Neighbourhood Statistics delivering the Census outputs

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Neighbourhood Statistics - delivering the Census
outputs

• Jon McGinty Director
• Neighbourhood Statistics and Census Outputs

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Neighbourhood Statistics adding value
Developing capability based on NR imperative
Responding to changes in new questions/policies
Census 2001
Factfiles
Neighbourhood Statistics
Common referencing
Regional outcome indicators
Confidentiality
Accessing administrative sources
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6
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Neighbourhood Statistics adding value
THE CENSUS 2001 IS . the defining reference
source of neighbourhood population
statistics ensuring the matching of all other
records to neighbourhood populations acting as an
anonymised person register for statistical
matching often mapped alongside other geographic
information

• Common geographic unit for statistics
• Population base structure, at all levels
• Household and person level database of key topics
• Access tools

Census 2001
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6
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Neighbourhood Statistics adding value

• Apply Common geographic unit
• Statistical matching to addresses, persons
• Access tools

• Fit Common properties
• geography
• concepts
• units

RETROFIT COMMON PROPERTIES TO RECORDS . Build
coherence, by fitting past records to standard
output areas, adopt the core census rules for
confidentiality protection apply address coding
to build statistics from basic units where not
protected, make address detail available map
alongside other geographic information
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6
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Neighbourhood Statistics adding value

• Records with address code, or common identifiers
• Statistical matching carried out
• Legal authority to access and protect records
  used for statistics
• Confidentiality and access protection, same as
  Census
• Access tools

Expanded use of administrative records
Factfiles
EXPAND USE OF ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS.. Address
code events, places through TOIDS Link to person
sector identifiers Use statistical matching if
direct linkage not possible update local
population in between censuses map alongside
other geographic information Expand policy
relevant scope
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6
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Contribution to new Population Statistics System
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The value of the Census

• Not just another dataset. Uniquely adds value to
  all other data
• Validation
• Estimation
• As a frame
• As an anonymised person register
• Denominators
• 2001 - up from 10 to 100 information for 10
  questions

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Stability of population in small areas
Births/Deaths
Migration
Low High

• Fertile cohorts main driver
• Retired cohorts major driver
• Cohort mix (age profile) main source of variation
  and rate of change
• Potential for rapid structural shifts

• Cohort ageing main driver
• Population structure stable
• Strong community - high social capital

Low High

• Family formulation/dissolution
• Boundary change
• Lifecycle transitions amplified (student)
• Temporary accommodation
• Ethnic change
• Potential for rapid structural shifts

• Neighbourhood renewal
• Cohorts begin shared experience
• Large industry change
• Urban infrastructure shifts
• Ethnic change
• Potential for rapid structural shifts
• Community fragmented - low social capital

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Statistical basis for neighbourhood information
Scope, cohesion Area fit, diversity

• National units, National measures
• household and business sample surveys

• Local units, National measures
• Population Census
• Boosted Labour Force Survey
• Administrative data sources

Compa-rability Relev-ance

• Area concepts defined by measures
• environment
• urban areas
• connectedness

• Local units, Local measures
• regional industry/employment analysis
• devolved country studies
• LA performance and service delivery

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Statistical basis for neighbourhood information

• National units, National measures
• household and business sample surveys

• Local units, National measures
• Population Census
• Boosted Labour Force Survey
• Administrative data sources

Compa-rability Relev-ance
Neighbourhood Statistics

• Area concepts defined by measures
• environment
• urban areas
• connectedness

• Local units, Local measures
• regional industry/employment analysis
• devolved country studies
• LA performance and service delivery

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Geographic legacy

• Vast number of boundaries
• Scale of boundary changes
• Census outputs based around collection districts
• Postcodes as links
• Events referenced by programme-specific
  boundaries (e.g. police force areas)
• Mapping power applied to few data holdings
• Expanding range of small area information

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Neighbourhood Statistics geography

• Solving the trade-off between currency and
  stability
• Referencing Grid references. Moving away from
  postcodes, wards, etc.
• Building brick the Output Area - providing a
  stronger, longer link between the Census and
  other sources
• Dissemination Super Output Areas - Moving away
  from the electoral ward as a basis of small area
  estimation

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OLD
NEW
Region
Region
Local authority
Local authority
Super output areas level 1
Electoral ward
Super output areas level 2
Super output areas level 3
Enumeration
(Census)
districts
output areas
Address/Grid
Postcode
referencing
referencing
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Where are we going next?
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Next NeSS release

• Move to query-based system?
• Better access for professional users

Output to exact
aggregate of
COAs
,
SOAs
,
LADs
Choose
Choose
Choose
area/boundary
dataset(s)
year(s)
version
Output best fitted
to non-
aggregatable
area