A Brief Introduction of NWPD at NMC/CMA

1
A Brief Introduction of NWPD at NMC/CMA

• Drs. Jiandong Gong and Guo Deng
• National Meteorological Center
• China Meteorological Administration

2
OUTLINE

• Staff in Numerical Weather Prediction Division
• Development on Global Medium Range Model
• Development on Fine Atmospheric Model
• Development on Ensemble Forecasting
• Development on Typhoon Forecast
• Development on Environment Exploration
• Model verification and Assessment
• System Integration and Technique Support

3
Staff Resources at NWPD
Total staffs 335 Ph.D 18, Master 14,
Bachelor 6
4
Staff and Work
Total38,25 work on model development
5
Age Structure of NWPD
NWPD has a young team
6
Main Duties of NWPD

• To Maintain and Develop Operational Numerical
  Weather Forecasting Systems
• To Make Guiding Numerical Products for Nationwide
  Meteorological Offices
• Verification and Assessment of Numerical Weather
  Products
• To Improve Numerical Weather Service Models and
  DA Schemes
• To Develop and Improve Environmental Meteorology
  Models
• To Analyze Tendencies of NWP and Set up
  Corresponding Development Plans

7
Models Updated In Past 20 Years
8
CRAY-C92
9
Period Operating Model Systems Computer
1995. The Model for Typhoon Track Prediction(MTTP) CRAY-C92
1998. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model(Hysplit4) Servers
1998.6gt 2000.8gt 2004.6 Beijing Area Mesoscale Model Systemgt Huabei Mesoscale Model(HB-MM5)gt GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System)-MESO SP-2 Shenwei-1
1999. Forest Fire Danger Forecast Model CRAY-C92 IBM-SP
2000.3 Global Medium Range EPS T106L19/32 Shenwei-1
2001.6 Air Quality Forecasting System Shenwei-1
2004.3 Sand-Dust Numerical Forecast Model Sys. DEC-ALPHA
2004.6 Global Typhoon Track Forecast System IBM-SP
10
1.Work on Updates of Global Medium-Range Forecast
System
11
RMSE for NH 500hPa Geopotential Height for Past
20-Years
12
TEMP ??
SHIPS ??
????
SYNOP ??
SATOB ??
CMW ??
AIRPLANE ??
13
AMSUA
14
1.1 Global ATOVS-3DVAR System was in
Quasi-Operation since Dec.2006
China area
AC
AC
Northern Hemisphere
500 hPa height monthly mean anomaly correlation
????
Forecasting days
Southern Hemisphere
??????
AC
AC
Tropical region
??????
2006???500hpa??????
????
????
15
1.2 T319L31 experiments stats 500mb Height
AC/RMSE for year 2005
East Asia Annual mean 500 mb GH Anomaly Corelation
East Asia Annual mean 500 mb GH RMSE
AC
RMSE
The 10 Day Forecasting of Geopotential Height of
TL319L31 Is better than that of 10 T213L31
16
1.3 Further experiment to upgrade from T213L31
to T639L60
AC
AC
There is 16 5-d AC score improvement by using
NCEP ANALYSIS DATA as initial condition
Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu
17
1.4 GRAPES-Global Parallel Test 50KM
GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction
System)is a national-key project for 5 years
(2001-2005) The GRAPES project was launched in
2001. It is cosponsored and supported by Chinese
MOST and CMA.
18
Grid system lat.-long. grid
Integration SI-SL
Space resol. Multi-scales
Dynamical Core Full compressible HY/NH
GRAPES
Vert. Coodinate H. Terrain Flw.
Assimilation 3DVAR/4DVAR
Phy. Schemes Full Phy. package
Code Architec. Mod./Parall.
19
Atmospheric Research
Real-time Operational Implemt.
Ensemble Forecasts
Climate modeling
GRAPES Applications
TC Forecasts
Field exp. Simul.
Lightning Modeling
Training Tool
Sand Dust Forecasts
Operationally implemented in NMC, RMCs (Shanghai,
Guangzhou, Provinces, ) more 50 users
(including universities, research institutions)
20
GRAPS .vs T213L31 (opr)
Jan.2005
AC
AC
AC
Feb.2005
Jul. 2005
21
2 Work on Upgrades of Regional Short-range
Forecast System
22
2.1 Operating GRAPES-MESO System
8?21?????????,???9210????????
AC
23
2.2 Fine Resolution Assimilation/Forecast System
Data pre-processing
Physics Paramet.
LSM
Dynamical data (?????????)
Urban PBL
Static data
Micro-Physics
Initial Fields
Model post process(Interp. Products,Visu.)
??????????
24
2.2.1 Radar DA (ReflectivityVelocity)
Exp. CTL radial velocity observations are
assimilated with WRF-3DVar Exp. PV both radial
velocity and reflectivity observations are
assimilated with PI3DVAR Tab.1 Correlation
coefficient between the hourly forecast
reflectivity and the observed for the two
experiments.
25
2.2.2 The Effect of Digital Filter Initialization
Averaged absolute value of surface pressure
tendency

• ?????????????
• ?????????????
• ??????????
• ?????,??,??VAD????????
• ???????
• Nonconventional data assimilation and
  digital filter initialization for RUC system to
  be established.

26
Top Left Experiment of control conventional
data Bottom Left add surface, VAD winds ,
Doppler Radar data in Tianjin and Shijiazhuang,
and initialized with digital filter Bottom right
Observation
24Hr Rainfall Observation
27
2.2.3 The improvement of the Physics Processes

• Microphysics Process
• Modification for HL3 simple ice scheme
• Sensitivity of Convective Parameterization
• PBL Scheme and Land Surface Process
• The implement of urban canopy parameterization in
  PBL

28
The effect of urban building in UCP
GIS
(Otte, 2004)
29
Parameterization of Urban Area
30
The diurnal variation in urban area
Improvement of the 2-m temperature
Heat island
Improvement of the 10-m wind
31
3. Work on Upgrades of Ensemble Forecast System
32
3.1 Global Medium Range EPS
Thanks to Dr. Jun Du
Technique???????? ??????(BGM)
Flow Chart
250hPa????
500hPa???????
33
T106L19, SVs
BGM cycling
Operation system
???1/330.3
Equal probability 1/330.03(Red line)
????????????
Thanks to Dr. Bo Cui
34
Quasi-operational GEPS
RMSE CTL
Ensembl mean
RMSE
spread
Ensemblemean
Mean ACC DURING Jun.-Aug.
ctl
????
????
35
Upgraded operational EPS system
EPS Operational Qusi-operation
Model T106L19 T213L31
Horizontal resulation 1.125deg Gaussian Grid 0.5625 Reduced Grid
Vertical resolution 19 31
Analysis Scheme 3D OI 3D MVOI/3DVARVAR
Perturbation SVs BGM
Target area Global Global
Members 33 15
Products Seldom Abundance
Verification Less More
Operational Time 2000 2006
36
3.2 Regional Mesoscale EPS Experiment for
Implementation
37
18z
00z
06z
12z
Global EP pairs(00z/12z)
Bred Cyc
Assim Cyc
Global EP control
Meso-scale EP pairs(12z)
Bred CYC
Bred Cyc
Boundary Initial
WRF model
Meso-scale EP control
Assim CYC
Assim CYC
3DVAR analysis
6h cycle
38
3.3 WMO/WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and
Development Project

• MEP RDP participating systems
• CMA meso-scale EPS
• CMA GRAPES ETKF EPS
• NCEP new version SREF
• MSC regional EPS
• UKMO global/regional EPS
• JMA global/meso-scale EPS
• NCAR WRF system
• Austrian weather service and Météo-France joint
  system (ARPEGE/ALADIN/AROME

Thanks to Drs. Geoff DiMego, Zoltan Toth and
Stephen Lord
39
4. Upgrades of Typhoon Track Prection
40
4.1 Global Model for Typhoon Track
Prediction(GMTTP)
41
4.2 Union of T213 and typhoon Relocation Technique
Thanks to Dr. Qingfu Liu
42
5 Construction of TIGGE Asia Archive Center
Archive center
??????????????,Key techniques Data Exchange and
Retrieval
43
6. Expand in Environmental Meteorology Models

• Routine Operation
• Ultraviolet index prediction2003
• Air Quality Forecasting System2001
• Forest fire weather index prediction1999
• Nuclear Pollution Transport /Dispersion1998
  (upgrading at 2002)
• Wave Numerical Forecasting System2005
• Sand-Dust Numerical Forecasting Model
  System2006

44
6.1 Coupled Wind Erosion Scheme and MM5
Numerical Model System

• Soil type
• Vegetation category
• Height of vegetation
• Cover fraction of vegetation
• Leaf aera index(LAI)
• Land-sea index

wind erosion model
Aerosol cycle(entrainment, transportdeposition
45
upsimulated surface concentration(mg m-3 )
downWMO GTS code
46
6.2 Ultraviolet rays Index Forecast 6
Zenith Angle
IBM-SP
Pre-Processing Medium Range Forecasting Output
3-day Forecast Radiation Intensity Of
Ultraviolet Ray
Convert to index and grades
Model Variables
Meteorological observatory
Ozone Data Output
Products
intranet
Specialized ?????
Arching
Provided by Guan Chenggong of NWPD/NMC
47
2003/04/03 1400 BJT
Cloud cover OBS
Precipi OBS
UVI from T213
UVI from T106
48
6.3Service Products for Natural Gas Blowout
Accident in Chongqing
49
6.4 Operation of Global Wave Model and
Development of Regional Wave Model
Observation 24hr forecast
5km resolution
15km resolution
50
7. Model Statistics and Verification
51
Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu
Verif. For EPS
Spread?BSS?Talagrand?RPS?ROC,etc
52
Auto. Figs Output System
53
(No Transcript)
54
Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu
Calibration on Prec.
55
9.Products and Display
56
Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis
And Process System
57
(No Transcript)
58
SMS(Supervisor Monitor Scheduler)?????????
10. System Integration and Technique Support
59
Acknowledgements

• Qingfu Liu (relocation method)
• Jun Du (regional ensemble system)
• Yuejian Zhu (calibration, verification, NCEP
  analysis data)
• Bo Cui (bias correction method)
• Geoff DiMego, Zoltan Toth and Stephen
  Lord(B08RDP/EPS/TIGGE)

60
????!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION