www'pagesigbp'org

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PAGES is the IGBP core project charged with
providing a quantitative understanding of the
Earth's past climate and environment.
www.pages-igbp.org
The PAGES IPO is supported by the US and Swiss
National Science Foundations and NOAA.
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Why studying PAstGlobalChangES?

• Reliable climate prediction depends on
  understanding natural modes of decadal scale
  variability.
• Paleo data put recent changes in a long term
  context.
• Paleodata and models provide clues to
  understandingprocesses occurring in the Earth
  system

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PAGES Areas of Interest
IGBP
Past Geosphere Biosphere Dynamics
food systems
carbon
water
Past Ecosystem Processes and Human Dimensions
Past Climate Dynamics
IHDP
WCRP
Outreach
Data
Modeling
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PAGES Activities

• Assessment of past environmental changes
• Organization of international research
• Establishment of accessisble, high-quality paleo
  data archives
• Provision of high resolution data for predictions
• Educational and capacity building in developing
  countries

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PAGES Phase 2 (2003 - )
FOCI

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PANASH
Paleoenvironment of the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres
PEP I Americas PEP II Austral-Asia PEP III
Euro-Africa
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PANASH- Example
Multi-proxy temperature reconstruction
9000
Terrestrial Macrofossils
Pollen
Coleoptera
Chironomidae
Cladocera
9500
10000
Holocene
10500
11000
Calibrated 14C years BP
11500
Younger Dryas
12000
12500
13000
Allerod
13500
14000
2 4 6 8 10 12
2 4 6 8 10 12
2 4 6 8 10 12
6 8 10 12
6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Reconstructed Mean July air temperature
Birks et al. Eds. 2000. J. Paleolim. 23 (1) 114p.
Patterns of changes are reconstructed by five
independent proxies
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CLIVAR/PAGES Intersection
The goal of CLIVAR/PAGES intersection is to
improve the understanding of decadal to
centennial climate variability PMIP
Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison
Project ARTS Annual Records of Tropical Systems
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CLIVAR-example
Analysis of documentary typhoons with annual
tree-ring chronology of climate confirms a
negative correlation with El Nino
Elsner and Liu 2001. Annals of The Association of
American Geographers
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IMAGES
The overriding IMAGES science issue is to
quantify climate and chemical variability
to determine its sensitivity to identified
internal and external forcings, and to determine
its role in controlling atmospheric CO2
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IMAGES-Example
Revision of global reconstructions of the Ice
Age Earth
Lowering of the eustatic sea level indicated
by coral reef and coastal sediment core data
Schneider et al. PAGES News 2000-2
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Polar Programs
Paleoclimate and environmental variability in
polar regions
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Polar- Example
The North-South anti-phase raises the importance
of understanding the climate dynamics coupling
between the hemispheres
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Ecosystem/Human Interactions
The goal of Focus 5 is to integrate past
human-environment interactions at sub-continental
scales with research and modeling based on
present day ecosystems and watersheds
Hite Human Impacts on Terrestrial
Ecosystems LUCIFS Land Use Changes and Impacts
on Fluvial Ecosystems LIMPACS Human Impacts on
Lake Ecosystems
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Ecosystem/Human- Example
Future predictions are more realistic when they
are based on paleo-data.
Shifts from deciduous to coniferous forests are
driven by climate change and land-use interactions
Bradshaw et al. 2000. PAGES News Vol. 8 no. 2
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PAGES Phase 2 (2003 - )
Initiatives

• Largely replace Tasks and Activities
• Defined goals and timelines
• Periodic reviews (lt 5 years)
• For Example GPOS (Global Paleoclimate
  Observing System)

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PAGES News

• Thematic Issues
• Science Highlights
• Program News
• Circulation 3000, 3/year

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PAGES Products
Upcoming Events

• Books and Special Issues
• Overheads
• Posters
• WEB-Database

Second PAGES Open Science Meeting Beijing, May,
2004
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www.pages-igbp.org

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