Nature of global climate change, 19002000

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Nature of global climate change, 1900-2000
October 4, 2007

• Mohammed Anwer
• School of Engineering Computer Science
• Independent University, Bangladesh

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Presentation Layout

• Background Rationale
• Objectives
• Data Source Selection
• Methods of Analyses
• Results
• Conclusions

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Background, Climate Change

• Change in Weather
• Temperature Change
• Rainfall, Snow Fall
• Extreme Weather Conditions

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Background, Climate Change
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Background, Climate Change
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Background, Climate Change
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Background, Climate Change
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Background, Climate Change

• Damage to ecosystem
• Melting of glaciers
• Spread of diseases
• Financial impacts

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Background, Climate Change

• We admit at the outset that we know little about
  the science of global warming. How much, if at
  all, the earth is warming whether any warming is
  a trend or the result of random variations in
  global weather patterns and, if a warming trend
  does exist, how much of it is owing to human
  activity are questions we cannot answer.

J. R. Clark and D. R. Lee (2004) Global Warming
and Its Dangers, The Independent Review, 8, 4,
591597.
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Background, Climate Change

• Temperature rise, 0.8 ºC to 3.5 ºC
• Simulation, not actual
• Questionable, widely varying

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Background, Climate Change
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Background, Climate Change
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So what is actually happening to the climate?
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Objectives

• To find the actual trend
• Analyze climate variables
• Statistical, time series analyses, thermodynamics

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Data Source

• National Climate Data Center(http//ncdc.noaa.gov
  )
• Global Surface Summary of the Day, 1929 to
  present(ftp//ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/gsod/)
• Global Historical Climatogical Network, 1835 to
  1990(ftp//ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/)

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Data Source, GSOD

• More complete
• Daily record of pressure, maximum temperature,
  minimum temperature, dew point, rainfall, wind
  velocity, visibility, snow depth
• Example
• STN--- WBAN YEARMODA TEMP DEWP
  SLP STP VISIB
• 030050 99999 19291001 45.3 4 40.0 4
  1001.6 4 9999.9 0 17.1
• WDSP MXSPD GUST MAX MIN PRCP
  SNDP FRSHTT
• 4 4.5 4 8.9 999.9 51.1 44.1
  0.00I 999.9 000000

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Data Source, GHCN

• Limited Data
• Monthly record of maximum temperature, minimum
  temperature, rainfall
• Example
• 2034192300101931 275 278 328 341 318 331
  309 319 320 314 283 268

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Data Source, Issues

• GSOD, 1929 contains only 22 stations 2006
  contains 9,939 stations
• Data in GHCN, but not on GSOD
• Example of stations details

• GSOD and GHCN data were combined
• At least 50 years of data was used
• Stations within 5 km were considered same

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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature
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Temperature, Histogram
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Temperature, Global Pattern
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Temperature Change, Histogram
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Temperature Change, Global
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Global Rainfall
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Snow Depth
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Correlation X(t) Y(t)

• Autocorrelation,
• Cross Correlation,

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Autocorrelation, Temperature
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Cross Correlation, Temp Pres
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Cross Correlation, Temp Pres
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Spectrum

• Fourier transform of RXX
• Spectrum of Temperature

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Spectrum, Temperature
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Spectrum, Temperature
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Energy in the Atmosphere
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Total Energy Change
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Change in Entropy
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Total Entropy Change
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Conclusion

• Climate change is far more complicated than the
  simplistic view taken
• Actual change is more than predicted
• GCM modeling is utterly inadequate
• Entropy shows that the earth system is more
  close than open
• Climate change is not reversible
• Many more conclusions . . .

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Claps please!