved end-user
  products
• Warnings
• Guidance
• Forecasts.
• Final form of these outcomes under development
• Directed by results of detailed evaluation
• skill skill evolution over forecast
• error characteristics and confidence.
• Likely to involve location dependence
• User community feedback.

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OceanMAPS Coastal SLA Operational issues

• Observations
• Quality control
• Relatively sparse insitu obs
• Cant rely on buddy checks
• greater need for QA
• Need to automate
• Quality flags
• Dependence on hardware gauge setup
• Communications system accommodation
• Existing treatment of quality internally
• Non-uniform

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OceanMAPS Coastal SLA example

• Example of good operational performance
• Southern Bight region.
• Good match between de-tided obs OceanMAPS SLA
  operational analysis

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OceanMAPS - Coastal SLA

• Coastal SLA performance results vary with
  location
• Australian region large
• spread of latitudes
• mix of processes
• Obs relatively sparse spatially
• Ongoing analysis work.
• Details to be published.

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Bluelink (BOM/MOM4) model currents Sampled at
glider time/position
Glider observed 0-700m currents
Bluelink example for 15-20 Oct 07
Bluelink is quite consistent with the glider
observations, on large and small scales. It
shows vigorous eddy variability in the Solomon
Sea, masking the western boundary currents. ?
Model simulations help interpret the glider
sampling (eddy vs large-scale). ? Glider data
helps evaluate model fidelity.
William S. Kessler, PMEL
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Incorrect shape of front
Good validation of currents and fronts
Position of front eastward of observed
Red 2008 buoys, Blue 2007 buoys, Black
third party Lagrangian paths represent /- 4 days
of analysis date All buoys from GTS
(unprocessedand unfiltered)
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Saddle point observed and well estimated
Poor comparison between obs and currents
EAC separation point observed further south
Tasman front observed and estimated
Generally good agreement An indication of the
ocean analysis tends to be behind real-time Good
complementary information
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Summons and Brassington
Real-time system