Modeling Climate Change

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Modeling Climate Change
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What do we mean by climate change?

• Gradual change in temperature, precipitation,
  etc
• Change in variability, such as frequency of
  hurricanes
• Surprises, like abrupt change in temperature
  never seen before

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The important questions to ponder

• What elements of climate are changing?
• Is the surface temperature at Alexandria Egypt
  changing?
• Are the number of hurricanes per year in Florida
  on average different than during some previous
  time?
• Does the rainy season begin at a different time
  of year now compared to the previous century?
• In what direction are they changing?
• Is the temperature going up or down?
• Are there more or less hurricanes than
  previously?
• Does the rainy season in India start earlier or
  later than in the previous century?
• How much are they changing?
• Is the change in temperature 0.2oC , 2.0oC, or
  20oC?
• Are there 1, 10, or 100 more hurricanes than
  the previous period?
• Does the rainy season start a day later, a week
  later, or a month later than in the previous
  century?

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The important questions to ponder

• For what reasons are they changing?
• Has the city grown up around the historical
  measurement site?
• Is the Gulf of Mexico water temperature higher
  than some previous time?
• Have humans somehow perturbed the mechanisms that
  cause rainfall?
• What should we do about it?
• Nothing Take collective (political) action to
  limit emission of greenhouse gases Adopt a
  less-consuming personal lifestyle?

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We can think of the behavior of the elements that
comprise the Earth systemSchematic Model
Randall, et. al, CSU
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Geodesic Grid
Nearly all grids are equal area
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Chaos

• Equations are Almost intransitive
• A is related to B
• B is related to C
• C is related to A

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Condorcets Paradox (of voting)

• Voter 1 A B C (descending order of preference
• Voter 2 B C A
• Voter 3 C A B
• If majority rules, who is the true winner? If
  you score each candidates place, who is the
  winner?

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Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC)
http//www.ipcc.ch
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IPCC ScenariosA1

• A future world of very rapid economic growth,
  global population that peaks in mid-century and
  declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction
  of new and more efficient technologies.
• Major underlying themes are convergence among
  regions, capacity building, and increased
  cultural and social interactions, with a
  substantial reduction in regional differences in
  per capita income.
• Three subgroups
• fossil intensive (A1FI),
• non-fossil energy sources (A1T),
• or a balance across all sources (A1B).

http//www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres-e.pdf
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IPCC ScenariosA2

• A very heterogeneous world
• The underlying theme is self-reliance and
  preservation of local identities.
• Fertility patterns across regions converge very
  slowly, which results in continuously increasing
  global population.
• Economic development is primarily regionally
  oriented and per capita economic growth and
  technological change are more fragmented and
  slower than in other storylines.

http//www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres-e.pdf
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IPCC ScenariosB1

• A convergent world with the same global
  population that peaks in mid- century and
  declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline
• Rapid changes in economic structures toward a
  service and information economy, with reductions
  in material intensity, and the introduction of
  clean and resource-efficient technologies.
• The emphasis is on global solutions to economic,
  social, and environmental sustainability,
  including improved equity, but without additional
  climate initiatives.

http//www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres-e.pdf
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IPCC ScenariosB2

• A world in which the emphasis is on local
  solutions to economic, social, and environmental
  sustainability.
• A world with continuously increasing global
  population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate
  levels of economic development, and less rapid
  and more diverse technological change than in the
  B1 and A1 storylines.
• While the scenario is also oriented toward
  environmental protection and social equity, it
  focuses on local and regional levels.

http//www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres-e.pdf
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What the models tells us
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Projections for Global Surface Temperature
290
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Meehl et al, 2005
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Projections for Global Surface Temperature
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286
Meehl et al, 2005
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http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
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Changes in Sea Ice Coverage
Meehl et al, 2005
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NCAR/Ohio State Operational Antarctic Forecasts
The forecast was provided in time for BBV to get
out and avoid damage to the aircraft, for which
we are most grateful!
We thank you for providing support and
weather forecasts to our remote tent camp of 6
persons during the 2005-06 season. These
forecasts increased our preparedness for severe
weather and did much to improve our overall
safety in the field.
Christine Siddoway PI, G-088
Nov 15, 2005, Fosdick Mountains - last chance
to leave
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Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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CCSM-3 SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS2000-2400
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Kennedy Space Center
Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying
areas
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft)
rise in sea level
Miami
Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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Regional Changes
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For the Midwest

• Warming will be greater for winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
  day
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
  the probability of a heat wave
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
  now than in 1950)
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding