Priority Index Value PValue Validation Results and AFOM Process Howgozit

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Priority Index Value (P-Value)Validation Results
and AFOM Process Howgozit

• LCDR J. Gaffe, USN
• 2 June 2005

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P-Value Purpose

• Provides a tool to the Resource Sponsor and
  Decision Board Member
• Prioritizes Modernization Plan
• Based on CBA, AFOM, Hull Count and Platform Type
  Applicability
• Vector Sum of Key Parameters (removes
  straight-average effect of low values in one
  parameter)

P-value 1- ((TA) SQRT ((AFOM) 2 (CBA) 2
(HC) 2 (PC) 2) / 2)
Key AFOM Alteration Figure of Merit CBA Cost
Benefit Analysis HC Hull Count PC Platform
(Type) Count
Briefed at May 05 CFT-4 Workshop
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P-Value Parameters
Key AFOM Alteration Figure of Merit CBA Cost
Benefit Analysis HC Hull Count PC Platform
(Type) Count
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Example
P-value 1- ((TA) SQRT ((AFOM) 2 (CBA) 2
(HC) 2 (PC) 2) / 2)
CTN 63 AFOM 62nd tile CBA0 ROI HC1.0 (all
ships of multiple classes) PC1.0 (Multiple
platforms)
CTN 208 AFOM 21st tile CBA.75 (3.0 ROI) HC1.0
(all ships of multiple classes) HC1.0 (all
DDGs) PC.5 (Single Platform)
CTN
Modernization Plan
XXX
63
P22
Key AFOM Alteration Figure of Merit CBA Cost
Benefit Analysis HC Hull Count PC Platform
(Type) Count
208
P32
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Validation Results
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P-Value Sorting
Lower is better CTN 261 at the bottom due to
incorrect SPM recommendation parameter
Corrected to Recommended 1.0 New P-Value is 45
vs. 72
181 SCDs (145 at May Workshop)
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
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P-Value Sorting
Highest Value is CTN 235
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Conclusions

• Expected outcome
• HME and C5I ship changes equally treated by
  vector-sum equation
• High Platform count and Hull count places SCDs
  closer to top of the list
• High AFOM (for Capability/Warfighting
  improvements) or High CBA ROI (HME Suitability
  improvements
• Actual outcome Expectations met
• CFT-4 Workshop inputs Add shore installations
  to Hull Count parameter

Concept validated and will be included in
Entitled Process
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AFOM Howgozit
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SHIPMAIN AFOM CONOPS
Numbered Fleet/TYCOM Priorities
NAVAL POWER 21
CFFC/CNO Annual Guidance
3-Star Board (Annual) Set Benefit Structure
Weights for Naval Capability Packages and MCPs
MAQs
Weights may change annually or as directed by FFC
or the SHIPMAIN Flag/O-6 Boards in response to
world events or changing priorities
(Weighted Benefit Structure in NDE) TYCOM(s)
Assign Index Values to MCPs and Suitability
Scales
Ship Change Document (SCD)
Technical Assessment
Cost Benefit Analysis
RCP
AFOM Calculated by NDE using TYCOM Rating Scale
Inputs
Program or Fleet Alteration
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AFOM Calculation Review

• Given five SCD AFOM Raw Scores
• 0.1,  0.2 , 0.6 , 0.6,  0.9 
• What is the percentile score for a .60 raw score?
• Normalized Raw .6/.9 (highest score) or .67

The Normalized Raw is calculated and displayed
as the Percentile Score on the SCD and RCP
Most raw scores on the order of .4 to .5 for any
given SCD
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AFOM Process Whats working

• Cycle time reduced/ MAR 05 backlog eliminated
• CY04 15 days
• CY05 6 days
• Better quality inputs and comments by TYCOMs
• Process acclimation/staff workarounds in place

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AFOM Process Challenges

• Merit Assessment Questionnaire inputs not
  received
• Impact Still using single MAQ from VADM LaFleur
  (USN, Ret.)
• Resolution Transition of AFOM Weighting Process
  to FFC N8
• Statutory Ship Changes
• Raw Score automatically set to 1.0 100th
  Percentile
• Impact Drives all other SCD AFOM Scores to low
  AFOM scores (in 25th or lower percentile)
• Potential disapproval by O-6 Board
• Resolution Set aside Statutory SCDs in Phase
  Population (scores not figured in overall
  percentile calculations) in Interim SCD software
  release
• Fixed in EP Software
• AFOM Change Mangers provide qualitative comments
  in AFOM Comments box to offset
• Workflow Need better filtering/disposition
  indications on the SCD once AFOM is assigned
• Added to Interim SCD Software Build Definition
  Scoping efforts