NonGeosynchronous

1
2008 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space
Transportation Forecast
John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Offic
e of Commercial Space Transportation May 16,
2008
2
Introduction

• The FAA Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast
  includes payloads open to internationally
  competed launch services procurement, other
  commercially sponsored payloads and commercially
  competed launch services for the International
  Space Station.
• Payloads that generate launch demand not
  secondaries
• Market demand not a prediction of actual
  launches

3
New to the 2008 NGSO Forecast

• Iridium 72 satellites (66 plus 6 spares), 12
  total launches
• Current revenue is good, picking up some
  Globalstar customers, potentially more revenue
  from hosted payloads, and will select a satellite
  manufacturer in Spring 2009.
• New category Orbital Facility Assembly and
  Services (OFAS)
• Regular commercial supply flights for the
  International Space Station
• Estimate based on two launch providers, upmass
  capability of SpaceXs Dragon and Orbital
  Sciences Cygnus, and the upmass model in the
  April 2008 NASA Request for Proposals document.
• Starts at 2, increasing to 4-5 launches per year
• COTS demonstration launches
• Bigelow Aerospace placeholder
• Bigelow will wait for a commercial vehicle
  capable of carrying people to orbit before
  launches of habitable modules.
• Could appear in a future forecast for launches
  of
• Modules Sundancer, a node/bus, and two BA-330
  habitats
• Supply misions

4
Satellite Forecast NGSO
276 total satellites, increase of 45 vs. 2007
forecast of 191 Telecommunications is 53 of
satellite market, Science/Other is 28, Orbital
Facility Assembly and Services is 10, and
Commercial Remote Sensing 9.
5
Launch Demand Forecast NGSO
112 launches Increase of 38 compared to
2007 forecast vs. 81 in 2007 vs. 69
in 2006 vs. 64 in 2005 vs. 51 in 2004

• Average increase of 3 launches per year vs 2007
  forecast (from 8 to 11)
• All new launches were Medium-Heavy class (8.1
  per year)
• No new small launches in 2008 compared to 2007
  (still 3 per year)

6
Sector Breakout
Telecommunications is half the market (148
satellites) but only 21.5 of the launch demand
multiple-manifesting. Science is the only
sector to decline from 2007 44 launches in
2008 vs. 52 launches in 2007 -- mostly
because of transfer of COTS launches into new
OFAS category OFAS schedule could change based
on contract selection and technical readiness.
7
Mass Distribution for Near-Term Satellites

• Iridium Next satellite mass is to be determined
• First generation satellites weigh 640 kg each
• Could launch 6 satellites at a time (72 total
  satellites)
• ORBCOMM Generation 2 mass estimate 130-150 kg
  each
• Could launch 6 satellites at a time (order of 18
  satellites, up to 48 total)

8
NGSO Near-Term Identified Manifest
9
Notes and Trends

• Russia still leads with about 63 capture of the
  near-term NGSO launch services market
  (2008-2011).
• Environmental first stage debris concerns cited
  by Uzbekistan have delayed Russian Dnepr launch
  of Thailands THEOS remote sensing satellite.
• Dnepr could relocate back to Baikonur from Yasny
  (Domborovsky) launch site.
• Only one delayed launch from 2007 did not
  carryover into 2008.
• South Africas SumbandillaSat was on Russian
  Shtil.
• South Korea plans first launch of KSLV small
  vehicle by end of 2008.
• European Satellite Radio added to forecast.
• Has been developing slowly, Ondas Media (based in
  Madrid) leads competition.
• Impact of possible XM and Sirius satellite radio
  merger is unclear so the forecast leaves previous
  Sirius NGSO plans in place.
• No new telecommunications systems to compete
  against ORBCOMM, Iridium and Globalstar.

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Historical Launches and Forecast 2008-2017

• Sustained out-year activity in 2008 forecast