Paleodata from a dynamicists perspective

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PAGES is the IGBP core project charged with
providing a quantitative understanding of the
Earth's past climate and environment.
www.pages-igbp.org
Keith Alverson, Executive Director alverson_at_pages.
unibe.ch
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IGBP Phase 2 (2003 - )
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PAGES Areas of Interest
IGBP
Past Geosphere Biosphere Dynamics
food systems
carbon
water
Past Ecosystem Processes and Human Dimensions
Past Climate Dynamics
IHDP
WCRP
Outreach
Data
Modeling
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PAGES Activities

• Assessment of past environmental changes
• Organization of international research
• Establishment of accessisble, high-quality paleo
  data archives
• Provision of high resolution data for predictions
• Educational and capacity building in developing
  countries

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PAGES Phase 2 (2003 - )
GOALS

• Maintain and build upon the existing community of
  scientists.
• Remain a science driven program with a coherent
  framework for articulation.
• Engage with IGBP future plans as well as those of
  WCRP, IHDP and Diversitas.

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PAGES Phase 2 (2003 - )
FOCI

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PANASH
Paleoenvironment of the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres
PEP I Americas PEP II Austral-Asia PEP III
Euro-Africa
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PANASH- Example
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PANASH- Example
Multi-proxy temperature reconstruction
9000
Terrestrial Macrofossils
Pollen
Coleoptera
Chironomidae
Cladocera
9500
10000
Holocene
10500
11000
Calibrated 14C years BP
11500
Younger Dryas
12000
12500
13000
Allerod
13500
14000
2 4 6 8 10 12
2 4 6 8 10 12
2 4 6 8 10 12
6 8 10 12
6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Reconstructed Mean July air temperature
Birks et al. Eds. 2000. J. Paleolim. 23 (1) 114p.
Patterns of changes are reconstructed by five
independent proxies
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PANASH- Example
Major changes in oscillatory modes are observed
at 1850
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CLIVAR/PAGES Intersection
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CLIVAR/PAGES Intersection
The goal of CLIVAR/PAGES intersection is to
improve the understanding of decadal to
centennial climate variability PMIP
Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison
Project ARTS Annual Records of Tropical Systems
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CLIVAR-example
Analysis of documentary typhoons with annual
tree-ring chronology of climate confirms a
negative correlation with El Nino
Elsner and Liu 2001. Annals of The Association of
American Geographers
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IMAGES
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IMAGES
The overriding IMAGES science issue is to
quantify climate and chemical variability to
determine its sensitivity to identified internal
and external forcings, and to determine its role
in controlling atmospheric CO2
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IMAGES-Example
Revision of global reconstructions of the Ice
Age Earth
Lowering of the eustatic sea level indicated
by coral reef and coastal sediment core data
Schneider et al. PAGES News 2000-2
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Polar Programs
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Polar Programs
Paleoclimate and environmental variability in
polar regions

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Polar- Example
The North-South anti-phase raises the importance
of understanding the climate dynamics coupling
between the hemispheres
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Ecosytem/Human Interactions
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Ecosystem/Human Interactions
The goal of Focus 5 is to integrate past
human-environment interactions at sub-continental
scales with research and modeling based on
present day ecosystems and watersheds
Hite Human Impacts on Terrestrial
Ecosystems LUCIFS Land Use Changes and Impacts
on Fluvial Ecosystems LIMPACS Human Impacts on
Lake Ecosystems
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Ecosystem/Human- Example
Future predictions are more realistic when they
are based on paleo-data.
Shifts from deciduous to coniferous forests are
driven by climate change and land-use interactions
Bradshaw et al. 2000. PAGES News Vol. 8 no. 2
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PAGES Phase 2 (2003 - )
Initiatives

• Largely replace Tasks and Activities
• Defined goals and timelines
• Periodic reviews (lt 5 years)
• For Example GPOS (Global Paleoclimate
  Observing System)

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Whats on Deck?
Second PAGES Open Science Meeting Beijing, May,
2004
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PAGES News

• Thematic Issues
• Science Highlights
• Program News
• Circulation 3000, 3/year

Forthcoming Issues Mountains, 12/01 Dendrochronol
ogy, 4/02 Isotopes, 8/02 Documentary Records,
12/02
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PAGES Products

• Books and Special Issues
• Review Papers
• Brochures
• Transparencies

Forthcoming Products Paleoclimate, Global
Change and the FutureAlverson et al, edsPAGES
Synthesis book, Springer, 2002. Past Climate
Variability Through Europe and Africa, Battarbee
et al, eds.PEP3 Synthesis book, Kluwer, 2002.