Oregon%20Integrated%20Land%20Use%20and%20Transportation%20Models - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

About This Presentation
Title:

Oregon%20Integrated%20Land%20Use%20and%20Transportation%20Models

Description:

These forecasts are not very sensitive to land use and transport policies. ... The potential impacts of transport system changes on land use is a concern ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:89
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 33
Provided by: beckyk
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Oregon%20Integrated%20Land%20Use%20and%20Transportation%20Models


1
Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation
Models
  • Part 1 Statewide Model
  • Part 2 MetroScope
  • Part 3 Land Use Scenario
  • Developer (LUSDR)

Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium May 1, 2007
2
Model Features
Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type
Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium Simulation
MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium
LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic
3
Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation
Models
Part 1 Statewide Model
  • Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium
  • Presented by Becky Knudson
  • ODOT Transportation Development Division
  • May 1, 2007

4
Why a Statewide Model
  • Provide forecast of interurban and interregional
    traffic on state highways.
  • With out a statewide model, traffic forecasting
    can only extrapolate past growth trends. These
    forecasts are not very sensitive to land use and
    transport policies.
  • As the state gets more populous, the amount of
    interurban travel becomes more substantial.
    There is a need, particularly in the I-5
    corridor, to simulate the effects of present and
    potential land use and transport policies.

5
Modeling in Oregon
  • Coordinated through Oregon Modeling Steering
    Committee (OMSC)
  • OMSC established to
  • Realize gains from shared knowledge
  • Avoid duplication of effort
  • Combine resources to benefit new modeling efforts
  • Good progress in Travel Demand modeling
  • Time to turn more attention to Land Use modeling

6
Why is Land Use Modeling Important?
  • Land use in most transport models is an input
    into a model
  • Must rely on separate forecast for land use and
    entered into model
  • Modeling land use
  • Reduces land use input data burden
  • Provides more objectivity and consistency
  • Captures redistribution/density of land uses in
    response to changes
  • Is more theoretically consistent

7
Why Integrated Land Use Transport Models?
  • Produce future land use forecasts that account
    for transportation
  • Analyze cumulative and indirect effects of
    proposed transportation projects
  • Evaluate compliance with land use
  • Explore transportation opportunities
  • Evaluate economic effects of policies
  • Facilitate integrated land use and transportation
    planning

8
Why Use an Integrated Economic, Transportation
Land Use Model
  • Transport systems affect economic production and
    the distribution of land use and vise versa.
  • The potential impacts of transport system changes
    on land use is a concern
  • Land use policy may be strategic manner in which
    to address transportation issues
  • Economic, land use and transportation
    relationships are complex. Predicting outcomes of
    proposed policies and/or projects involves huge
    computational burden. Computer models are
    necessary tools for useful analysis.

9
Oregons Statewide Integrated Land Use
Transport - Economic Model
  • Gen1 (1999)
  • Proof of Concept
  • Large analysis zones
  • Few industry sectors
  • Only two land use types
  • Simple network
  • Truck freight only

10
Oregons Statewide Integrated Land Use
Transport - Economic Model
  • Transitional Model (Oregon2TM)
  • More detail
  • Modular
  • Equilibrium modules
  • Simulation modules
  • Remains a regional model, does not include urban
    detail
  • Consistent with MPO models

11
County Boundaries (36)
12
(28)
13
Oregon2TM Beta Zones (519)
14
Oregon2TM Alpha Zones (2,950)
15
Oregon2TM Alpha Zones
16
RVMPO Zones Compared to OR2TM
RVMPO zones 744 OR2TM alpha zones 154 OR2TM
beta zones 23
17
Statewide Model Relationship to MPO Models
  • Provide alternative population and economic
    forecasts for MPO model area
  • Provide intercity travel data for use in MPO
    external model
  • Provide information for major improvements that
    affect travel beyond MPO boundary (e.g., Salem
    Third Bridge)
  • Provide information to assist with future land
    use allocation for MPOs with no land use model

18
Structure of Oregon2 Transitional Model
19
Policy Analysis
  • Willamette Valley
  • Bridge Limitations Study
  • Newberg-Dundee EIS
  • OTP

20
Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation
Futures
By 2050 Willamette Valley population will
increase from 2.3 million to nearly 4
million Governor initiated a big-picture
brain-storming on alternative futures for
Oregons most populous region as well as an
agriculturally important area.
21
Project Approach
  • Help decision-makers understand
  • How different land use and transportation
    policies are likely to affect land use patterns
    and state highway congestion
  • Sensitivities of growth patterns and highway
    congestion to different land use and
    transportation policies

22
Findings
  • Supply of land affects price and therefore where
    people and jobs locate
  • What transportation improvements and where they
    are made affects where people and jobs locate
  • How people pay for transportation affects where
    they locate

23
Legislative Directive to Study a New Freeway in
Eastern Oregon
The 2001 Legislature asked If a new freeway is
constructed in Central or Eastern Oregon, will it
divert traffic and development from I-5 in the
Willamette Valley?
24
Central/Eastern Oregon Freeway
  • Simple Answer No.
  • Analysis revealed
  • New highway would increase speed and reduce
    travel time from border to border
  • May benefit Washington or California more than
    Eastern or Central Oregon
  • Where access to the Willamette Valley improves,
    the larger market attracts more growth to Valley
  • Better question
  • What can we do to divert traffic and development
    from I-5 and the Willamette Valley to Eastern and
    Central Oregon?

25
Oregon Bridge Deficiency Analysis
Over 500 Oregon bridges identified in 2001 as
structurally deficient. Cost to repair/replace
4.7 billion. The statewide model used to
evaluate alternative bridge investment
strategies. Final investment plan based on bridge
cost, economic costs, community/regional impacts.
26
Findings
  • Model results helped to clearly identify the
    problem develop a solution
  • Analysis showed no immediate crisis, but
    predicted large losses of future jobs and reduced
    production if problem is not addressed
  • Analysis revealed the regional and industry
    impacts, which identified constituent issues
  • ODOT changing initial approach Fix Worst First
    to Corridor Analysis implemented through a
    staged repair and replacement program

27
ODOT Recommendation
  • 2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to address 4.7B
    bridge problem
  • Address detour routes before interstate
    construction
  • Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit
    of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half
    the cost

28
Proposed Highway BypassInduced Growth Analysis
EIS for proposed bypass of two towns on a major
recreation route and commuter-shed of
Portland The model was used to examine the
potential effects on growth of population, jobs
and travel.
29
Modeling/Analysis Conclusions
  • A bypass would likely
  • Stimulate economic growth in McMinnville
  • Support greater travel for all purposes
  • Have minimal effects on smaller communities in
    Yamhill County
  • Commuter effects vary with a bypass
  • Increased commuting by residents west of
    McMinnville to Portland east of McMinnville
  • Commuters east of McMinnville shift commute from
    Portland to McMinnville

30
Modeling/Analysis Conclusions
  • System wide
  • Total number of auto trips the same for No Action
    and Bypass
  • Total hours of travel the same for No Action and
    Bypass
  • Total miles traveled greater with the Bypass

31
Questions?
Becky Knudson rebecca.a.knudson_at_odot.state.or.us 5
03.986.4113 Transportation Planning Analysis
Unit ODOT Planning Section 555 13th ST. NE Salem,
OR 97301
32
Summary of Model Features
Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type
Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium Simulation
MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium
LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com