The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: Oregon

1
The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
Oregons Perspective

• Progress, Future Goals and Proposed Work
• for Fiscal Year 2008

National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
Annual Meeting Honolulu, Hawaii November 1,
2007
Robert C. Witter Oregon Regional Coastal
Geologist Jay Wilson Earthquake, Tsunami
Volcano Programs Coordinator
2
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach

• Continuing work on Post- Disaster Recovery
  Planning (w/CREW)
• Continuing work towards Oregons unified tsunami
  warning standard
• Developed and released the Tsunami Emergency
  Guidebook for Oregon Mass Media

3
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach

• Working closely with WFO Portland on providing
  guidance to Lincoln Citys new TsunamiReady
  Program coordinator, Althea Turner
• Progress made on Seaside tsunami risk mitigation
• CERT training initiated
• School tsunami ed program updated
• Acquiring Tone/Voice sire system
• Tsunami outreach coordinator
• Reverse 911

4
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach

• Working with WC/ATWC, reviewed and revised the
  tsunami warning and advisory criteria after the
  Kuril Islands event

Impacts in Crescent City, CA
5
1964 Tsunami Video

• Compiling interviews and observations of the 1964
  Alaska tsunami in Oregon

Tom Horning discusses multiple sites in Seaside,
during 1964 tsunami
6
1964 Tsunami Video

• Compiling interviews and observations of the 1964
  Alaska tsunami in Oregon

1964-Seaside, Sea foam inundation, From
Necanicum River
2007-Seaside, Current location, Near Convention
Center
7
1964 Tsunami Video

• Compiling interviews and observations of the 1964
  Alaska tsunami in Oregon

1964-Seaside, late Tsunami surge on the
following day
2007-Seaside, Tsunami vulnerable Dock,
especially considering new Tsunami Advisory
8
Observations of Tsunami Impacts

• Mapped extent of 3 prehistoric tsunami deposits
  in Cannon Beach, Oregon
• Used geologic data to reconstruct prehistoric
  landscape
• Compiled historical reports on 1964 tsunami
  impacts
• Using tsunami observations to verify computer
  simulations

Peat
Debris layer
Sand
Peat
9
Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami
House carried 400 m upstream
Bridge deck carried 300 m upstream
Cannon Beach Elementary School
Bridge alignment
Bell Harbor Motel
Foundation
Published in the Hillsboro Argus, March 30, 1964
10
Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami
Bell Harbor Motel
Bell Harbor Motel, fronting on Elk Creek at the
north end of Cannon Beach, found itself in the
direct path of the incoming tidal wave that swept
up the little stream. The motel was inundated,
and debris strewed its yard. This building roof,
carried hundreds of yards, wound up in the front
yard. Daily Astorian, March 30, 1964
11
Comparisons of Models vs Sand Sheet
Elementary school
Average 9
Small 1 no dune
Small 1 dune
Proposed School
N
City Hall
2000
0
feet
Fire Station
500
0
meters
12
Cannon Beach Tsunami Hazard Assessment
Cannon Beach
Cannon Beach, Oregon
Vertical seafloor deformation

• Developed new Cascadia earthquake source
  characterization
• Finalizing 25 Cascadia tsunami scenarios
• Simulated 1964 and worst-case Alaska tsunamis
• Probabilistic map explores the variability and
  uncertainty in the earthquake source process
• Expanding tsunami hazard assessment into southern
  Oregon

13
Conceptual Tsunami Hazard Map
Worst-case Cascadia
Elementary school
Most likely Cascadia
Cannon Beach, Oregon
Worst-case distant
Proposed School
City Hall
Fire Station
14
Oregons Long-Term Goal
Accelerate and complete tsunami hazard
mapping along entire Oregon coast in the next 5
years

• Complete Cannon Beach Tsunami Hazard Assessment
  (winter 2008)
• Develop prototype online interactive tsunami
  hazard and evacuation map for Cannon Beach
  (summer 08)
• Use selected tsunami scenarios to map inundation
  hazard to entire northern Oregon coast (2009)
• Complete online interactive tsunami hazard and
  evacuation maps for northern Oregon coast (2010)

15
A Five-Year Plan

• Bandon Tsunami Hazard Assessment (fall 2007)
• Develop Cascadia earthquake source
  characteriza-tion for southern Oregon (fall
  07-winter 08)
• Investigate prehistoric tsunami inundation and
  runup at Bandon, Oregon (winter-summer 2008)
• Run multiple tsunami simulations for Bandon
  (2009)
• Use selected tsunami scenarios to map inundation
  hazard to southern Oregon coast communities
  (2010)
• Complete mapping of southern Oregon coast (2011)
• Education and outreach (ongoing)

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FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 1 Mitigation and
Preparedness

• Develop effective public outreach programs and
  media tools
• Presentations to Lodging Assoc., CERTs, Oregon
  State Parks
• Tsunami Emergency Guidebook for Oregon Mass Media
• PSAs and press packets
• Develop the next generation tsunami evacuation
  maps for Cannon Beach as digital online
  interactive maps (ARC IMS)
• Consistent information and style
• Zoomable to business or home location
• Explore feasibility of an Oregon Tsunami Advisory
  workgroup
• Support NOAA-NWS TsunamiReady activities
• Contribute to NTHMP and international mitigation
  efforts

Task 1 Costs Labor Non-labor
57,242 7,235 64,477
17
FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 2 Inundation
Modeling and Mapping

• Complete compilation of eyewitness observations
  for video documentary of past tsunami impacts on
  the Oregon coast
• Develop new earthquake source models for southern
  Cascadia
• Complete probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments
  for southern Cascadia at Bandon, Oregon
• Develop the next generation tsunami hazard maps
  using an online interactive map display (ARC IMS)

Task 2 Costs Labor Non-labor
108,241 66,108 174,349
18
FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 3 Tsunami
Notification Infrastructure

• Support efforts of coastal communities to
  mitigate tsunami risk
• Ensure that communities have access to multiple
  communication pathways for tsunami warnings
• Participate in end-to-end tests of the tsunami
  alert system

Task 3 Costs Labor Non-labor
0 36,174 36,174
Total NTHMP Costs Labor Non-labor
160,483 109,517 275,000