Marcel van Kints

1
Revision of the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP) publication by the UNSD

• Marcel van Kints
• United Nations Statistics Division/DESA

2
Background

• Why revise the IIP publication?
• The most recent UN publication on the IIP was
  published in 1950
• Methods and approaches have changed over time
  (e.g. fixed weight to chain approaches, etc) and
  
• Various related standards and international
  recommendations have been updated over time (e.g.
  IRIS, SNA, PPI, classifications). These need to
  be reflected in updated IIP text.
• The revision of the IIP has been carried out at
  the request of the United Nations Statistical
  Commission.

3
Process and timetable for revision

• Discussion of topics/issues at UN expert group
  meeting in 2005 2007
• UN IIP country practices questionnaire to all
  countries Sept 07
• Initial draft and input from countries/organisatio
  ns Jan 08
• 1st draft by the UNSD April 08
• Review of 1st draft by experts (STESWP, UN expert
  group) end July 08
• Revised draft for expert comment Sept 08
• Worldwide consultation Oct/Nov 08
• Submit to UN Statistical Commission Mar 09

4
Objectives of revised IIP publication

• Outline practical and suitable measurement
  methods and document issues and benefits from
  recent theoretical and practical work in the
  area.
• It is intended for compilers and users of indices
  of industrial production.
• It helps compilers to produce index numbers in
  comparable ways so they can serve as reliable
  international comparisons of economic performance
  and behavior using the best international
  practices.
• This publication also assists countries that plan
  to set up a more comprehensive systems of volume
  measures by providing not only the methodological
  foundations for the index number compilation, but
  also by giving practical guidance on individual
  steps and elements of the compilation process.
• It is recognized that due to practical
  constraints, some of the recommendations in this
  publication may not be immediately attainable by
  all statistical offices and, therefore, should
  serve as guideposts for agencies as they revise
  and improve their IIP programs.

5
Key issues/recommendations

• 1 Publication Structure
• Part I includes a description of the
  international recommendations on index numbers of
  industrial production, covering the scope of
  industrial production, fundamental concepts, etc.
  It is encouraged that countries comply with the
  recommendations set out in Part I.
• Part II includes international guidance to assist
  countries in implementing the international
  recommendations presented in Part I. It presents
  a set of methods (categorized as preferred,
  alternative and other) and variables for each
  ISIC Rev. 4 class in-scope of this publication
  for the compilation of an IIP. This information
  is based on current country practices that have
  been surveyed for this purpose and is intended to
  provide guidance to countries in setting up or
  revising their IIP calculation.

6
Key issues/recommendations

• 2 Statistical units, classifications business
  register
• Recommendations outlining - Statistical Units to
  use classifications use of business registers
  and data sources (incl. administrative data
  sources).
• 3 Frequency
• Publication recommends monthly compilation of the
  IIP so turning points in economic activity can be
  identified at the earliest possible point in
  time.

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Key issues/recommendations

• 4 Laspeyres index recommended with annually
  updated weights
• Laspeyres recommended
• Annual update of weights provides an up-to-date
  weighting structure for the index. Feasibility?
• 5 Benchmarking the IIP to the Annual National
  Accounts
• Aim to present a consistent picture (annual and
  sub-annual) about the economy to users. Comments?

8
Key issues/recommendations

• 6 Scope of the IIP
• Scope is defined to cover activities in sections
  B through E of ISIC rev.4, i.e. Mining,
  Manufacturing, Electricity, gas steam and
  air-conditioning supply, as well as water supply,
  sewerage, waste management and remediation
  activities. This scope coincides with the scope
  of the International Recommendations for
  Industrial Statistics 2008, which includes the
  index numbers of industrial production in its
  list of recommended indicators.

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Key issues/recommendations

• The IIP scope now includes Sewerage and
  collection and treatment of waste in section E of
  ISIC Rev.4 new areas for inclusion in the IIP.
• In general, the publication lists the following
  to compile the IIP
• a volume indicator (e.g. tonnes of waste) as the
  preferred approach
• a volume indicator (e.g. hours worked) as the
  alternate method and
• A volume indicator (e.g. number of persons
  employed) as the other method.
• Are there better measures for these activities
  that should be suggested?

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Next steps

• Review of 1st draft by experts (UN Expert Group
  Meeting on Industrial Statistics in NY July
  15-17, 2008) end July 08
• Revised draft for expert comment Sept 08
• Worldwide consultation Oct/Nov 08
• Submit to UN Statistical Commission Mar 09

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Thank you

• Thank you for your input on the draft IIP text.
• My contact details if you have any further
  questions or comments
• Email vankints_at_un.org