Biological Metaphors and Models for NetCentric Operations

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Biological Metaphors and Models for Net-Centric
Operations
USMA-ARI Network Science Workshop 18-20 April,
2007, West Point, NY

• Mark D. Drapeau, Ph.D.
• and
• Robert E. Armstrong, Ph.D.
• (COL, USAR (ret.))
• National Defense University

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Center for Technology and National Security
Policy
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Networks Why care?

• Military and the entire economy and well-being of
  the country network-dependent
• Current knowledge of structure, dynamics, and
  behavior of networks is primitive
• DoD can help lead a de-fragmenting effort in
  research on network science
• Can we exploit general laws of networks to better
  fight the enemy?

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Network-centric warfare
300 Manned Systems
2500
200 Unmanned Air Vehicles
Class IV
Class III
Class II
Class I
Command and Control Vehicle
Infantry Carrier Vehicle
60 NLOS-LS

• Unattended Munitions
• NLOS LS
• Intelligent Munitions System

130 UGS
Unattended Ground Sensors
Mounted Combat System
Recon and Surveillance Vehicle
200 Unmanned Ground Vehicles
ARV Aslt
ARV RSTA
Non-Line of Sight Cannon
Non-Line of Sight Mortar
Small (Manpackable) UGV
Armed Robotic Vehicle
MULE (Transport)
FCS Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle
Medical Treatment and Evacuation
ARV-A (L)
MULE (Countermine)
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Examples of Complex Networks

• Internet
• Power grid
• Transportation
• C3 (FCS Unit of Action)
• Social (tribes, organizations, nations)
• Insect (bees, ants, wasps and other swarms)
• Ecosystems (nature, business)
• Cellular (neuronal)
• Molecular (metabolic)

A fundamental understanding of complex networks
is still lacking
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Net-centric operations (NCO)
INFORMATIONAL
PHYSICAL
NCO
SOCIAL
BIOLOGICAL
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Example NCO bioterror attack
agent ID
treatment
education
Civilian response
gene networks
social networks
info networks
BW attack
J-2 Intel
J-4 Logistics
J-6 Comms
Military response
affiliation networks
supply networks
telecom networks
Adapted from NRC (2005) Network Science, Ch. 3
(Robert E. Armstrong)
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Networks Known unknowns
biological social networks
behavior
content
No
Yes
No (not under stress)
telecommunications transportation networks
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CTNSP Life SciencesBiology and National Security

• Two biological concepts for understanding
  Net-Centric Ops
• Bio-metaphor Starfish and Spiders
• Bio-model Hunter-Prey interactions

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Bio-metaphors in Net-Centric Ops

• Starfish networks have catalysts, and are open
  and decentralized and rely on peers
• Spider networks have leaders, are centralized
  and hierarchical, with division of labor

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Networks two approaches

• SPIDERS
• U.S. military
• Fortune 500 Companies
• School district
• Police force

• STARFISH
• Al Qaeda
• Craigslist, Wikipedia
• Alcoholics Anonymous
• Apache Indians

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Whos the president of the Internet?

• Starfish networks are distributed, resilient,
  flexible, ambiguous, and hypermutable

NOT disorganized!
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• Principles of Starfish networks
• Open systems promote contributions
• No central intelligence - decentralized
• Attacked, becomes even less centralized
• Easy to mistake a starfish for a spider

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Geronimo and the Apaches

• Refused to acknowledge USG authority
• Geronimo not a chief but a spiritual leader,
  and catalyst / inspiration (the Nantan)
• Exerted influence over friends and relatives
• Hid in mountains, conducted raids in small groups
  but entire tribe often blamed
• Outnumbered, but fought U.S. and Mexico for 28
  years (1858-1886)
• Indian Wars Diverse people and histories, but
  formed temporary alliances for battles
• Fort Sill, OK Apache POWs held (1894-1913)

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Osama bin laden and al-Qaeda
Making the same mistake twice?

• Refused to acknowledge USG authority
• bin Laden not a chief but a spiritual leader,
  and catalyst / inspiration
• Exerted influence over friends and relatives
• Hid in mountains, conducted attacks in small
  groups but entire tribe often blamed (Islam)
• Outnumbered, but fought U.S. and Britain for 19
  years (1988- ).
• GWOT Diverse people and histories, but formed
  temporary alliances for battles
• Guantánamo Bay, Cuba AQ POWs held (2002-)

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Mistaking starfish for spiders
al-Qaeda (in
Wikipedia) Organizational
Structure and Leadership
The Chain of Command bin laden Senior
Operations Chief Al-Zawahiri Deputy Operations
Chief Al-Masri Senior Leader in Iraq Abu
Ghaith Official Spokesperson Committees
Military, Business, Law, Islamic Study, Media
1. Do al-Qaeda members actually use these titles,
as if working in Corporate America?? 2. Are we
projecting our own military/business structures
onto their organization?
Rewards for Justice
Anti-anthropology?
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Fighting a starfish network

• Change ideology (Just say no.)
• Centralize them
• Decentralized Apaches until 1913
• USG gave them cows, a scarce resource
• Apaches centralized to control cow resource
• USG came to control them (gtgt reservations)
• Decentralize yourself
  (Cant beat em, join em)

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Bio-models and NCO
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Bio-model 1.1 Social Networks

• Modularity
• Self-organization through local interactions
• Multiple levels of organization social hierarchy
• Hubs distribute information in dense network
• Robustness
• Scale Free
• Mass action of responses through cascading
  signals Shock and Awe
• Recurring circuit patterns
• Division of labor

African honeybees in attack mode
Alarm pheromone by a few guards cascades within a
minute to stinging responses by thousands of bees
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Bio-model 1.2 Swarming

• Collective, bottom-up approach for simple animals
  to solve complicated problems
• Ants, bees, termitesterrorists?
• Robustness, flexibility are properties of this
  system
• Similar, fundamental principles apply regardless
  of scale
• Swarm of termites
• Swarm of car traffic

A living bridge of ants
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Adaptive Coordinated Control of Intelligent
Multi-Agent Teams (ACCLIMATE)
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Bio-model 2.0 Hunter-Prey
Canadian lynx
limit cycles
Snowshoe hare
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Hunter-Prey COIN applications?
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Can ecological hunter-prey models help us be
proactive in COIN plans?

• Are there similarities between animal and human
  hunter-prey interactions?
• Do there exist general rules about densities and
  ratios of forces, or the environment?
• Can we harness the descriptions and mathematical
  models of animal hunter-prey interactions to
  guide COIN plans?

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dPrey
Animals Force ratios
Hi
Lo
Pred Cyanophage Prey Cyanobacteria Env
Norwegian waters
Pred Killer bee Prey Humans Env Southern
U.S.
Hi
dPred
Pred Blue whale Prey Crustaceans Env CA
coastal waters
Pred Lion Prey Zebra Env Kruger Park, SA
Lo
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dPrey
COIN Force ratios
Hi
Lo
Malayan War (48-60) Pred UK Malaya Prey
Chinese (Com) Env Jungle
Vietnam War (59-75) Pred US
(Phoenix) Prey Viet Cong (PLAF) Env Jungle
Hi
dPred
Arab Revolt (16-18) Pred Arabs
Britain Prey Ottoman Turks Env Desert
W Sahara War (76-91) Pred Maur.
Morocco Prey Polisario Env Desert
Lo
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Force ratios Disorder is cheap to create and
costly to prevent

• a ratio of force of ten or twenty to one between
  the counterinsurgent and the insurgent is not
  uncommon.
• - David Galula, COIN Warfare (1964)
• a range of 20-25 counterinsurgents for every
  1000 residents in an AO
• - Petreus Mattis,
  COIN, FM 3-24 (2006)
• the case studies of this work indicate a figure
  of about 13.26 troops per 1000 inhabitants
  provides a more historically based guideline
• - John C. McGrath
  (2006),
• Boots on the
  Ground
• Troop Density in Contingency Operations

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Initial COIN strategy

• Destroy main body of armed insurgents
• Troops opposing insurgent comeback
• Control local population

Military
Police
Political
months/years
This is a force deployment problem within COIN
20 COIN warriors for 1000 inhabitantsHow many
for 2 vs. 3?
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COIN Force Deployment
FM 3-24 20/1000?
Military
Hunter- Prey
GEN POP
CRIM
IN
IN
Diff pops same ?
Police
SSTR
13.26
Political
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Comments? Feedback?

• This is a new theoretical thought experiment.
• We welcome comments, questions, and feedback!
• Dr. Mark Drapeau
• DrapeauM_at_ndu.edu, 202-685-2406
• Center for Technology and National Security
  Policy _at_ NDU