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Capital Markets

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If We Knew the Future, We Wouldn't Be ... Strategics are more averse of leverage than PE Groups ... Strategics flush with cash. Total Number of E&C Deals ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Capital Markets


1
Capital Markets The Construction IndustryEd
Klinger, BMO Capital MarketsRick Kress, The
PrivateBankTim Hall, CapitalSource
  • October 2008

2
The Orderly Markets..
Are acting like Moe, Larry Curley!
3
Future?
If We Knew the Future, We Wouldnt Be Bankers!
4
Instead, Lets Shake the Magic 8 Ball
5
Sticking To What We Do Know
CAPITAL SPECTRUM
Senior
Junior
Mezzanine
Equity
Senior Debt
Expensive
Cheaper
6
Senior Bank MarketsRick Kress, The PrivateBank
7
What Exactly Caused This?
Net Percentage of Banks Responding Tightening
Credit Standards
Factors Causing Unprecedented Tightening
  • Writedowns and further exposure to
    mortgage-related securities / commercial real
    estate
  • Writedowns and further exposure to leveraged
    loans
  • Writedowns and further exposure to SIVs / auction
    rate securities
  • Meltdowns in the commercial paper market
  • Weak economic data and recession fears

Source The Federal Reserve Board
8
This is Cyclical
Not the first time banks have tightened, wont be
the last
9
Current State of the Bank Markets
  • Dramatic slowdown since third quarter 2007
  • Nonetheless, 2007 was a record year with 1.7
    trillion of syndicated loan volume
  • However, 1Q - 3Q 2008 volume is down by over 50
    from 1Q - 3Q 2007
  • 1Q - 3Q 2007 volume was 1.3 trillion vs 0.6
    trillion in 1Q - 3Q 2008
  • Investors remain cautious
  • Cost of funding for most banks has increased
    dramatically
  • Nearly all regional banks have tightened their
    lending standards
  • Significant capital constraints
  • Poor economic outlook impacting lender behavior
    and liquidity in the bank market
  • Result is upward pressure on pricing and fees,
    tighter loan structures, and downward pressure on
    hold levels

10
Current State of the Bank Markets
  • Relationships continue to drive the bank loan
    market
  • Unfunded credit facilities exert significant
    pressure on banks overall relationship returns
  • Banks have demonstrated a willingness to commit
    to credits with returns below their internal
    hurdle rates, only if the prospects for retaining
    and/or gaining ancillary business are clearly
    visible
  • Returns on new deals are being weighted against
    buying discounted loan paper in the secondary
    markets
  • Not withstanding the above, middle market (EBITDA
    lt 50 million), non-levered (Total
    Debt/EBITDA lt 3.0x) transactions continue to get
    done, though much slower
  • Well structured, well priced transactions
  • Solid Borrower track record
  • Sensible use of funds
  • Support from relationship lenders

11
Middle Market Syndicated Loan Volume
Total Middle Market Volume by Year
in Billions
Defined as Issuers with EBITDA of 50 Million or
less Source Standard Poors Loan Commentary
Data
12
Middle Market Loan Pricing
  • The second half of 2006 and the first part of
    2007 saw record low spreads for non-levered deals
  • Then Libor 200 or less
  • As the middle market feels the effects of the
    credit crunch, spreads on non-levered deals have
    increased
  • Now Libor 300 or more
  • While pricing is certainly higher for non-levered
    deals, levered deals are much higher
  • Levered spreads L 450 or more
  • Availability of credit for middle market issuers
    has not been as affected as those in the large
    corporate market as most deals are done on a
    club basis among relationship banks
  • Even these club lenders are demanding higher
    spreads

Spreads are increasing
13
Middle Market Leverage
Rolling Three-Month Total Debt/EBITDA and Senior
Debt/EBITDA Ratios
FOR ISSUERS WITH 50MM OR LESS IN EBITDA
Total Debt/EBITDA
Senior Debt/EBITDA
Excludes Media and Telecom Source Standard
Poors Loan Commentary Data
14
But What About the Construction Industry
  • Typically not as levered as other industries due
    to bonding and cyclicality
  • Banks still the largest source of acquisition
    debt for this industry
  • Constraints on acquisition leverage in 2006 /
    2007 have kept balance sheets relatively sane
  • Strategics are more averse of leverage than PE
    Groups
  • Leverage only retreated about 0.75x to 2.5x
    3.0x compared to a 1.5x retreat for the overall
    market (2007 vs. 3Q 2008)
  • Banks and sureties continue to look at different
    financial metrics which can make loan structuring
    difficult
  • Sureties not as worried about collateral, want
    Tangible Net Worth
  • Banks show me cash flow! Tangible Net Worth is
    just a number

CE Balance Sheets remain relatively healthy
15
Equity Contribution
  • Average equity contribution to LBOs now
    averaging 44 (vs. 33 in 2007)

Average Equity Contribution for Leveraged Buyouts
44.0
41.9
40.6
40.0
39.5
37.8
35.7
35.1
33.6
32.9
32.1
31.7
30.0
26.2
25.2
23.7
22.9
Equity as a Percent of Total Sources
22.0
20.7
13.4
9.7
7.0
Source Standard Poors Loan Commentary Data
16
How Banks Structure A Loan
  • When participating in a loan, banks now, more so
    than before, consider the all-in-return (what
    ancillary business can I cultivate from the
    company)

Its a Balancing Act
17
Sample of Key Terms
General Parameters
18
Mezzanine MarketsTim Hall, CapitalSource
19
What is Mezzanine Debt?
  • Subordinated debt or preferred equity
  • Ranks behind senior bank debt but above equity
  • Higher cost than senior bank debt
  • Structure
  • Cash interest
  • PIK interest
  • Ownership via warrants
  • Primarily used in leverage buyouts

20
Benefits of a Mezzanine Financing
  • Deep and aggressive market
  • No amortization, bullet maturity
  • Structured as senior subordinated notes or
    preferred stock
  • Less restrictive covenants
  • Priced well below private equity returns
  • Equity co-invest or warrants might be required
  • Buy and hold mentality total return approach

21
Mezzanine Market Update
  • Continued expansion of mezzanine providers
  • New entrants (Carlyle, BlackRock Kelso)
  • Numerous hedge fund entrants
  • Follow-on funds (Blackstone-II, Hancock-III,
    Audax-III)
  • While low to mid-teens all-in coupon structures
    were the norm 12 months ago, mid-to-high teens
    returns are standard today with the potential
    need for an equity co-invest or warrants
  • Transaction size normally ranges from 15 million
    to 200 million

Recent upward pressure on returns, but not nearly
as affected as the rest of the credit markets
22
What Mezzanine Investors Generally Look For
  • History of profitable operations and margins that
    meet or exceed industry averages
  • Solid revenue growth and diversified cash flows
  • Proven and experienced management teams that are
    financially motivated through equity ownership
  • Leading and defensible market positions
  • Ability to support a current pay coupon and pro
    forma debt levels

Strong appetite for growing, profitable companies
23
Summary of Key Terms
Mezzanine Debt
Unsecured subordinated obligation
Ranking
5 - 7 year bullet maturity
Maturity
None
Amortization
Similar to senior credit facility, but 10 - 15
less restrictive
Covenants
Typically NC2, 105 in year 3, declining annually
thereafter
Prepayment
15 - 19
Total Return
  • 2.0 - 3.0 closing fee
  • 10.0 - 12.0 cash coupon
  • 3.0 - 7.0 PIK coupon and
  • Equity co-invest or warrants, if
  • necessary

Components of Total Return
24
Summary of Key Terms
Mezzanine Debt
Senior Debt
Unsecured subordinated obligation
Senior Secured
Ranking
5 - 7 year bullet maturity
3 - 5 years
Maturity
None
None if Revolver Term Loan amortization depends
on use of Funds
Amortization
Similar to senior credit facility, but 10 - 15
less restrictive
Debt / EBITDA Fixed Charge Ratio Tangible Net
Worth
Covenants
Typically NC2, 105 in year 3, declining annually
thereafter
Allowed, with no penalties
Prepayment
15 - 19
Depends on each bank
Total Return
  • L 300 450 bps (cash coupon) and
  • 1.0 - 3.0 closing fee
  • 3.0 LIBOR floor
  • 2.0 - 3.0 closing fee
  • 10.0 - 12.0 cash coupon
  • 3.0 - 7.0 PIK coupon and
  • Equity co-invest or warrants, if
  • necessary

Components of Total Return
25
Equity and MA MarketsEd Klinger, BMO Capital
Markets
26
Public Comparable Stock Performance
3 Year Relative Price Performance
Index Members
CONSTRUCTION Granite Construction (GVA) Perini
Corp. (PCR) Sterling Construction (STRL) DESIGN
ENGINEERING Aecom Technology (ACM) Stantec
(TSXSTN) Tetra Tech (TTEK) INTEGRATED Chicago
Bridge (CBI) Foster Wheeler (FWLT) Fluor
(FLR) Jacobs Engineering (JEC) McDermott
(MDR) Shaw Group (SGR) URS Corp. (URS) SPECIALTY
INDUSTRIAL Comfort Systems (FIX) EMCOR Group
(EME) Dycom (DY) MasTec (MTZ) Matrix Service
(MTRX) Quanta Services (PWR)
Indexed Value
44.1
28.1
27.3
(15.9)
(17.3)
Source Factset Note Updated as of October 14,
2008
27
Publicly Traded Valuations
EV / EBITDA
EV / EBITDA
Note See previous page for index members
3 Year Historical EV / EBITDA
Historical Averages
Construction 8.5x
EV / EBITDA
Design Engineering 12.3x
Integrated 13.8x
Specialty Industrial 11.8x
Note See previous page for index members
updated as of October 14, 2008
Valuations have declined with the rest of the
market
28
Public vs Private Valuations
  • Public valuations tend to be higher than private
    MA transaction multiples due to
  • Short-term outlook of Wall Street vs longer-term
    cyclical outlook of acquirers
  • Size discrepancy breadth of service
    capabilities
  • Multiple end markets and geographic focus tend to
    smooth results
  • Access to multiple sources of capital provides
    investors with comfort
  • Valuations across sub-sectors limited by
  • Bonding requirements sureties focus on tangible
    net worth
  • Cyclicality of industry sustainability of
    earnings
  • Vulnerability of problem jobs

29
What Drives Value?
  • Companies with lower project risk higher
    recurring service revenue
  • Design Engineering firms vs. Contractors
  • Maintenance vs. New Construction
  • Hot end markets including
  • Industrial maintenance and turnaround
  • Environmental
  • Energy/Power
  • Infrastructure
  • Healthcare
  • Education

30
Why the Interest?
  • Buyers have access to capital
  • Geographic expansion
  • Shortage of skilled labor
  • Diversification of services
  • Diversification of end markets

31
U.S MA Activity Down nearly 43 in 2008
U.S. MA Activity
Volume ( in billions)
Private Equity Activity
Source Thomson Reuters
32
EC MA Activity
  • EC MA Activity Overview
  • Robust volume dominated by large number of small
    deals
  • 30 of EC deals have a disclosed value
  • Over 60 of 2007 deals with disclosed values were
    under 25 million with a median deal size of
    17.3 million
  • 1H 2008 MA activity on track with 2007 total
    transaction values lower due to lack of large
    deals
  • Activity driven by
  • Solid fundamentals
  • Availability of private equity capital needing to
    be deployed at reasonable multiples
  • Strategics flush with cash

Total Number of EC Deals
Number of Deals
EC Deals with Disclosed Values
Value of Deals
Number of Deals
MA activity within the EC sector remains strong
33
EC Buyers Overview
Strategic North American
Strategic International
Private Equity
  • Strategic buyer interest will be driven by one or
    more of the following factors
  • Expertise and capabilities
  • Service offerings
  • Geographic coverage
  • Customer relationships
  • Ability to recognize and pay for potential
    synergies
  • Current strong public market valuations may
    provide public acquirers with a valuable currency
    and create a strong ability to pay
  • International buyer interest will be driven by
    one or more of the following factors
  • Grow existing operations in U.S.
  • Entrance into the U.S.
  • Customer relationships
  • Expertise
  • Weak US will help to attract foreign buyers
  • Synergies may be limited unless buyer already has
    North American presence
  • Financial buyer interest will be driven by one or
    more of the following factors
  • Market leadership
  • Strong management
  • Growth opportunities
  • Platform for acquisitions
  • Investors value growth and cash flow generation
  • Valuations limited by targeted returns and lack
    of synergies
  • Leverage limited by bonding requirements and
    credit crunch

Focus on strategic fit and
geographic expansion
Focus on North American footprint
and access to customers
Focus on cashflow characteristics, platform and
quality asset
34
Private Equity Ownership
Private Equity Ownership
  • Access to growth capital
  • Management usually continues to run the business
  • Shareholder liquidity (cash offers)
  • Potential synergies with any existing CE owned
    firms
  • Significant amount of capital waiting to be
    deployed

Positives
  • Few Private Equity firms truly understand the CE
    space
  • May potentially lose equity upside
  • Usually increases leverage sureties need to be
    comfortable
  • Hold horizon may vary return driven

Issues / Concerns
35
Equity Contribution
  • Average equity contribution to LBOs now
    averaging 44 (vs. 33 in 2007)

Average Equity Contribution for Leveraged Buyouts
44.0
41.9
40.6
40.0
39.5
37.8
35.7
35.1
33.6
32.9
32.1
31.7
30.0
26.2
25.2
23.7
22.9
Equity as a Percent of Total Sources
22.0
20.7
13.4
9.7
7.0
Source Standard Poors Loan Commentary Data
36
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