Title: Oregon%20Integrated%20Land%20Use%20and%20Transportation%20Models
1Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation
Models
- Part 1 Statewide Model
- Part 2 MetroScope
- Part 3 Land Use Scenario
- Developer (LUSDR)
Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium May 1, 2007
2Model Features
Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type
Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium Simulation
MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium
LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic
3Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation
Models
Part 1 Statewide Model
- Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium
- Presented by Becky Knudson
- ODOT Transportation Development Division
- May 1, 2007
4Why a Statewide Model
- Provide forecast of interurban and interregional
traffic on state highways. - With out a statewide model, traffic forecasting
can only extrapolate past growth trends. These
forecasts are not very sensitive to land use and
transport policies. - As the state gets more populous, the amount of
interurban travel becomes more substantial.
There is a need, particularly in the I-5
corridor, to simulate the effects of present and
potential land use and transport policies.
5Modeling in Oregon
- Coordinated through Oregon Modeling Steering
Committee (OMSC) - OMSC established to
- Realize gains from shared knowledge
- Avoid duplication of effort
- Combine resources to benefit new modeling efforts
- Good progress in Travel Demand modeling
- Time to turn more attention to Land Use modeling
6Why is Land Use Modeling Important?
- Land use in most transport models is an input
into a model - Must rely on separate forecast for land use and
entered into model - Modeling land use
- Reduces land use input data burden
- Provides more objectivity and consistency
- Captures redistribution/density of land uses in
response to changes - Is more theoretically consistent
7Why Integrated Land Use Transport Models?
- Produce future land use forecasts that account
for transportation - Analyze cumulative and indirect effects of
proposed transportation projects - Evaluate compliance with land use
- Explore transportation opportunities
- Evaluate economic effects of policies
- Facilitate integrated land use and transportation
planning
8Why Use an Integrated Economic, Transportation
Land Use Model
- Transport systems affect economic production and
the distribution of land use and vise versa. - The potential impacts of transport system changes
on land use is a concern - Land use policy may be strategic manner in which
to address transportation issues - Economic, land use and transportation
relationships are complex. Predicting outcomes of
proposed policies and/or projects involves huge
computational burden. Computer models are
necessary tools for useful analysis.
9Oregons Statewide Integrated Land Use
Transport - Economic Model
- Gen1 (1999)
- Proof of Concept
- Large analysis zones
- Few industry sectors
- Only two land use types
- Simple network
- Truck freight only
10Oregons Statewide Integrated Land Use
Transport - Economic Model
- Transitional Model (Oregon2TM)
- More detail
- Modular
- Equilibrium modules
- Simulation modules
- Remains a regional model, does not include urban
detail - Consistent with MPO models
11County Boundaries (36)
12(28)
13Oregon2TM Beta Zones (519)
14Oregon2TM Alpha Zones (2,950)
15Oregon2TM Alpha Zones
16RVMPO Zones Compared to OR2TM
RVMPO zones 744 OR2TM alpha zones 154 OR2TM
beta zones 23
17Statewide Model Relationship to MPO Models
- Provide alternative population and economic
forecasts for MPO model area - Provide intercity travel data for use in MPO
external model - Provide information for major improvements that
affect travel beyond MPO boundary (e.g., Salem
Third Bridge) - Provide information to assist with future land
use allocation for MPOs with no land use model
18Structure of Oregon2 Transitional Model
19Policy Analysis
- Willamette Valley
- Bridge Limitations Study
- Newberg-Dundee EIS
- OTP
20Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation
Futures
By 2050 Willamette Valley population will
increase from 2.3 million to nearly 4
million Governor initiated a big-picture
brain-storming on alternative futures for
Oregons most populous region as well as an
agriculturally important area.
21Project Approach
- Help decision-makers understand
- How different land use and transportation
policies are likely to affect land use patterns
and state highway congestion - Sensitivities of growth patterns and highway
congestion to different land use and
transportation policies
22Findings
- Supply of land affects price and therefore where
people and jobs locate - What transportation improvements and where they
are made affects where people and jobs locate - How people pay for transportation affects where
they locate
23Legislative Directive to Study a New Freeway in
Eastern Oregon
The 2001 Legislature asked If a new freeway is
constructed in Central or Eastern Oregon, will it
divert traffic and development from I-5 in the
Willamette Valley?
24Central/Eastern Oregon Freeway
- Simple Answer No.
- Analysis revealed
- New highway would increase speed and reduce
travel time from border to border - May benefit Washington or California more than
Eastern or Central Oregon - Where access to the Willamette Valley improves,
the larger market attracts more growth to Valley - Better question
- What can we do to divert traffic and development
from I-5 and the Willamette Valley to Eastern and
Central Oregon?
25Oregon Bridge Deficiency Analysis
Over 500 Oregon bridges identified in 2001 as
structurally deficient. Cost to repair/replace
4.7 billion. The statewide model used to
evaluate alternative bridge investment
strategies. Final investment plan based on bridge
cost, economic costs, community/regional impacts.
26Findings
- Model results helped to clearly identify the
problem develop a solution - Analysis showed no immediate crisis, but
predicted large losses of future jobs and reduced
production if problem is not addressed - Analysis revealed the regional and industry
impacts, which identified constituent issues - ODOT changing initial approach Fix Worst First
to Corridor Analysis implemented through a
staged repair and replacement program
27ODOT Recommendation
- 2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to address 4.7B
bridge problem - Address detour routes before interstate
construction - Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit
of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half
the cost
28Proposed Highway BypassInduced Growth Analysis
EIS for proposed bypass of two towns on a major
recreation route and commuter-shed of
Portland The model was used to examine the
potential effects on growth of population, jobs
and travel.
29Modeling/Analysis Conclusions
- A bypass would likely
- Stimulate economic growth in McMinnville
- Support greater travel for all purposes
- Have minimal effects on smaller communities in
Yamhill County - Commuter effects vary with a bypass
- Increased commuting by residents west of
McMinnville to Portland east of McMinnville - Commuters east of McMinnville shift commute from
Portland to McMinnville
30Modeling/Analysis Conclusions
- System wide
- Total number of auto trips the same for No Action
and Bypass - Total hours of travel the same for No Action and
Bypass - Total miles traveled greater with the Bypass
31Questions?
Becky Knudson rebecca.a.knudson_at_odot.state.or.us 5
03.986.4113 Transportation Planning Analysis
Unit ODOT Planning Section 555 13th ST. NE Salem,
OR 97301
32Summary of Model Features
Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type
Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium Simulation
MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium
LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic