Global Warming

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Global Warming

• What Does It Mean?
• Impacts of Climate Change

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Main Findings of IPCC-WG I

• Human activities are changing the atmospheric
  concentrations of greenhouse gases.
• There is extensive and widespread evidence that
  the Earth is warming we are already seeing the
  first clear signals of a changing climate.
• There is new and strong evidence that most of the
  warming observed over the last 50 years is
  attributable to human activities.
• Global temperature will rise from 2.5 to 10.4F
  over this century. Precipitation patterns will
  change, sea level will rise and extreme weather
  events will increase.

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Feeling the effects

• In Canada we are already feeling the effects of
  climate change
• increasing number and intensity of heat waves
• hotter summers and higher level of smog in major
  cities
• declining water levels in the Great Lakes
• melting of polar ice
• insect infestations in BC forests
• changes in fish migration patterns

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Forest Fires in Canada
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Temperature changeCanada and the Globe
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Canada Temperature Changes
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Change in Arctic Ocean Summer Ice Cover
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Arctic Sea Ice

• Sea ice extent has been declining since the 1970s
  and there has been an increase in the length of
  the summer melt season.

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Global Sea Ice Extent , 1900-2000
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Climate, Productivity and Habitat
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Habitat and Productivity
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Ecozones
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Permafrost in Canada
Present
2xCO2
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Changes to Permafrost

• At present, the permafrost regions extend over
  about 48 of the Canadian land mass.
• Cold stable permafrost makes up 47 of
  permafrost.
• Warm unstable permafrost comprises 33 of the
  total.

• Under 2xCO2 warming, it is estimated that the
  permafrost regions in Canada would be reduced to
  21 of the land mass - less than half its present
  extent.
• Cold stable permafrost would be reduced the most
  (to only 37). 
• Warm unstable permafrost would comprise 38 of
  the total.

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Rising Seas The Future

• One of the most striking consequences of global
  warming will be the associated rise in global
  mean sea level.

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Delaware Bay
Over the next century, sea level is most likely
to rise 55-60 cm along most of the U.S. Atlantic
and Gulf Coasts. The 3.5-meter contour roughly
illustrates an area that might be
flooded over a period of several centuries.
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Sea Level and Coastal Erosion
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Other Impacts of Climate Change

• A changing climate will strongly influence the
  pattern of agriculture, level of
  biodiversity, availability of water, spread of
  human disease organisms and the intensity and
  frequency of severe weather events.

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http//www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs/ccs_e.htm
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What to do?

• Human influence on climate will continue to grow
  during the next century unless measures are taken
  to reduce GHG emissions.

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Agenda 21 Climate Action

• Recent trends show that global emissions of
  greenhouse gases continue to rise, and are not
  expected to abate in the absence government
  imposed controls.
• The 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change
  established the objective of stabilizing
  atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
  "at a level that would prevent dangerous
  interference with the climate system."

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Slowing Global Warming

• Reduce emissions - the quickest, cheapest, most
  effective way to reduce emissions is to use
  energy more efficiently.

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Kyoto Protocol

• The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on
  Climate Change, negotiated by over 160 countries
  in December 1997.
• The agreement would require 38 industrialized
  countries to reduce the emissions of six major
  greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2 percent
  during the 2008-2012 period.

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Kyoto Targets
Australia 8 Canada -6 European
Union -8 Iceland 10 Japan -6 New
Zealand 0 Norway 1 Poland -6 Russian
Federation 0 United States -7
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How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?
Data Sources United States Department of Energy,
Energy Information Administration, International
Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
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How Effective is it?

• According to global carbon emission projections,
  even with the agreement, emission levels in 2010
  are still expected to be more than 30 percent
  higher than 1990 levels.
• The emission cuts by industrialized countries
  will be more than offset by emission increases
  from developing countries that are not bound by
  emission limitations under the Kyoto Protocol.