Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd

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Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd

• Hordur Thordarson
• Aviation Services Division
• Forecasting Operations
• 22 June 2004

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The Meteorological Service of New Zealand

• MWO and VAAC (Wellington VAAC)
• Aims to provide timely, accurate and useful
  SIGMETs and VAA messages.
• Seeks to improve the quality of the information
  used.

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The aim of this presentation

• Discuss the VAA format and SIGMETs.
• Discuss our operational experience via a real
  example.
• What has interaction with the aviation industry
  taught us?

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The VAA format (questions)

• Who was the VAA intended for?
• Should the VAA format be simplified?
• Should the ash envelope at 6, 12 and 18 hours
  always be specified?
• Is the expectation of accuracy associated with
  VAA too great?

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SIGMETs

• Are MWOs issuing SIGMETs when they should?
• SIGMETs should be the primary real time warning
  mechanism for end users.
• If SIGMETs are not being issued as the need
  arises, then work should be done to solve this
  problem.
• The difference between SIGMETs and Advisories
  needs to be clear.

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The eruption of Lopevi in June 2003
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Lopevi, a volcanic cone rising 5000ft above the
sea surface.
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Some flight routes to/from LAX
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Available observations from Lopevi

• Initial observation 8-June-2003 0055 UTC Ash
  up to 40.000ft. Massive rate of growth. Colour
  of plume Black/Brown becoming white at high
  altitude. (Observer at 5000ft)
• 8-June to 14-June. Received 7 direct
  observations. Only 2 of these mention ash above
  10.000ft.
• Satellite imagery was not useful.

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What does this case show?

• A high degree of accuracy can not always be
  associated with VA advisories. The ash envelope
  can not always be described with a high degree of
  precision.
• Good observations needed to produce good model
  output. Garbage in garbage out.

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What about end users?

• They need to understand the limitations of VA
  advisories.
• They might gain financially by contributing to
  the cost of direct observations.

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Lessons learned from interaction with the
aviation industry

• Their needs are relatively simple. Information
  must be easy to understand.
• Most important to have access to accurate,
  reliable information. (Useful real time data
  available on the flight deck).
• Warnings/advisories must be timely.

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What needs to be improved?

• Direct observations and remote sensing.
• Education, knowledge of typical eruption
  patterns.
• The ability of MWOs to issue SIGMETs.
• Interaction between ATS, geological and
  meteorological services.

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The VAA format (answers)

• The VAA was initially an exclusive information
  sharing mechanism between VAA Centres and MW
  Offices.
• It should be simplified
• The ash envelope at 6, 12 and 18 hours can not
  always be realistically specified.
• The expectation of accuracy associated with the
  VAA is too great at times.

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Situation within New Zealand

• An effective Volcanic Ash Advisory System is
  provided through interactions of aircraft
  operators, CAA, ACNZ, IGNS and the MetService of
  New Zealand.
• The issues illustrated in the case study do not
  present problems within New Zealand.

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