The Maltusian Moment?

1
The Maltusian Moment?

• Should we eat our parents?
• Or our children?
• Or our pets?

Or our pets?
2
Gross Domestic Product
3
Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per
1,000 population
Natural Increase
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, 2005.
4
Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

• Birth rates and death rates are declining around
  the world.
• Overall economic development, public health
  programs, and improvements in food production and
  distribution, water, and sanitation have led to
  dramatic declines in death rates. And women now
  have fewer children than they did in the 1950s.
• What happens when the lines birth rate and death
  rate cross?
• That is, who will pay for retirement (with a pay
  as you go system? And this is already happening
  in many European countries.

5
Reaching Replacement Fertility
Average number of children per woman
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, 2005.
6
Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, 2005.
7
Growth in More, Less Developed Countries
Billions
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (medium scenario),
2005.