Simulating Operating

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• Simulating Operating Support Costs Using System
  Dynamics

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OSCAM Conference 2006

• Program Update
• OSCAM Overview
• Training User Support
• Future Efforts
• DMT templates

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• OSCAM Program Update

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Whats happened in the Last Year?

• Entered OSCAM Ship v7.0 and Air v3.0 into NMCI
  testing process
• Released OSCAM Air historical dataset users
  guide
• Released OSCAM Air DMT users guide
• Released FY06 Historical Ship datasets
• Held 3 OSCAM Air training courses
• Held 3 OSCAM (Naval Suite) training courses

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• OSCAM Overview

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Introduction

• The Operating and Support Cost Analysis Model
  (OSCAM) is a Windows-based application.
• OSCAM provides a dynamic, flexible OS cost
  estimating model to support a variety of
  projects
• Life cycle cost estimates
• Total ownership cost analyses
• Analyses of alternatives
• Trade-off studies
• The model provides historical data sets based on
  the Visibility and Management of Operating and
  Support Costs (VAMOSC) database.

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OSCAM(Air) Historical Data Sets
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OSCAM Management Team
OSCAM was developed through a strategic
partnership between the Naval Center for Cost
Analysis (NCCA) and the UK Ministry of Defence
(UK MoD) with support from HVR Consulting
Services Ltd.

• HVR Consulting Services Ltd
• Alton, United Kingdom
• OSCAM Software Development
• OSCAM Web Site Administration
• UK Help Desk

• Ministry of Defence
• Bristol, United Kingdom
• OSCAM Program Management for UK

• Naval Center for Cost Analysis
• Naval Surface Warfare Center,
• Carderock Division
• Washington DC, United States of America
• OSCAM Program Management for US
• US Help Desk

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OSCAM Development History
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What Is System Dynamics?
A Structured Approach to Aid in the
Understanding of Complex Systems
System Dynamics

• A Systemic Approach
• Capturing the whole
• Often high level
• Includes management

• Time Evolutionary View
• Dynamic
• System behavior

Influence Diagrams
Time-Based Simulation
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System Dynamics Example

• Suppose you are taking a trip this summer to a
  foreign destination and you want to know how
  early to get to the airport to ensure that you
  get through security in time.
• How would you model this?

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System Dynamics Theory
Fuel Prices
Hours of daylight
Ticket Prices



Passengers
X-Ray Machines



Airport Security Pass Through Time
Security Experience Level


Security Personnel




Winter Wear
Summer Wear
Threat Level


Outside Temperature
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The OSCAM model

• OSCAMs use of System Dynamics theory to estimate
  future OS costs is more powerful than
  traditional techniques (i.e. Excel).
• OSCAM utilizes simulation that runs through a
  series of time-steps which allows the model to
  estimate each month of the systems service life.
• The tool is ideal for evaluating OS what-if
  scenarios with respect to cost and availability.
• The model is based on a series of equations that
  focus on the true cost drivers of a system. By
  using logical relationships, OSCAM strives to
  model the real world.

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The OSCAM Model

• The model is not a black-box.
• OSCAM users have complete insight into the
  equations and relationships that are used via the
  built-in help functions and model structure
  document.
• The model facilitates understanding of OS
  processes, OS costs, and the interdependencies
  that exist.
• OSCAM encourages a team approach it can be used
  throughout the life cycle by logisticians, cost
  analysts, engineers, etc.
• OSCAM provides a standardized, yet flexible
  approach to estimating / analyzing OS costs and
  availability.

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OSCAM Inputs

• VAMOSC based data records (Provided with OSCAM)
• Data Management Tool (DMT)
• Other databases

DMT Data Entered and Organized by WUC
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OSCAM Outputs Cost

• Personnel
• Mission
• Support
• O-Level Maintenance
• Unit Level Consumption
• Fuel
• Consumable/Repair Parts
• Unscheduled Depot Maintenance
• Ordnance
• Temporary Duty
• Intermediate Maintenance
• AIMD
• I-Level Consumables
• CLS
• PDM/Overhaul
• Additional Contractor Support

• Sustaining Support
• Support Equipment Maintenance
• Modernization
• Sustaining Engineering
• Software Maintenance
• Simulator Operations
• Technical Data
• Other
• Program Related Logistics
• Indirect Support
• Personnel Support
• Installation Support
• Installation Support Non-Pay
• Total Disposal
• Disposal
• Salvage

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OSCAM Outputs Non-Cost

• Aircraft Available
• System Shortfall
• Maintenance Hours
• Unscheduled
• O-Level
• I-Level
• Scheduled
• Req. Enlisted Maintainer Hours
• O-Level
• Unscheduled
• Scheduled
• I-Level
• PDM/Overhaul Backlog
• Emergency Repair Backlog
• Scheduled Modernization Tasks Outstanding

• Availability
• Down-time
• PDM/Overhaul
• Modernization
• Aircraft No Longer in Service
• Retired
• Attrited
• Average Aircraft Flying Rate
• Deployed
• Non-Deployed
• Total Flying Hours
• Deployed
• Non-Deployed

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Example
Time
Aircraft Service Life

Depot Maintenance
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Example
Depot Maintenance

Fuel Costs

Depot Maintenance Costs
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Example
System Dynamics allows realistic phasing of costs
and the ability to analyze aging impacts.
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OSCAM Features

• Delta Analysis Tool
• Allows users to quickly identify the deltas
  between two different OSCAM runs
• Aggregation Tool
• Allows users to combine two or more OSCAM runs
• On-line Help Facility
• Provides users with visibility into the models
  equations
• Automated Data Source Tracking
• Denotes the origin of each input (e.g. user
  input, historical data set, etc.)
• On-line Data Auditor
• Allows users to document their methodologies,
  data references, and any other pertinent
  information

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OSCAM Features

• Sensitivity Module
• Allows users to assess how sensitive the total
  OS estimate is to particular inputs
• Uncertainty Module
• Allows users to assess the impact of
  variability/uncertainty of multiple inputs to the
  OS estimate
• Utilizes Monte Carlo simulation and triangular
  distributions
• Throughput Cost Facility
• Allows users full flexibility in entering
  throughput costs

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Possible Model Uses

• OSCAM enables analysts to evaluate alternative
  policies in terms of their effects on OS cost
  and availability. Some possible uses for OSCAM
  include analysis of the following
• OPTEMPO impact on Fuel Consumption
• OPTEMPO impact on Maintenance Requirements
• Aircraft Shortfall impact on OPTEMPO
• Aircraft Age impact on Maintenance Requirements
• Different Maintenance Philosophies
• Maintenance impact on Personnel Utilization
• Modernization impact on Aircraft Age and / or
  Organizational- and Intermediate-Level Maintenance

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How Can I Trust the Model?

• Models are completely open to customer
• Models are built in a workshop environment, with
  several organizations and subject matter experts
  involved
• Robust development process
• Build influence diagrams in workshops
• Build the PowerSim code / stock flow diagrams
  from the influence diagrams
• Create the user interface to the PowerSim code
• Rigorous VV of each step
• Trials with prototype models

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Training User Support
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OSCAM Training Courses

• 2½ day hands-on training courses
• Includes OSCAM training, the model software, and
  all subsequent updates
• 270 Navy industry representatives have been
  trained on OSCAM Naval Suite since August 1998
• Includes shipbuilders, support contractors,
  shipboard system suppliers, etc.
• 150 people have been trained on OSCAM(Air) since
  September 2003
• To register for training visit the Training
  section of our website www.oscamtools.com

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OSCAM Training Courses

• The course fee has been waived for the upcoming
  training courses!
• Upcoming OSCAM(Navy) Training Courses
• To be held at the Admiral Gooding Center in
  Washington, DC
• 10-12 July 2007
• An additional course will be held at the SPAWAR
  facility in San Diego, CA
• 11-13 September 2007
• Upcoming OSCAM(Air) Training Courses
• To be held in Patuxent River, MD
• 15-17 May 2007
• Seats are available in this course

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OSCAM User Support

• Help desk support
• Molly (301) 227 4012, mary.m.jenison_at_navy.mil
• Geoff (301) 227 3661, geoffrey.pawlowski_at_navy.
  mil
• Jeff (301) 227 1013, jeffrey.w.wolfe_at_navy.mil
• On-line help support
• F1 key to access influence diagrams
• User guides in documentation folder
• Help Help Topics
• Website www.oscamtools.com
• On-line examples, tutorials, and applications
• Question and answer forum
• News updates

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Recent and Future Uses

• Aircraft Engines
• OSCAM was discussed at the Turbine Engine
  Technology Conference in September
• JSF
• OSCAM will be the Sustainment model for all JSF
  partner countries building an OSCAM JSF model
• UAVs
• Used for recent milestone review
• LCS
• OSCAM ship is being used by both the ship builder
  and government teams
• MAMDJF
• OSCAM Ship is being used to build the OS
  estimates to support the AoA efforts
• Logistics
• OSCAM was discussed at the April meeting of the
  Washington Area chapter of the Society of
  Logistics Engineers

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Current Future Efforts

• NMCI certification testing should be complete
  soon for v7.0/v3.0
• Update Air historical datasets with data through
  FY06
• Assist in creation of OSCAM JSF
• Update Ship historical datasets with FY06 data
• Break into archives and current fleet
• Draft a ship historical dataset guide
• OSCAM Ship v8.0 is in the design/requirements
  phase

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OSCAM and VAMOSC Points of Contact

• Molly Jenison
• Program Manager
• Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division
• (301) 227 - 4012
• mary.m.jenison_at_navy.mil

• Mike Carey
• VAMOSC Program Manager OSCAM Sponsor
• Naval Cost Analysis Division
• (703) 692- 4901
• michael.j.carey_at_navy.mil

Geoffrey Pawlowski Deputy Program Manager Naval
Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division (301)
227 - 3661 geoffrey.pawlowski_at_navy.mil
Jeff Wolfe OSCAM Emeritus Naval Surface Warfare
Center, Carderock Division 301-227-1013 jeffrey.w.
wolfe_at_navy.mil
Related Web Sites www.oscamtools.com www.navyvamos
c.com www.ncca.navy.mil www.hvrgroup.com
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• Questions?