Science and global environmental politics

1
Science and global environmental politics

• The Case of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

2
Science, Uncertainty Risk

• The authority of science
• Modern notion of progress
• Knowledge is power
• Perceived neutrality, objectivity (fact/value)
• Uncertainty incomplete information
• Risk probability of an undesirable event
• Policy Qs
• Which risks to mitigate?
• How to mitigate risk?
• Who decides?
• Risk assessment
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Probabilistic money is the measure
• Problems
• Future vs. present elitism nonmonetary values
  risk cultures

3
Risk Perception (Ir)rationality

• Representativeness drawing analogies
• Availability over-rating highly publicized
  risks
• Anchoring people stick to old information
• Overconfidence, denial of risk
• Subjective factors
• Autonomy more risk-accepting when voluntary
• Fairness who causes who bears risks?
• Natural causes more acceptable than human-induced

4
Epistemic Communities

• Groups of technical experts united by consensual
  knowledge and common policy goals
• Transnational scope
• Influential through state agencies, IOs, NGOs,
  media
• Agenda-setting, fact finding, developing policy
  options, implementation
• Said to be influential in many treaties
• Rational experts gt international cooperation

5
Why science does not generate rational policy

• Scientific consensus is rare
• Facts must be interpreted
• Scientists are rarely advocates
• Much policy is not based on science
• Risk of information overload
• Scientific agenda is moral, political decision
• What counts as knowledge?
• Other knowledges

6
Precautionary Principle

• Under threat to human health or environment,
  precautions should be taken even without full
  scientific proof of causality.
• ounce of prevention is worth pound of cure
• German forecaring principle (acid rain)
• Embryonic principle of international law
• Shifts burden of proof
• Promotes foresight, humility, recognition of
  interdependence

7
Ozone Depletion Agenda Setting

• CFCs the miracle compound
• Non-toxic, chemically inert, many uses
• Few makers (DuPont is 1)
• Stratospheric ozone
• O3 absorbs UV-radiation, which causes
• skin cancer, cataracts, phytoplankton death
• 1974 discovery CFCs destroy ozone
• 1978 U.S., Canada, Nordic aerosol ban
• 1977-85 fact-finding, little action

8
Science in the Ozone Negotiations

• Vienna Convention (1985)
• Antarctic ozone hole (1986)
• Not predicted by models
• Cause unknown CFCs suspected
• Negotiators advised to ignore it
• Models predicted 7 ozone loss by 2050
• Montreal Protocol (1987)
• U.S. vs. E.U. virtually no DC participation
• ICs to cut CFCs in half by 2000
• DCs can increase CFC use for 10 years

9
How did the ozone hole have an effect?

• Not predicted by models, opened door to knew way
  of framing the knowledge
• Chlorine-loading scheme
• Emerged when chlorine concentrations reached 2
  ppb
• Stabilizing Cl required 85 reduction
• U.S. position 95 cutback
• Montreal Protocol was not enough

10
Beyond Montreal

• Amendments 2/3 vote, majority of ICs DCs
• Binding on dissenters sovereignty?
• 1988 New Science
• Arctic hole
• Antarctic hole linked to CFCs
• Global ozone losses
• 1990s CFC substitutes Multilateral Fund
• Necessity for DC participation
• India China to consume 1/3 CFCs by 2008
• Grand bargain participation for development aid

11
Amending Montreal

• London, 1990 CFC phaseout by 2000
• Plus carbon tetrachloride methyl chloroform
• Multilateral ozone fund (1 B since)
• Copenhagen, 1992 phaseout by 1996
• Phase out HCFCs by 2030
• Bangkok, 1993 phase out methyl bromide
• Montreal, 1997 ban MB by 2005 (ICs)
• Beijing, 1999 HCFC freeze _at_ 1989 levels
• ICs ban by 2004 DCs by 2016
• Compliance, black market

12
Coming Attractions

• 2010 Total phase-out of CFCs, halons and carbon
  tetrachloride in developing countries.
• 2015 Total phase-out of methyl chloroform and
  methyl bromide in developing countries.
• 2030 Total phase-out of HCFCs in developed
  countries.
• 2040 Total phase-out of HCFCs in developing
  countries

13
Montreal Protocol Effectiveness

• The shining example of green diplomacy
• Ozone hole
• 1986 14 million km2
• 2006 28 million km2
• Chlorine loading near its peak
• At least a decade before it begins to heal
• Predicted to be normal mid-century
• Multilateral ozone fund
• 2.2 billion, 1991-2007
• Considered very effective

14
Relationship contrast to climate change

• Scientists increasingly outspoken
• Small, concentrated industry vs. the glue of the
  global economy
• Availability of profitable substitutes
• Science-led protocol amendment process
• Norms of universal participation and common but
  differentiated responsibility
• U.S. demands universal participation on climate
  change