Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards and Acceptable Risk

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Risk, Reality, Reason End-To-End Standards and
Acceptable Risk

• Erastus Hamm
• Dow Chemical Corporation

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Balance of risk
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Cycle of risk
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Risk and other things
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Decisions
TheFROGS
Salome
JERRY
SPRINGER
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D.A.R. Standards
May 1, 2005
Acceptable Risk
AR Calculator
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What is risk?
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Govt risk assessment
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New mechanisms
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2,4,5-T
Until 1974 Company proves safety After
1974Government proves danger
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National to global
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More on the global
Sane-ing up risk
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Corps and govt
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URC
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URC stats

• Core DB
• gt500,000 cases
• 84 parameters
• Location
• Timeframe
• Casualties
• Financial results
• Collateral damage
• Time until legal closure
• Etc.

• Ancillary DBs
• Production substances and their risks
• Legal environments
• Cost of litigation per unit time
• Income levels
• Medical costs
• Climatic variations
• Histories of unrest
• Cultural particuliarities
• Etc.

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Risk types
Mitigated Causality / Indirect Ownership
Marginal Target / Unclear Impact
Uncertain Provenance / Diverse Agency
Unproven Harm / Diffuse Risk
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UHDR
Unproven Harm / Diffused Risk
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MCIO
Mitigated Causality / Indirect Ownership
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URC Figures
2.0B
1.5B -

1.7B -
0.4B

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MTUI
Marginal Target /Unclear Impact
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Factory
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Agriculture
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UPDA
Uncertain Provenance /Diverse Agency
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Competitors
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Vid1.mov
Gilda says
The only good skeleton
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Final slide
is a gold skeleton!