Lecture 11: Does Public Opinion Matter

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Lecture 11 Does Public Opinion Matter?
1. Public Opinion Good or Bad? 2. The Stability
of Public Opinion 3. Who is at the Helm? 4. The
Korean War Public Opinion 5. The Vietnam War
Public Opinion 6. The Persian Gulf War Public
Opinion
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Public Opinion Good or Bad?

• The Bad School
• Walter Lippmann Public Opinion (1922)
• The Phantom Public (1925)
• Survey Results What do Americans Know?
• Stability of Opinion Is the Public Fickle?
• Conclusions Leave it to the Professionals

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Public Opinion Good or Bad?

• The Good School
• Kant, Wilson, and Gallup
• Is Knowledge Important?
• The Stability of Public Opinion
• Rational Responses to a Changing Environment
• Conclusions Listen to the Common Citizen

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Opinion Stability Foreign Policy
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Opinion Stability Spending Patterns
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Almond and Instability
Percentage of Americans Stating that Foreign
Affairs was the Most Important Problem Facing the
Country.
40
-23
Feb Apr June July
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Whos at the Helm?
H1 Public Opinion is Irrelevant H2 Public
Opinion --- determines --gt Elite Behavior H3
Political Elite --- dictates ---gt Public Opinion
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A Reciprocal Relationship?
Public Opinion
Political Elite Behavior
Leaders are Responsive to the Public -- But
Opinion Does Not Determine Behavior Leaders Shape
Opinion -- But Ability To Manipulate is
Constrained
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The Korean War
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Public Opinion The Korean War
A) Do you think the United States made a mistake
in going into the war in Korea, or not?
B) Do you think the United States was right or
wrong in sending American Troops to stop the
Communist Invasion of South Korea?
C) As things stand now, do you feel that the war
in Korea has been worth fighting, or not?
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VIETNAM WAR
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Public Opinion The Vietnam War
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Public Opinion The Vietnam War
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Public Opinion The Vietnam War
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Persian Gulf Region
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Public Opinion The Persian Gulf War
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(No Transcript)
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Public Opinion The Persian Gulf War
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Conclusions on Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

• Reciprocal Relations Are The Norm
• Unified vs. Divided Leadership
• Media Plays Central Role