Title: Aviation Training Market Outlook
1The Challenge of Growth
- Aviation Training Market Outlook
Marsha Bell
Vice President, Marketing Alteon Training
2The Airline Economic Engine
- 4 million direct jobs
- US400 billion industry supporting US3 trillion
in economic output - 24 million related jobs and US 1.4 trillion in
related effect - 4.5 of global GP
3Explosive Fleet Growth
Source Boeings 2007 Current Market Outlook
4New Airplane Deliveries Through 2026
Oceania
China
NE Asia
SE Asia
SW Asia
Mid East
Europe CIS
Africa
Latin America
North America
Percentage of Global Market
- New Single-Aisle Airplane Deliveries for 20 Years
- Asia-Pacific to receive 25
- Americas to receive 43
- Europe-Middle East-Africa-CIS to receive 32
- New Twin-Aisle Airplane Deliveries for 20 Years
- Asia-Pacific to receive 42
- Americas to receive 22
- Europe-Middle East-Africa-CIS to receive 36
Source Boeing CMO 2007
5The Worlds Fleet Will Double Over the Next 20
Years
2006
2006
18,230 airplanes
18,230 airplanes
6North America
7Asia Pacific
8Europe
9Africa Middle East
10Latin America
11Pilot Demand to Support Fleet Growth Pilot
Retirements (2006-2026)
13,000
Numbers represent the total pilots needed to
support fleet growth pilot retirements between
2006-2026
12Americas Pilot Demand
2006 Pilot Demand / New Pilot Demand
Numbers on map represent the total pilots needed
to support fleet growth pilot retirements
between 2006-2026
- Pilots needed to support fleet growth pilot
retirements - Canada and the USA will need an average of 5,600
new pilots per year - Central South America will need an average of
1,200 new pilots per year
13Europe-Middle East-Africa-CIS Pilot Demand
2006 Pilot Demand / New Pilot Demand
Numbers on map represent the total pilots needed
to support fleet growth pilot retirements
between 2006-2026
- Pilots needed to support fleet growth pilot
retirements - Europe and the CIS will need an average of 4,300
new pilots per year - Middle East, and Africa will need an average of
1,200 new pilots per year
14Asia-Pacific Pilot Demand
2006 Pilot Demand / New Pilot Demand
Numbers on map represent the total pilots needed
to support fleet growth pilot retirements
between 2006-2026
- Pilots needed to support fleet growth pilot
retirements - China will need an average of 2,500 new pilots
per year - NE SE Asia will need an average of 2,400 new
pilots per year - SW Asia Oceania will need an average of 1,000
new pilots per year
7,000 4 20,100
15Industry Impact of Forecast
- Infrastructure Build Up
- Air Traffic Management
- Ground-based systems and support
- Training resources
- Personnel Supply and Demand
- Increased churn yields decreased experience on
flight deck - Low cost carrier with higher priced pilots
- Consolidation trend accelerated
- Instructor resources
16Training Implications of Forecast
- Vertically integrated, Airline specific,
Type-specific training - Emphasis on competency metrics, regular screening
and progressive training to proficiency - Increased Human Factors (MCC/CRM) and Safety
Training (TEM, Upset Recovery) - Increased emphasis on simulation
Train for the work to be done Using tools from
the workplace
17Maintenance training shortcomings
- Aircraft visits are look but dont touch
- OJT tasks determined by aircraft need, not by
training need - OJT not coordinated with theory course
- OJT problematic for 3rd party trainees
(insurance, liability, security)
18Future Vision of Maintenance Training
- Reduced focus on systems instruction, increased
focus on training for competence - No visible distinction between theoretical and
practical training - Training is delivered in class using the same
tools as used on the line to support the aircraft - Classroom simulation replaces on-aircraft
training as it has for flight training
19Challenges for Industry
- Shift to competency-based culture and training
standards - Competency definition and measurement tools
- Global curriculum and exam standards
- Agreement on Crew Concept, TEM CRM instructor
qualifications / training requirements across all
licenses - Logging training time and competencies
demonstrated - Instructor shortage vs. instructor career path
- Recurrent training renewal
- Command competencies and training
- English language proficiency
20Can we sustain the growth?
Will we make the choices necessary?
Infrastructure Pilots and Training Maintainers
and Training